UNC ONLY BASKETBALL 2024-25 SEASON

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BillOfRights said:
ETA: I think I've backed up my assertions with data in every post on the subject. I've done the research and shown my work. To say that's "a lazy and uninformed load of crap" seems like, well, "a lazy and uninformed load of crap".
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Your assertion is crap because the data you are using are being misapplied to suit your story.

This is not all happening in a vacuum and is not nearly as apples to apples as you are trying to bend it to be. These are two vastly different teams. Did it occur to you that whereas last season the non-RJ 3FG shooters had Bacot/RJ to free up their looks, this team still has the (even greater) overplaying solely on RJ to free up the non-RJ looks? So it makes no logical sense to say “See! Without Bacot, RJ is the only one not shooting better than last season! RJ needs to figure it out!” Not to mention that by “better” you mean +0.6% better (on fewer than half the attempts of the total number you’re comparing against), which is clearly negligible, and disingenuous to claim it’s significant.

But your applications of the data are bogus anyway, since there are different players composing those numbers, or at best a few of the same players who had a year or at least an off-season to improve. And defensive attention shifted from Bacot/RJ to *just* RJ as the sole offensive threat to focus on shutting down. Apples to oranges.
 
duluoz said:
Your assertion is crap because the data you are using are being misapplied to suit your story.

This is not all happening in a vacuum and is not nearly as apples to apples as you are trying to bend it to be. These are two vastly different teams. Did it occur to you that whereas last season the non-RJ 3FG shooters had Bacot/RJ to free up their looks, this team still has the (even greater) overplaying solely on RJ to free up the non-RJ looks? So it makes no logical sense to say “See! Without Bacot, RJ is the only one not shooting better than last season! RJ needs to figure it out!” Not to mention that by “better” you mean +0.6% better (on fewer than half the attempts of the total number you’re comparing against), which is clearly negligible, and disingenuous to claim it’s significant.

But your applications of the data are bogus anyway, since there are different players composing those numbers, or at best a few of the same players who had a year or at least an off-season to improve. And defensive attention shifted from Bacot/RJ to *just* RJ as the sole offensive threat to focus on shutting down. Apples to oranges.
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How is the data being misapplied? I'm always trying to learn. Are you saying because the players are different on this team that we can't compare them to last season, or any other season, or any other team, or NCAA averages, or anything else?
 
BillOfRights said:
How is the data being misapplied? I'm always trying to learn. Are you saying because the players are different on this team that we can't compare them to last season, or any other season, or any other team, or NCAA averages, or anything else?
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You can compare the data to whatever you want. You just can’t make a thin comparison matter as much as you seem to want it to.

Comparing RJ this year to last year comes with a whole lot of caveats and disclaimers that you seem to be dismissing or diminishing.
 
duluoz said:
You can compare the data to whatever you want. You just can’t make a thin comparison matter as much as you seem to want it to.

Comparing RJ this year to last year comes with a whole lot of caveats and disclaimers that you seem to be dismissing or diminishing.
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Compare his numbers to last season, or his Jr season, or his Soph season, or his career numbers. Show me what the numbers tell you.

www.sports-reference.com

RJ Davis College Stats | College Basketball at Sports-Reference.com

RJ Davis - Stats, Game Logs, Splits, and much more
www.sports-reference.com www.sports-reference.com

I'm not hating on him. I love that he's at Carolina. He's had an amazing career so far. I'm just pointing out somethin' ain't right, and I hope whatever it is gets resolved.
 
BillOfRights said:
Compare his numbers to last season, or his Jr season, or his Soph season, or his career numbers. Show me what the numbers tell you.

www.sports-reference.com

RJ Davis College Stats | College Basketball at Sports-Reference.com

RJ Davis - Stats, Game Logs, Splits, and much more
www.sports-reference.com www.sports-reference.com

I'm not hating on him. I love that he's at Carolina. He's had an amazing career so far. I'm just pointing out somethin' ain't right, and I hope whatever it is gets resolved.
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It’s probably something simple like no Bacot down low, or lack of a real low post threat. Somebody to clean up the offensive glass and maybe kick it out for a 3 look from RJ. How many of those inside - out passes has RJ gotten this year, for an open look at a 3? Maybe none?
I don’t know I’m just guessing.
Whatever it is, his shooting %s are way down from field and 3. His total point production is down too from last year, though it is still above his career average. His other numbers are about right compared to all other years, rebounds, assists, turnovers, steals, blocks, FT%, etc.
 
Centerpiece said:
It’s probably something simple like no Bacot down low, or lack of a real low post threat. Somebody to clean up the offensive glass and maybe kick it out for a 3 look from RJ. How many of those inside - out passes has RJ gotten this year, for an open look at a 3? Maybe none?
I don’t know I’m just guessing.
Whatever it is, his shooting %s are way down from field and 3. His total point production is down too from last year, though it is still above his career average. His other numbers are about right compared to all other years, rebounds, assists, turnovers, steals, blocks, FT%, etc.
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If it were Bacot related, I would expect it to impact the whole team. If it were bad offense, I would expect the team's numbers to be down. The team, even with Davis shooting 25.5%, is hitting a higher percentage than last season, while also taking them at a slightly higher rate. Everything points to this being a player performance issue and not a low post presence or bad offense problem. Here's to hoping he goes off on Campbell and 2025 is much better.
 
