US strikes Venezuela / Captures Maduro

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I think, at the core of the MAGA philosophy, is that there are no good guys. With that perspective, it is easy to view other countries as free-loading off of the United States. Thus, it is better to just go ahead and get yours; everyone else be damned. And that perspective has worked for a time, in the past, before everything falls to shit.

I've posted this before, but... from the final pages of Cloud Atlas:

"Belief is both prize & battlefield, within the mind & in the mind's mirror, the world. If we believe humanity is a ladder of tribes, a colosseum of confrontation, exploitation & bestiality, such a humanity is surely brought into being, & history's Horroxes, Boerhaaves & Gooses shall prevail. You & I, the moneyed, the privileged, the fortunate, shall not fare so badly in this world, provided our luck holds. What of it if our consciences itch? Why undermine the dominance of our race, our gunships, our heritage & our legacy? Why fight the "natural" (oh, weaselly word!) order of things?Why? Because of this: – one fine day, a purely predatory world shall consume itself. Yes, the Devil shall take the hindmost until the foremost is the hindmost. In an individual, selfishness uglifies the soul; for the human species, selfishness is extinction. Is this the doom written within our nature?If we believe that humanity may transcend tooth & claw, if we believe divers races & creeds can share this world as peaceably as the orphans share their candlenut tree, if we believe leaders must be just, violence muzzled, power accountable & the riches of the Earth & its Oceans shared equitably, such a world will come to pass. I am not deceived. It is the hardest of worlds to make real. Torturous advances won over generations can be lost by a single stroke of a myopic president's pen or a vainglorious general's sword."

I think about that a lot these days.
 
When I was in high school back in the late 60's I had a poster on my bedroom wall.

It was a picture of the American flag with two dozen or so small masks completely covering the flag with the caption " I can't see my flag anymore"

I wish I had saved that poster...sigh

Everything old is new again
 
Was in Miami for the holidays, largely disconnected from social media and boards (my only break from social media abstinence was to send donbosco a one word message on Sunday morning). So I wasn't around when things went down. I have conflicting thoughts, some of which I will try to articulate.

-When Trump was re-elected (much to my dismay), the only silver lining I saw was when he appointed Rubio as Secretary of State. Not because Lil Marco is some paragon of statesmanship, but I figured that he would be hawkish with on Venezuela, Cuba and Nicaragua. I would give up a pinky toe for Ortega to get taken out of power. In the ultimate ends justify the means, I made a deal with the devil if that were to happen, so I know exactly how Venezuelans were feeling on Sunday.

-I am ecstatic that Maduro got taken out. I have Venezuelan friends scattered across many places (including a fairly large community here in CR) and they were ecstatic and hopeful. I had reached the conclusion that Maduro the only way Maduro would leave power was either through a coup or military intervention. It was clear that the ballot box was not going to be the agent of change. Thus, I totally support his extraction.

-I am more than a little concerned about Venezuela going forward, particularly with Trump's comments on Sunday. Run Venezuela? How the heck is that going to work? As I understand it, there are five factions within the Vzla power structure; they will now be competing to survive. Padrino and Cabello can be very dangerous. Don't think we will get to a Lybia scenario, but things could be chaotic. There are some deeper obstacles to reconstruction; after 25 years of Chavez/Maduro, there is a large swath of the population that expects handouts from the government. Many sectors of their economy has been carved out; it will require significant resources (financial and human) to jumpstart those parts of the economy. This will be messy and tedious...I have little faith that the US will see things through (as Trump has said, his interest is oil).

-It was a daring raid; I didn't think Trump would go for it. I wonder if this emboldens him in the future. Venezuela had spent $6B on anti-aircraft measures...sounds like someone made out like a bandit. Personally, I never thought much of Venezuela's armed forces. They're designed to repress the local population. Totally overmatched.

-IMHO, Marco Rubio has played the long game. I think he'd give his left nut to topple the Cuban government. Think this is why he swallowed his pride, kissed up to Trump and took the SecState job. He has navigated the Trump inner circle, building his case on why taking out Maduro was the right move. Taking out Venezuela puts a huge amount of pressure on Cuba (will Mexico supply them with oil?). He has a couple of years to squeeze the Cubans.

-If I were Taiwan, I'd be very nervous. The clear message is that in their sphere of influence China can do what they want.

-As a citizen of a small country...this is a scary place. Might makes right. Bullyball on the global stage.
 
CRHeel94 said:
Was in Miami for the holidays, largely disconnected from social media and boards (my only break from social media abstinence was to send donbosco a one word message on Sunday morning). So I wasn't around when things went down. I have conflicting thoughts, some of which I will try to articulate.

-When Trump was re-elected (much to my dismay), the only silver lining I saw was when he appointed Rubio as Secretary of State. Not because Lil Marco is some paragon of statesmanship, but I figured that he would be hawkish with on Venezuela, Cuba and Nicaragua. I would give up a pinky toe for Ortega to get taken out of power. In the ultimate ends justify the means, I made a deal with the devil if that were to happen, so I know exactly how Venezuelans were feeling on Sunday.

-I am ecstatic that Maduro got taken out. I have Venezuelan friends scattered across many places (including a fairly large community here in CR) and they were ecstatic and hopeful. I had reached the conclusion that Maduro the only way Maduro would leave power was either through a coup or military intervention. It was clear that the ballot box was not going to be the agent of change. Thus, I totally support his extraction.

