US strikes Venezuela / Captures Maduro

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MSNOW reporting that Energy Secretary said the US will be in charge of Venezuela's oil industry indefinitely.

it appears the tanker is empty
look at me threat GIF
 
There was corruption before sanctions (and way before any regime-change thoughts).

I think graft in Latin America is an offshoot of the "vivazo" mindset...rules don't apply to me.
 
Was in Miami for the holidays, largely disconnected from social media and boards (my only break from social media abstinence was to send donbosco a one word message on Sunday morning). So I wasn't around when things went down. I have conflicting thoughts, some of which I will try to articulate.

-When Trump was re-elected (much to my dismay), the only silver lining I saw was when he appointed Rubio as Secretary of State. Not because Lil Marco is some paragon of statesmanship, but I figured that he would be hawkish with on Venezuela, Cuba and Nicaragua. I would give up a pinky toe for Ortega to get taken out of power. In the ultimate ends justify the means, I made a deal with the devil if that were to happen, so I know exactly how Venezuelans were feeling on Sunday.

-I am ecstatic that Maduro got taken out. I have Venezuelan friends scattered across many places (including a fairly large community here in CR) and they were ecstatic and hopeful. I had reached the conclusion that Maduro the only way Maduro would leave power was either through a coup or military intervention. It was clear that the ballot box was not going to be the agent of change. Thus, I totally support his extraction.

-I am more than a little concerned about Venezuela going forward, particularly with Trump's comments on Sunday. Run Venezuela? How the heck is that going to work? As I understand it, there are five factions within the Vzla power structure; they will now be competing to survive. Padrino and Cabello can be very dangerous. Don't think we will get to a Lybia scenario, but things could be chaotic. There are some deeper obstacles to reconstruction; after 25 years of Chavez/Maduro, there is a large swath of the population that expects handouts from the government. Many sectors of their economy has been carved out; it will require significant resources (financial and human) to jumpstart those parts of the economy. This will be messy and tedious...I have little faith that the US will see things through (as Trump has said, his interest is oil).

-It was a daring raid; I didn't think Trump would go for it. I wonder if this emboldens him in the future. Venezuela had spent $6B on anti-aircraft measures...sounds like someone made out like a bandit. Personally, I never thought much of Venezuela's armed forces. They're designed to repress the local population. Totally overmatched.

-IMHO, Marco Rubio has played the long game. I think he'd give his left nut to topple the Cuban government. Think this is why he swallowed his pride, kissed up to Trump and took the SecState job. He has navigated the Trump inner circle, building his case on why taking out Maduro was the right move. Taking out Venezuela puts a huge amount of pressure on Cuba (will Mexico supply them with oil?). He has a couple of years to squeeze the Cubans.

-If I were Taiwan, I'd be very nervous. The clear message is that in their sphere of influence China can do what they want.

-As a citizen of a small country...this is a scary place. Might makes right. Bullyball on the global stage.
As usual CR brings a thoughtful and experienced perspective. My Venezuelan friends ( basically an extended family in Chapel Hill ) are being very quiet on social media (I don't live there nor physically 'see' them very often anymore). That's interesting but I don't know what it means. They despised Chaves/Maduro. Another, an NYU professor, sees corruption on the part of the trump regime behind this move. None of these folks are working class Venezuelans, and I have not visited that country, so I can't say about the reactions or thoughts on the "Streets of Caracas." I'd imagine though that almost everyone is relieved to see Maduro gone. I also suspect that given the standard Latin American's knowledge of history, which tends to be at least as good but often quite superior to a U.S. Citizen's, and of the actions taken by the United States in the region, that there is a good deal of trepidation setting in as they watch, essentially helplessly, trump, hegseth, and miller decide the fate of their country and essentially describe a protectorate at best, a colony at worst.

I agree that Rubio has historically had a pretty myopic view toward the region that placed Cuba in the center of the target. I also agree that he has basically sold his soul (how much he had to begin with is debatable) to that end. Liberator of Cuba is a title that he'd dearly love to wear no doubt. Viceroy of the Caribe? I suspect that his thoughts are trending that way of late. But then, as J.D. Vance's fortunes sink as his true buffoonish nature is consistently on display, I'll be surprised if Marquito doesn't turn his gaze toward the throne instead of simply commanding a region.