There's no way of knowing, but I sometimes wonder if NIL money takes some of the drive and need to prove themselves away from some of the players....not just on our team but around the country.
 
87 pts per game.
It ain’t scoring or offense that’s the problem.
It’s overall defense and no post presence, not enough board coverage.
It ain’t RJ not scoring enough.
It may be Elliot turning it over too much but it ain’t RJ and his 18+ ppg.
It’s the defense or lack thereof and not dominating the boards like we always do, especially on the offensive glass.

I think we will be fine in ACC play. (Think we will, but who knows?)
It would be nice if Jwash and Cade would play better. And Elliot cutting down in TO’s. 40 is way too many for only 12 games played from your starting point guard.
 
Centerpiece said:
87 pts per game.
It ain’t scoring or offense that’s the problem.
It’s overall defense and no post presence, not enough board coverage.
It ain’t RJ not scoring enough.
It may be Elliot turning it over too much but it ain’t RJ and his 18+ ppg.
It’s the defense or lack thereof and not dominating the boards like we always do, especially on the offensive glass.

I think we will be fine in ACC play. (Think we will, but who knows?)
It would be nice if Jwash and Cade would play better. And Elliot cutting down in TO’s. 40 is way too many for only 12 games played from your starting point guard.
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Defense, rebounding, and turnovers are issues, but why are we trying so hard to pretend that Carolina's best 3FG shooter making 25.5% isn't a problem?
 
BillOfRights said:
Compare his numbers to last season, or his Jr season, or his Soph season, or his career numbers. Show me what the numbers tell you.
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The numbers tell me that not everyone knows how to read the numbers. But almost everyone is convinced that they do.

It’s a team game, with different teammates, different opponents, different circumstances. Season-over-season comparisons are hardly worthless, but they can only take you so far. You are convinced that “something ain’t right” with RJ, and your interpretation of the numbers is going to fit into that story no matter what. So have at it.

My take is that something ain’t right with RJ, his teammates, and the staff. But I put it more on his teammates and HD and staff to unlock him. Developing more offensive weapons and ways to use those weapons is what will boost RJ’s productivity and efficiency. That’s what “ain’t right.”
 
BillOfRights said:
If it were Bacot related, I would expect it to impact the whole team. If it were bad offense, I would expect the team's numbers to be down. The team, even with Davis shooting 25.5%, is hitting a higher percentage than last season, while also taking them at a slightly higher rate. Everything points to this being a player performance issue and not a low post presence or bad offense problem. Here's to hoping he goes off on Campbell and 2025 is much better.
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Good points. Team wise, spot on. I was responding to others talking about RJ specifically. But I agree, it ain’t about the offense. It’s defense and rebounding…. And having a point guard turn the ball over 40 times in 12 games.
 
BillOfRights said:
Defense, rebounding, and turnovers are issues, but why are we trying so hard to pretend that Carolina's best 3FG shooter making 25.5% isn't a problem?
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That low % from a usually reliable shooter seems odd, to be sure. However, scoring 87 pts per game is enough to win games, regardless. But scoring that many points every game and losing 5 of them? Means only one thing. We can’t stop them from scoring more than us.
 
Centerpiece said:
That low % from a usually reliable shooter seems odd, to be sure. However, scoring 87 pts per game is enough to win games, regardless. But scoring that many points every game and losing 5 of them? Means only one thing. We can’t stop them from scoring more than us.
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Defense is my biggest concern as well, but I do believe that is probably the most fixable.
 
BillOfRights said:
Defense, rebounding, and turnovers are issues, but why are we trying so hard to pretend that Carolina's best 3FG shooter making 25.5% isn't a problem?
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I'd like to see a breakdown of his 3FG% when he's wide open versus closely guarded versus off the dribble and compare it to last year. If anyone has Synergy they might be able to get that info easily. That would be the best breakdown vs last year. Is he being guarded closer with no Bacot? He is definitely number 1 on the scouting report this year. strictly from eye test, it feels like he's missed more open 3s this year.
 
My eyes tell me that RJ shoots mostly contested 3s. Last season you had two other serious threats from three so teams couldn’t focus on RJ. We need to get Cade rolling.
 
Centerpiece said:
That low % from a usually reliable shooter seems odd, to be sure. However, scoring 87 pts per game is enough to win games, regardless. But scoring that many points every game and losing 5 of them? Means only one thing. We can’t stop them from scoring more than us.
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Two of the things it means is that RJ started off in a slump, purely and simply, because he missed a whole lot of wide open shots even before he started forcing bad ones and that we've lost to four teams capable of being in the Final Four and another that might do well. RJ is showing signs of getting back to form. I suspect when the ball starts going through the basketball, you'll see more concentration in every other aspect of the game.
 
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