Walz — Comer Opens Congressional Investigation of Walz trips to China

If it is Walz or Shapiro, I’m hoping for Walz but would understand picking Shapiro as make/break as PA is for Harris.

I just don’t see anything I don’t like with Walz, other than lack of name recognition.
 
RockyMtnHoo said:
If it is Walz or Shapiro, I’m hoping for Walz but would understand picking Shapiro as make/break as PA is for Harris.

I just don’t see anything I don’t like with Walz, other than lack of name recognition.
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And ,La brings the Name recognition
 
RockyMtnHoo said:
If it is Walz or Shapiro, I’m hoping for Walz but would understand picking Shapiro as make/break as PA is for Harris.

I just don’t see anything I don’t like with Walz, other than lack of name recognition.
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Yeah, I think if the rumors are true that Harris is down to Walz and Shapiro, it is a total win – win situation for the campaign. With either of those two guys, the start of the campaign has been about a 100 on a scale of 1 to 10.
 
I see it as choosing between a top 20/5 star who is a little more raw and needs to work on his shot, but has a crazy high ceiling.

Or a top 50/4 star who is a weapon from 3 and does everything well, but has a slightly lower ceiling.

Neither is bad.
 
RockyMtnHoo said:
I see it as choosing between a top 20/5 star who is a little more raw and needs to work on his shot, but has a crazy high ceiling.

Or a top 50/4 star who is a weapon from 3 and does everything well, but has a slightly lower ceiling.

Neither is bad.
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That’s a fantastic analogy. Completely agree. Really can’t go wrong with either one. Fantastic spot to be in if you are on team blue, especially juxtapose to the utter disaster that is the Republican vice presidential candidate!
 
I knew the least about Walz among all the names mentioned as a possible running mate. He’s really impressed me with his casual confidence and balance of being down to earth and likable but also sufficiently sharp in his criticisms. As much as I like Beshear and Cooper I worried about them being too nice.
 
I've seen analyses that PA is the most critical swing state for tipping the election. By a wide margin. Just wonder if the opportunity Shapiro presents for that state is too much to pass up.

Also wonder how well Walz would poll with working-class, non-college whites in the Rust Belt. Kornacki detailed how he won re-election in '22 with a smaller share of these voters than Biden had in 2020. IOW, is what he's perceived to bring to the table electorally actually a real thing?

Anyway, all these guys should be effective surrogates for the ticket, whatever it ends up being.
 
UNCRx85 said:
I've seen analyses that PA is the most critical swing state for tipping the election. By a wide margin. Just wonder if the opportunity Shapiro presents for that state is too much to pass up.

Also wonder how well Walz would poll with working-class, non-college whites in the Rust Belt. Kornacki detailed how he won re-election in '22 with a smaller share of these voters than Biden had in 2020. IOW, is what he's perceived to bring to the table electorally actually a real thing?

Anyway, all these guys should be effective surrogates for the ticket, whatever it ends up being.
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Yeah, that has been my whole reasoning the entire time for why I want Shapiro to be the pic, is because I think he walks up Pennsylvania, and I think if Harris wins Pennsylvania, she wins the election. But the really good thing either way is that even if Shapiro is not on the ticket, given his extraordinarily overwhelming popularity in the Commonwealth, there’s still probably a pretty good probability that he could help deliver Pennsylvania. And same with Tim Walz- even if he is not on the ticket, I think that giving him an elevated role in campaigning for Harris would help deliver the other two blue wall states.
 
RockyMtnHoo said:
I see it as choosing between a top 20/5 star who is a little more raw and needs to work on his shot, but has a crazy high ceiling.

Or a top 50/4 star who is a weapon from 3 and does everything well, but has a slightly lower ceiling.

Neither is bad.
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Trouble is, you need someone to start at small forward this season, and likely be the second or third scorer. The 5-star might end up 1st team all-conference in year two or three, but there's potential he's a net negative in year one.
 
Would be interesting
CFordUNC said:
Yeah, that has been my whole reasoning the entire time for why I want Shapiro to be the pic, is because I think he walks up Pennsylvania, and I think if Harris wins Pennsylvania, she wins the election. But the really good thing either way is that even if Shapiro is not on the ticket, given his extraordinarily overwhelming popularity in the Commonwealth, there’s still probably a pretty good probability that he could help deliver Pennsylvania. And same with Tim Walz- even if he is not on the ticket, I think that giving him an elevated role in campaigning for Harris would help deliver the other two blue wall states.
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I would go with Walz but my calculation is that Harris/Walz is more likely to win Pennsylvania than Harris/Shapiro is to win Wisconsin + michigan.
 
There really isn't much evidence to suggest that a VP candidate can "lock up" his home state. What I've read is that VP choices have, at best, a small effect even in their home states.

www.vox.com

Would picking Josh Shapiro actually help Harris in Pennsylvania?

Kamala Harris is considering naming Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro as her running mate in the 2024 election. But history suggests that picking him might not actually help Democrats win Pennsylvania.
www.vox.com www.vox.com
 
superrific said:
There really isn't much evidence to suggest that a VP candidate can "lock up" his home state. What I've read is that VP choices have, at best, a small effect even in their home states.

www.vox.com

Would picking Josh Shapiro actually help Harris in Pennsylvania?

Kamala Harris is considering naming Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro as her running mate in the 2024 election. But history suggests that picking him might not actually help Democrats win Pennsylvania.
www.vox.com www.vox.com
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True, there isn't much evidence showing that a VP can lock up his home state, but if he/she can add, let's say 1-2% to a closely contested state like Pennsylvania or Michigan, it could be the difference and possibly swing the election.

Let's say she picks Shapiro and he helps her narrowly win Pennsylvania by adding that extra 1-2%. She then also gets Michigan and Wisconsin, but loses Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, and North Carolina. That would allow her to still win the election 270-268 despite not picking up any states from Trump and losing three of her own that were blue in 2020.
 
WaynetheDrain said:
True, there isn't much evidence showing that a VP can lock up his home state, but if he/she can add, let's say 1-2% to a closely contested state like Pennsylvania or Michigan, it could be the difference and possibly swing the election.

Let's say she picks Shapiro and he helps her narrowly win Pennsylvania by adding that extra 1-2%. She then also gets Michigan and Wisconsin, but loses Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, and North Carolina. That would allow her to still win the election 270-268 despite not picking up any states from Trump and losing three of her own that were blue in 2020.
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Yep. According to 538, over the last five 8 presidential elections, the VP pick has added on average 1.7% to the ticket in their home state.
 
270-268 would be a nightmare scenario. Jan 6 happened with a relatively easy EC victory…can you imagine if it actually is that close, where one state (or even a split EC like they do in Maine & Nebraska) could swing it the other way.
 
Shapiro will not hurt in PA. If Harris cant win PA with him then the election is probably over.All for Shapiro
 
RockyMtnHoo said:
270-268 would be a nightmare scenario. Jan 6 happened with a relatively easy EC victory…can you imagine if it actually is that close, where one state (or even a split EC like they do in Maine & Nebraska) could swing it the other way.
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Oh, there's even worse scenarios than that.

I wake up in cold sweats every night after having nightmares about a 269-269 deadlock that gets decided in the House.
 
WaynetheDrain said:
Oh, there's even worse scenarios than that.

I wake up in cold sweats every night after having nightmares about a 269-269 deadlock that gets decided in the House.
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Oh Yea Harris gets 7 million more votes and we end up with an orangeturd
 
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