No army can stand up to the technology of the United States so across the region everyone is now aware that they are living in the bully's territory. Regional elites will make deals, some will even rush to do so, with trump. It is their historical nature and a legacy which they live within. Trump is a crime boss trying to be a Caudillo, another historical figure with which most Latin Americans are familiar. But he's not their Caudillo so Miller et. al. would be smart to find their "men on the make" in the countries they plan on pillaging and turning into protectorates. They will likely come running TO trump. Rubio likely already knows quite a few of them. Argentina, El Salvador, Peru, and Honduras are already in the fold and awaiting orders.

The degree to which these elite and their trumpista partners can seem legitimate and pacify the populace will tell the tale of the ideal to "re-hemisphere." Guerrilla movements and resistance has not been much of a thing of late in the region. I have my doubts whether they can return in any recognizable form. That doesn't mean they cannot take new shapes.
 
There was corruption before sanctions (and way before any regime-change thoughts).

I think graft in Latin America is an offshoot of the "vivazo" mindset...rules don't apply to me.
Corruption existing before sanctions doesn’t answer the core question. The issue is the scale, entrenchment, and why it consolidated under siege.

Once you start to explain corruption as cultural rather than institutional, you stop analyzing political economy and start pathologizing entire societies. That also conveniently erases the role of sanctions, capital flight, and external pressure. Somehow, this logic only ever gets applied to countries on the receiving end of U.S. power.
 
There was corruption before sanctions (and way before any regime-change thoughts).

I think graft in Latin America is an offshoot of the "vivazo" mindset...rules don't apply to me.

I think it goes waaaaay back to "Obedezco pero no complo" and the salutary neglect of the Habsburgs. Add in the encomienda system which created huge plots of land owned by the very few and on which peones (essentially share-croppers with even less rights than in the American South) worked. (Those encomiendas were mostly transformed into haciendas at the end of the colonial period and first decades after independence) This meant horrid wealth distribution from the get-go in most countries (I'd argue that this situation was less prevalent in a few places -- Costa Rica for example). Monocrop agriculture for export exacerbated that situation all the into modern times.

Once I was in Ciudad del Este, Paraguay where the Rio Paraná runs as the divide between that country and Foz do Iguacu, Brasil. The bridge there is called the "Friendship Bridge." The taxation situation at that time was essentially that electronics and houseware were cheaper in Brasil by an appreciable amount so people would literally carry boxes of goods across the bridge and sell them in Paraguay. Of course the guards on the Paraguayan side of the bridge were supposed to stop that from happening. But they were not. Somewhere somebody was getting paid. Some of the elites in the capital were complaining about the guards not doing their jobs so to show them they started working...and they messed up the local economy terribly because they were halting the smuggling. The representative of the border guards then sent out a statement that they would go back to not doing their jobs for a raise! They got it of course and went back to not stopping the smugglers. Paraguay is an extreme case as smuggling has long been a mainstay of the economy.
 
Once you start to explain corruption as cultural rather than institutional, you stop analyzing political economy and start pathologizing entire societies. That also conveniently erases the role of sanctions, capital flight, and external pressure. Somehow, this logic only ever gets applied to countries on the receiving end of U.S. power.
This is not true. The US does not have a culture of corruption that rivals other places on Earth. The US does have a culture of racial scapegoating; it doesn't pathologize the US to take note of that.

A lot of it -- perhaps the vast majority -- is historical. Communist economies like North Korea or the Soviet Union run on bribes. There are other places where bribes have become routinized, as in donbosco's Paraguay example. When bribes are considered a natural part of life, then it's hard to eliminate them.

For instance, suppose you were born in North Korea. The North Korean economy runs on bribes. So much so that I doubt North Koreans think it's wrong. But in any event, nobody in North Korea today knows how to run a society without bribes, because they have never seen one. Their parents didn't see one. Their grandparents never saw one. There is no lived historical memory at all of a society without endemic corruption. So if we got rid of Kim Jong Un and put in a democracy, what's going to happen? Everyone will be taking bribes.

This is the story of India/Pakistan. Both are democracies; both are tremendously corrupt. It's not because Indian people are corrupt. It's because certain things are just taken for granted. My ex-wife was born in India, and her father at one point had a successful trucking business alongside a job at Firestone or some place like that. Her father is a moral person. He was honest in all his dealings with me, and in his effort to set up a jewelry business in Toronto (which didn't do well, perhaps because he was honest). But in his India business, he took bribes.

And that bribe income created "black money" for him (i.e. investments under the table), which was a problem when moving to the US. The problem wasn't simply that it was under the table. If that was the problem, he could have taken advantage of the many "come clean" programs from the Indian government over the years. The problem was that it was a joint investment business. There were like two dozen people who had invested their bribe money together, and he couldn't just extract his share without exposing the rest, who did not want to be exposed. And the fact that there were two dozen people involved is telling. It was so common.

