UNC ONLY BASKETBALL 2024-25 SEASON

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BillOfRights said:
You said davis shot a ridiculous percentage last season.I showed you two hundred players that shot up better percentage. Everything else is you moving the goalpost.
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He attempted the most shots of any high major player and shot 8 3PA/game

So yeah, I will still stand by 43% given the volume and degree of difficulty of the shots he took, was ridiculous

If you want to make whatever point it is you're attempting, at least compare him to players who play a similar role

BillOfRights said:
I think Davis is awesome, and I hope he gets back to last year's form, but to blame coaching, because a player isn't performing like he has in the past, is "ridiculous".
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I'm not blaming coaching for RJ's shooting
 
BillOfRights said:
As donbosco pointed out above, when Davis' shots are removed, the rest of the team has a better 3FG% this season than last season. Davis is struggling. Rather than lazily blaming "coaching", maybe we should look at actual player performance. I'm not blaming RJ Davis, I'm not criticizing him as a player, I'm glad he's a Tar Heel and I want him taking the shots, but I want last season's Davis. Something ain't right with him, and for him, the team, and all of us, I hope he gets it figured out.
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db’s numbers show that the non-RJ 3FG% improvement season-over-season by the rest of the team is negligible (+0.6%), based on fewer than half as many attempts so far. We could very reasonably expect that number to drop by the end of the season when the attempts even out. But either way, it looks like a wash so far. So it’s silly or disingenuous to hold that up as a data point that means much by comparison.

The numbers tell me what my naked eye has told me — RJ’s production is down primarily because he no longer has the massive inside presence of guys like ARMANDO BACOT (remember him?), and Harrison Ingram to balance out the defensive attention and give him the breathing room he needs to flourish.

That’s partly on RJ to figure out, partly on HD and staff to figure out, and partly on every single player on the team to step up and be better, and make defenses pay for keying on RJ so intensely. If other options like Jackson continue to emerge, it’ll unlock RJ and his numbers will go up.

But to put RJ’s drop-off all on him is a lazy and uninformed load of crap. You don’t get to have “last season’s Davis” simply because you want it. He needs support, and a team whose offensive productivity resembles something like last season in order to be that version of himself. It should’ve been clear to everyone that, as good as he is, he’s not good enough to put an underachieving team entirely on his back with any real consistency. He’s just not that guy. If you thought he was, that’s on you, not him.
 
Of course it's always better if the players are hitting shots. What I don't like is them having to take bad shots or forced shots because of the offense they are running. A lot of times it's guys just standing around if they don't have the ball. The only screen seems to be the on ball screen at the top of the key. Everyone else without the ball just stands around and there is no movement off the ball, no screens and no cuts to get open shots. Also, a lack of a good big means there is no post offense. It's either try to go one on one into the lane or shoot a 3. The offensive scheme or lack thereof and not being able to get a good post player are my main gripes with Hubert.
 
duluoz said:
db’s numbers show that the non-RJ 3FG% improvement season-over-season by the rest of the team is negligible (+0.6%), based on fewer than half as many attempts so far. We could very reasonably expect that number to drop by the end of the season when the attempts even out. But either way, it looks like a wash so far. So it’s silly or disingenuous to hold that up as a data point that means much by comparison.

The numbers tell me what my naked eye has told me — RJ’s production is down primarily because he no longer has the massive inside presence of guys like ARMANDO BACOT (remember him?), and Harrison Ingram to balance out the defensive attention and give him the breathing room he needs to flourish.

That’s partly on RJ to figure out, partly on HD and staff to figure out, and partly on every single player on the team to step up and be better, and make defenses pay for keying on RJ so intensely. If other options like Jackson continue to emerge, it’ll unlock RJ and his numbers will go up.