-I am more than a little concerned about Venezuela going forward, particularly with Trump's comments on Sunday. Run Venezuela? How the heck is that going to work? As I understand it, there are five factions within the Vzla power structure; they will now be competing to survive. Padrino and Cabello can be very dangerous. Don't think we will get to a Lybia scenario, but things could be chaotic. There are some deeper obstacles to reconstruction; after 25 years of Chavez/Maduro, there is a large swath of the population that expects handouts from the government. Many sectors of their economy has been carved out; it will require significant resources (financial and human) to jumpstart those parts of the economy. This will be messy and tedious...I have little faith that the US will see things through (as Trump has said, his interest is oil).

-It was a daring raid; I didn't think Trump would go for it. I wonder if this emboldens him in the future. Venezuela had spent $6B on anti-aircraft measures...sounds like someone made out like a bandit. Personally, I never thought much of Venezuela's armed forces. They're designed to repress the local population. Totally overmatched.

-IMHO, Marco Rubio has played the long game. I think he'd give his left nut to topple the Cuban government. Think this is why he swallowed his pride, kissed up to Trump and took the SecState job. He has navigated the Trump inner circle, building his case on why taking out Maduro was the right move. Taking out Venezuela puts a huge amount of pressure on Cuba (will Mexico supply them with oil?). He has a couple of years to squeeze the Cubans.

-If I were Taiwan, I'd be very nervous. The clear message is that in their sphere of influence China can do what they want.

-As a citizen of a small country...this is a scary place. Might makes right. Bullyball on the global stage.
Click to expand...
You are clearly much more informed on all of this than I am, and make some really thoughtful points here. Thanks for taking the time to write this.
 
sringwal said:
You are clearly much more informed on all of this than I am, and make some really thoughtful points here. Thanks for taking the time to write this.
Click to expand...
yeah. good points made that generally all come back around to what everyone who isn't a maga shill has been saying:

maduro sucks but this was absolutely not a good or remotely legal way to remove him from power and our actions here will likely have some very negative long term ramifications that far outweigh the short and medium term benefits of this move.
 
CRHeel94 said:
Was in Miami for the holidays, largely disconnected from social media and boards (my only break from social media abstinence was to send donbosco a one word message on Sunday morning). So I wasn't around when things went down. I have conflicting thoughts, some of which I will try to articulate.

-When Trump was re-elected (much to my dismay), the only silver lining I saw was when he appointed Rubio as Secretary of State. Not because Lil Marco is some paragon of statesmanship, but I figured that he would be hawkish with on Venezuela, Cuba and Nicaragua. I would give up a pinky toe for Ortega to get taken out of power. In the ultimate ends justify the means, I made a deal with the devil if that were to happen, so I know exactly how Venezuelans were feeling on Sunday.

-I am ecstatic that Maduro got taken out. I have Venezuelan friends scattered across many places (including a fairly large community here in CR) and they were ecstatic and hopeful. I had reached the conclusion that Maduro the only way Maduro would leave power was either through a coup or military intervention. It was clear that the ballot box was not going to be the agent of change. Thus, I totally support his extraction.

-I am more than a little concerned about Venezuela going forward, particularly with Trump's comments on Sunday. Run Venezuela? How the heck is that going to work? As I understand it, there are five factions within the Vzla power structure; they will now be competing to survive. Padrino and Cabello can be very dangerous. Don't think we will get to a Lybia scenario, but things could be chaotic. There are some deeper obstacles to reconstruction; after 25 years of Chavez/Maduro, there is a large swath of the population that expects handouts from the government. Many sectors of their economy has been carved out; it will require significant resources (financial and human) to jumpstart those parts of the economy. This will be messy and tedious...I have little faith that the US will see things through (as Trump has said, his interest is oil).

-It was a daring raid; I didn't think Trump would go for it. I wonder if this emboldens him in the future. Venezuela had spent $6B on anti-aircraft measures...sounds like someone made out like a bandit. Personally, I never thought much of Venezuela's armed forces. They're designed to repress the local population. Totally overmatched.

-IMHO, Marco Rubio has played the long game. I think he'd give his left nut to topple the Cuban government. Think this is why he swallowed his pride, kissed up to Trump and took the SecState job. He has navigated the Trump inner circle, building his case on why taking out Maduro was the right move. Taking out Venezuela puts a huge amount of pressure on Cuba (will Mexico supply them with oil?). He has a couple of years to squeeze the Cubans.

-If I were Taiwan, I'd be very nervous. The clear message is that in their sphere of influence China can do what they want.

-As a citizen of a small country...this is a scary place. Might makes right. Bullyball on the global stage.
Click to expand...
Thats a really great post. Two follow questions.

1. The six different factions, are they regional or political or cultural or what? In Libya it was tribes and they basically broke up the country based on where their geographic power base was. Is that the case in Venezuela?

2. What are the handouts and could Venezuela realistically afford them if the oil got up to a higher level of production and the elites didn't keep all the money?
 
4thgenheel said:
yeah. good points made that generally all come back around to what everyone who isn't a maga shill has been saying:

maduro sucks but this was absolutely not a good or remotely legal way to remove him from power and our actions here will likely have some very negative long term ramifications that far outweigh the short and medium term benefits of this move.
Click to expand...
True, but I'd also argue that CRHeel's post is probably the clearest, and most succinct, analysis of what motivates Marco Rubio that I have read.
 
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