One reason that corruption is hard to root out is that it's often bidirectional. My ex-FIL would tell me (using coded language to avoid admitting outright what he was doing, but that was a matter of politeness more than anything; he knew I knew what he was talking about) that he would take bribes because he would have to pay them. And the people paying him the bribes are probably taking bribes for the same reason.

So in my view, there absolutely are cultures of more or less corruption. It's not because the people are somehow bad; it's that history pushed the societies into a corruption system and it's very hard to break out of such things. Reining in corruption is a huge collective action problem
 
This is not true. The US does not have a culture of corruption that rivals other places on Earth. The US does have a culture of racial scapegoating; it doesn't pathologize the US to take note of that.

A lot of it -- perhaps the vast majority -- is historical. Communist economies like North Korea or the Soviet Union run on bribes. There are other places where bribes have become routinized, as in donbosco's Paraguay example. When bribes are considered a natural part of life, then it's hard to eliminate them.

For instance, suppose you were born in North Korea. The North Korean economy runs on bribes. So much so that I doubt North Koreans think it's wrong. But in any event, nobody in North Korea today knows how to run a society without bribes, because they have never seen one. Their parents didn't see one. Their grandparents never saw one. There is no lived historical memory at all of a society without endemic corruption. So if we got rid of Kim Jong Un and put in a democracy, what's going to happen? Everyone will be taking bribes.

This is the story of India/Pakistan. Both are democracies; both are tremendously corrupt. It's not because Indian people are corrupt. It's because certain things are just taken for granted. My ex-wife was born in India, and her father at one point had a successful trucking business alongside a job at Firestone or some place like that. Her father is a moral person. He was honest in all his dealings with me, and in his effort to set up a jewelry business in Toronto (which didn't do well, perhaps because he was honest). But in his India business, he took bribes.

And that bribe income created "black money" for him (i.e. investments under the table), which was a problem when moving to the US. The problem wasn't simply that it was under the table. If that was the problem, he could have taken advantage of the many "come clean" programs from the Indian government over the years. The problem was that it was a joint investment business. There were like two dozen people who had invested their bribe money together, and he couldn't just extract his share without exposing the rest, who did not want to be exposed. And the fact that there were two dozen people involved is telling. It was so common.

One reason that corruption is hard to root out is that it's often bidirectional. My ex-FIL would tell me (using coded language to avoid admitting outright what he was doing, but that was a matter of politeness more than anything; he knew I knew what he was talking about) that he would take bribes because he would have to pay them. And the people paying him the bribes are probably taking bribes for the same reason.

So in my view, there absolutely are cultures of more or less corruption. It's not because the people are somehow bad; it's that history pushed the societies into a corruption system and it's very hard to break out of such things. Reining in corruption is a huge collective action problem
Fair points. I agree that corruption can become historically entrenched and self-reinforcing. My concern is where that explanation quietly shifts from institutional history to cultural pathology. Once corruption is treated as something societies “are” rather than something produced by specific political and economic conditions, analysis stops and stereotyping begins.

In Latin America especially, those conditions include centuries of external pressure, extractive colonial economies, Cold War intervention, capital flight, and later sanctions. Corruption existed before siege, but siege radically alters its scale and function by rewarding consolidation and survival over reform.

When similar dynamics appear elsewhere, we correctly explain them structurally. When they appear in countries targeted by U.S. power, they’re too often moralized.
 
There was corruption before sanctions (and way before any regime-change thoughts).

I think graft in Latin America is an offshoot of the "vivazo" mindset...rules don't apply to me.
Here's a map from transparency international, a German NGO, on the perception of corruption around the world. Dark blue is best, dark red and black are worst. Yellow is in the middle. Any idea what the deal is with Uruguay? Can that be copied?

I'm sorry but at the same time not sorry that we keep asking you any questions about Latin america. You're a great resource. Thank you.

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Fair points. I agree that corruption can become historically entrenched and self-reinforcing. My concern is where that explanation quietly shifts from institutional history to cultural pathology. Once corruption is treated as something societies “are” rather than something produced by specific political and economic conditions, analysis stops and stereotyping begins.

In Latin America especially, those conditions include centuries of external pressure, extractive colonial economies, Cold War intervention, capital flight, and later sanctions. Corruption existed before siege, but siege radically alters its scale and function by rewarding consolidation and survival over reform.