But to put RJ’s drop-off all on him is a lazy and uninformed load of crap. You don’t get to have “last season’s Davis” simply because you want it. He needs support, and a team whose offensive productivity resembles something like last season in order to be that version of himself. It should’ve been clear to everyone that, as good as he is, he’s not good enough to put an underachieving team entirely on his back with any real consistency. He’s just not that guy. If you thought he was, that’s on you, not him.
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An earlier comment had made the point that Davis' numbers were down because Bacot no longer provided gravity, and my point about the rest of the team's 3FG% was to show that Bacot not being here wasn't affecting the rest of the team, so the previous comment, and yours, that it was affecting Davis to such a large degree doesn't seem valid.

Carolina is actually shooting 3FGAs a bit more often this season than last, so there really isn't anything to "even out". You "reasonably expect" the team 3FG% to drop, but I "reasonably expect" that it could go UP, as the average defensive rating of the Heels' schedule so far is ranked 6th, and the defenses that Carolina will face the rest of the season should not be that stout.

Carolina has an aOE of 118.6 and last season was 119.7. This season is down 1.1 pts/100 possessions. Davis is using 26.4% of Carolina's possessions, is on the court for 85% of Carolina's minutes, and Carolina is averaging 76 possessions/game, so Davis is averaging about 64.6 poss/game. Last season Davis made 4.9 3FG/100 possessions, and this season it's 3.1 3FG/100. This difference of 1.8 3FGs/100 is a difference of 5.4 points/100, which should more than explain the team's 1.1/100 drop. That's about 3.5 points fewer, just from 3FGs, from Davis while he's in games this season.

I'm not saying the 5 losses are Davis' fault. I'm just pointing out the team's record is less of a team offense/coaching problem than others want us to believe. The rest of the team is performing, on average, at or above last season's efficiency. If Davis' efficiency were near last season's numbers, Carolina's record would likely look significantly different than it does and not nearly as many people would be complaining as loudly about CHD.

ETA: I think I've backed up my assertions with data in every post on the subject. I've done the research and shown my work. To say that's "a lazy and uninformed load of crap" seems like, well, "a lazy and uninformed load of crap".
 
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BillOfRights said:
An earlier comment had made the point that Davis' numbers were down because Bacot no longer provided gravity, and my point about the rest of the team's 3FG% was to show that Bacot not being here wasn't affecting the rest of the team, so the previous comment, and yours, that it was affecting Davis to such a large degree doesn't seem valid.

Carolina is actually shooting 3FGAs a bit more often this season than last, so there really isn't anything to "even out". You "reasonably expect" the team 3FG% to drop, but I "reasonably expect" that it could go UP, as the average defensive rating of the Heels' schedule so far is ranked 6th, and the defenses that Carolina will face the rest of the season should not be that stout.

Carolina has an aOE of 118.6 and last season was 119.7. This season is down 1.1 pts/100 possessions. Davis is using 26.4% of Carolina's possessions, is on the court for 85% of Carolina's minutes, and Carolina is averaging 76 possessions/game, so Davis is averaging about 64.6 poss/game. Last season Davis made 4.9 3FG/100 possessions, and this season it's 3.1 3FG/100. This difference of 1.8 3FGs/100 is a difference of 5.4 points/100, which should more than explain the team's 1.1/100 drop. That's about 3.5 points fewer, just from 3FGs, from Davis while he's in games this season.

I'm not saying the 5 losses are Davis' fault. I'm just pointing out the team's record is less of a team offense/coaching problem than others want us to believe. The rest of the team is performing, on average, at or above last season's efficiency. If Davis' efficiency were near last season's numbers, Carolina's record would likely look significantly different than it does and not nearly as many people would be complaining as loudly about CHD.
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That still doesn't mean they could be doing even better if they ran a better offense.
 
whats missing from this analysis, and i am just not sure what to make of it (or even know if it is a real effect or just cognitive bias), is regression to the mean.

it seems like a lot of players who have great penultimate seasons (in terms of eligibility) dont fare as well when they return for the final year. not a lot of guys do that any more. and occasionally guys like edey find a lot success. but look at caleb love's numbers this year. way down, like rj's. i am reminded of garrison brooks. eric montross as a senior. tyler hans was great in 09 but not as great as in 08. feels like "disappointing senior season" is a common thing.

maybe its just about hunger for success.
 
Carolina Jones said:
That still doesn't mean they could be doing even better if they ran a better offense.
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It also still doesn't mean they couldn't be doing even better if they shot the ball better, or played better defense, or rebounded better, or took better care of the ball, or paid more attention to detail, or set better screens, or used screens better, or followed the coaches' instructions, or gave consistent effort, or, going out on a limb here, executed the offense better. etc.

but that still doesn't mean the team lost 5 games because the offense wasn't good enough.
 
BillOfRights said:
It also still doesn't mean they couldn't be doing even better if they shot the ball better, or played better defense, or rebounded better, or took better care of the ball, or paid more attention to detail, or set better screens, or used screens better, or followed the coaches' instructions, or gave consistent effort, or, going out on a limb here, executed the offense better. etc.

but that still doesn't mean the team lost 5 games because the offense wasn't good enough.
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But part of shooting the ball better comes with better shot selection, which comes with a offense that gets those better shots. I just think standing around and either going one on one to the basket or shooting a contested 3 aren't the best shots they could get if they ran an offense that actually used screens and movement without the ball. They can't set better screens and use screens better if they just stand around. I don't really see an actual team offense that they could execute better to begin with.
 
superrific said:
whats missing from this analysis, and i am just not sure what to make of it (or even know if it is a real effect or just cognitive bias), is regression to the mean.

it seems like a lot of players who have great penultimate seasons (in terms of eligibility) dont fare as well when they return for the final year. not a lot of guys do that any more. and occasionally guys like edey find a lot success. but look at caleb love's numbers this year. way down, like rj's. i am reminded of garrison brooks. eric montross as a senior. tyler hans was great in 09 but not as great as in 08. feels like "disappointing senior season" is a common thing.

maybe its just about hunger for success.
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I don't know if he's put too much pressure on himself to be "the man" or whatever, but he's not just dropped off from last season. His efficiency is less than his Jr and Soph seasons, too.
 
Carolina Jones said:
But part of shooting the ball better comes with better shot selection, which comes with a offense that gets those better shots. I just think standing around and either going on on one to the basket or shooting a contested 3 aren't the best shots they could get if they ran an offense that actually used screens and movement without the ball. They can't set better screens and use screens better if they just stand around. I don't really see an actual team offense that they could execute better to begin with.
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This season's eFG% is HIGHER than last season's. That means better shot selection or better shooting. (except for RJ Davis)
 
BillOfRights said:
ETA: I think I've backed up my assertions with data in every post on the subject. I've done the research and shown my work. To say that's "a lazy and uninformed load of crap" seems like, well, "a lazy and uninformed load of crap".
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Your assertion is crap because the data you are using are being misapplied to suit your story.

This is not all happening in a vacuum and is not nearly as apples to apples as you are trying to bend it to be. These are two vastly different teams. Did it occur to you that whereas last season the non-RJ 3FG shooters had Bacot/RJ to free up their looks, this team still has the (even greater) overplaying solely on RJ to free up the non-RJ looks? So it makes no logical sense to say “See! Without Bacot, RJ is the only one not shooting better than last season! RJ needs to figure it out!” Not to mention that by “better” you mean +0.6% better (on fewer than half the attempts of the total number you’re comparing against), which is clearly negligible, and disingenuous to claim it’s significant.

But your applications of the data are bogus anyway, since there are different players composing those numbers, or at best a few of the same players who had a year or at least an off-season to improve. And defensive attention shifted from Bacot/RJ to *just* RJ as the sole offensive threat to focus on shutting down. Apples to oranges.
 
duluoz said:
Your assertion is crap because the data you are using are being misapplied to suit your story.