When similar dynamics appear elsewhere, we correctly explain them structurally. When they appear in countries targeted by U.S. power, they’re too often moralized.
I can't speak to the moralizing. You are more exposed to a broad discourse than I am, I would imagine. Mostly this board is my contact with "Americans" rather than the small self-selecting subset of "super's friends."

I do think societies can get into doom spirals in which democracy becomes more or less impossible. I've not seen any empirical research on this point and this is mostly intuition, but I think it's sound. Democracy requires trust -- i.e. the whole "peaceful transfer of power" idea that has become so sadly familiar. In a democracy, people have to be able to say to others: I will let you have the guns if you promise not to use them against me. But how to do that if your entire life has been a lesson not to trust people outside your clan? Or even within the clan. And it's not just your life -- your parents, your grandparents.

That is why some societies seem destined to be ruled forever by dictators, I think. Burma/Myanmar hasn't had a stable government in how long? A century? I can't imagine how North Koreans can realistically transition out of the hellish state they are in today. The best hope, I think, is expatriation and then repatriation. Get enough Somalis in the US, some of whom will do well for themselves -- maybe at some point they will decide to go back and try to set up a rule of law. They will at least have the experience to be able to say, "no, the world doesn't have to work this way."

It's not because Burmese or North Koreans or Somalis are bad people. Nor is it because their culture is shit all the way through. It can just be really hard to climb out of an attractor basin, which is what corruption is.
 
Here's a map from transparency international, a German NGO, on the perception of corruption around the world. Dark blue is best, dark red and black are worst. Yellow is in the middle. Any idea what the deal is with Uruguay? Can that be copied?
By far, the biggest single cause of corruption is natural resource extraction. Those dark blue spots on the map are generally places where extraction has never been a part of the culture, or at least historically wasn't part of the culture. Norway didn't become an oil producer until the 1970s, well after their political culture had been established.

Notice the position of Botswana -- light yellow. Again, Botswana's fortune was having few mineral riches. It meant that the country's economy revolved around rules and mutual economic dependence, not about which group could own the stuff coming out of the ground.

So no, Uruguay's success cannot be copied in toto. There are certainly ways that societies can become less corrupt, but I'm not sure that dot of blue is going to spread. Yellow would be the realistic goal, I think.

Note: resource extraction is not the only cause of corruption. Legacies from colonialism play a part, as does domination by foreign powers.
 
I can't speak to the moralizing. You are more exposed to a broad discourse than I am, I would imagine. Mostly this board is my contact with "Americans" rather than the small self-selecting subset of "super's friends."

I do think societies can get into doom spirals in which democracy becomes more or less impossible. I've not seen any empirical research on this point and this is mostly intuition, but I think it's sound. Democracy requires trust -- i.e. the whole "peaceful transfer of power" idea that has become so sadly familiar. In a democracy, people have to be able to say to others: I will let you have the guns if you promise not to use them against me. But how to do that if your entire life has been a lesson not to trust people outside your clan? Or even within the clan. And it's not just your life -- your parents, your grandparents.

That is why some societies seem destined to be ruled forever by dictators, I think. Burma/Myanmar hasn't had a stable government in how long? A century? I can't imagine how North Koreans can realistically transition out of the hellish state they are in today. The best hope, I think, is expatriation and then repatriation. Get enough Somalis in the US, some of whom will do well for themselves -- maybe at some point they will decide to go back and try to set up a rule of law. They will at least have the experience to be able to say, "no, the world doesn't have to work this way."

It's not because Burmese or North Koreans or Somalis are bad people. Nor is it because their culture is shit all the way through. It can just be really hard to climb out of an attractor basin, which is what corruption is.
No doubt. I feel the pull of that pessimism all the time about our own country. I can only imagine how people in places like Somalia or Venezuela feel. Pessimism can be clarifying. It can sharpen analysis. But when it’s left unchecked, it stops being diagnostic and turns into determinism.

Once we’re in determinist territory, it becomes very easy to mistake resignation for realism.
 
Once we’re in determinist territory, it becomes very easy to mistake resignation for realism.
Yes. This was my biggest gripe with the policy community, back when I was in law school with intent to go into the policy world.

Obviously the stakes were much lower there, but it was still frustrating how often ideas were swatted away by the phrase "politically unrealistic." Well, if you dismiss every idea at the outset, then of course it's going to be unrealistic. Cynicism is not realism.
 
With the disclaimer that I and everyone else cannot predict the future, I am reasonably confident that this military exercise will have enormous long-term consequences that this administration has not considered or foreseen. We have just shifted the geopolitical landscape in the Western hemisphere. We are now heading down the road of colonialism.
 
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