This is not all happening in a vacuum and is not nearly as apples to apples as you are trying to bend it to be. These are two vastly different teams. Did it occur to you that whereas last season the non-RJ 3FG shooters had Bacot/RJ to free up their looks, this team still has the (even greater) overplaying solely on RJ to free up the non-RJ looks? So it makes no logical sense to say “See! Without Bacot, RJ is the only one not shooting better than last season! RJ needs to figure it out!” Not to mention that by “better” you mean +0.6% better (on fewer than half the attempts of the total number you’re comparing against), which is clearly negligible, and disingenuous to claim it’s significant.

But your applications of the data are bogus anyway, since there are different players composing those numbers, or at best a few of the same players who had a year or at least an off-season to improve. And defensive attention shifted from Bacot/RJ to *just* RJ as the sole offensive threat to focus on shutting down. Apples to oranges.
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How is the data being misapplied? I'm always trying to learn. Are you saying because the players are different on this team that we can't compare them to last season, or any other season, or any other team, or NCAA averages, or anything else?
 
BillOfRights said:
How is the data being misapplied? I'm always trying to learn. Are you saying because the players are different on this team that we can't compare them to last season, or any other season, or any other team, or NCAA averages, or anything else?
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You can compare the data to whatever you want. You just can’t make a thin comparison matter as much as you seem to want it to.

Comparing RJ this year to last year comes with a whole lot of caveats and disclaimers that you seem to be dismissing or diminishing.
 
duluoz said:
You can compare the data to whatever you want. You just can’t make a thin comparison matter as much as you seem to want it to.

Comparing RJ this year to last year comes with a whole lot of caveats and disclaimers that you seem to be dismissing or diminishing.
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Compare his numbers to last season, or his Jr season, or his Soph season, or his career numbers. Show me what the numbers tell you.

www.sports-reference.com

RJ Davis College Stats | College Basketball at Sports-Reference.com

RJ Davis - Stats, Game Logs, Splits, and much more
www.sports-reference.com www.sports-reference.com

I'm not hating on him. I love that he's at Carolina. He's had an amazing career so far. I'm just pointing out somethin' ain't right, and I hope whatever it is gets resolved.
 
BillOfRights said:
Compare his numbers to last season, or his Jr season, or his Soph season, or his career numbers. Show me what the numbers tell you.

www.sports-reference.com

RJ Davis College Stats | College Basketball at Sports-Reference.com

RJ Davis - Stats, Game Logs, Splits, and much more
www.sports-reference.com www.sports-reference.com

I'm not hating on him. I love that he's at Carolina. He's had an amazing career so far. I'm just pointing out somethin' ain't right, and I hope whatever it is gets resolved.
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It’s probably something simple like no Bacot down low, or lack of a real low post threat. Somebody to clean up the offensive glass and maybe kick it out for a 3 look from RJ. How many of those inside - out passes has RJ gotten this year, for an open look at a 3? Maybe none?
I don’t know I’m just guessing.
Whatever it is, his shooting %s are way down from field and 3. His total point production is down too from last year, though it is still above his career average. His other numbers are about right compared to all other years, rebounds, assists, turnovers, steals, blocks, FT%, etc.
 
Centerpiece said:
It’s probably something simple like no Bacot down low, or lack of a real low post threat. Somebody to clean up the offensive glass and maybe kick it out for a 3 look from RJ. How many of those inside - out passes has RJ gotten this year, for an open look at a 3? Maybe none?
I don’t know I’m just guessing.
Whatever it is, his shooting %s are way down from field and 3. His total point production is down too from last year, though it is still above his career average. His other numbers are about right compared to all other years, rebounds, assists, turnovers, steals, blocks, FT%, etc.
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If it were Bacot related, I would expect it to impact the whole team. If it were bad offense, I would expect the team's numbers to be down. The team, even with Davis shooting 25.5%, is hitting a higher percentage than last season, while also taking them at a slightly higher rate. Everything points to this being a player performance issue and not a low post presence or bad offense problem. Here's to hoping he goes off on Campbell and 2025 is much better.
 
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