Walz — Comer Opens Congressional Investigation of Walz trips to China
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That’s a fantastic analogy. Completely agree. Really can’t go wrong with either one. Fantastic spot to be in if you are on team blue, especially juxtapose to the utter disaster that is the Republican vice presidential candidate!
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I knew the least about Walz among all the names mentioned as a possible running mate. He’s really impressed me with his casual confidence and balance of being down to earth and likable but also sufficiently sharp in his criticisms. As much as I like Beshear and Cooper I worried about them being too nice.
UNCRx85
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I've seen analyses that PA is the most critical swing state for tipping the election. By a wide margin. Just wonder if the opportunity Shapiro presents for that state is too much to pass up.
Also wonder how well Walz would poll with working-class, non-college whites in the Rust Belt. Kornacki detailed how he won re-election in '22 with a smaller share of these voters than Biden had in 2020. IOW, is what he's perceived to bring to the table electorally actually a real thing?
Anyway, all these guys should be effective surrogates for the ticket, whatever it ends up being.
Also wonder how well Walz would poll with working-class, non-college whites in the Rust Belt. Kornacki detailed how he won re-election in '22 with a smaller share of these voters than Biden had in 2020. IOW, is what he's perceived to bring to the table electorally actually a real thing?
Anyway, all these guys should be effective surrogates for the ticket, whatever it ends up being.
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Yeah, that has been my whole reasoning the entire time for why I want Shapiro to be the pic, is because I think he walks up Pennsylvania, and I think if Harris wins Pennsylvania, she wins the election. But the really good thing either way is that even if Shapiro is not on the ticket, given his extraordinarily overwhelming popularity in the Commonwealth, there’s still probably a pretty good probability that he could help deliver Pennsylvania. And same with Tim Walz- even if he is not on the ticket, I think that giving him an elevated role in campaigning for Harris would help deliver the other two blue wall states.
uncjhodges
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Would be interesting
I would go with Walz but my calculation is that Harris/Walz is more likely to win Pennsylvania than Harris/Shapiro is to win Wisconsin + michigan.
theel4life
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Shapiro is amazing.
superrific
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There really isn't much evidence to suggest that a VP candidate can "lock up" his home state. What I've read is that VP choices have, at best, a small effect even in their home states.
www.vox.com
Would picking Josh Shapiro actually help Harris in Pennsylvania?
Vice presidential candidates don’t necessarily enjoy a home-state advantage.
www.vox.com
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True, there isn't much evidence showing that a VP can lock up his home state, but if he/she can add, let's say 1-2% to a closely contested state like Pennsylvania or Michigan, it could be the difference and possibly swing the election.There really isn't much evidence to suggest that a VP candidate can "lock up" his home state. What I've read is that VP choices have, at best, a small effect even in their home states.
Would picking Josh Shapiro actually help Harris in Pennsylvania?
Vice presidential candidates don’t necessarily enjoy a home-state advantage.
Let's say she picks Shapiro and he helps her narrowly win Pennsylvania by adding that extra 1-2%. She then also gets Michigan and Wisconsin, but loses Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, and North Carolina. That would allow her to still win the election 270-268 despite not picking up any states from Trump and losing three of her own that were blue in 2020.
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Yep. According to 538, over the last five 8 presidential elections, the VP pick has added on average 1.7% to the ticket in their home state.
RockyMtnHoo
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270-268 would be a nightmare scenario. Jan 6 happened with a relatively easy EC victory…can you imagine if it actually is that close, where one state (or even a split EC like they do in Maine & Nebraska) could swing it the other way.
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Oh, there's even worse scenarios than that.
I wake up in cold sweats every night after having nightmares about a 269-269 deadlock that gets decided in the House.
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Oh Yea Harris gets 7 million more votes and we end up with an orangeturd
Carolina Fever
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Should go to the popular vote if it is tied. It is sad if Trump wins again and doesn't win the popular vote. But it shouldn't even be that close. The racists, bigots and idiots in the south and rural areas of the other states just want to go back to the 1950s and there are still way too many of them.
RockyMtnHoo
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Yes, that would definitely suck, but with our crappy system that would technically be a fair Trump win.
My nightmare scenario would be Harris actually winning by a razor-thin EC margin, states that Harris won get contested and it somehow ends up in front of the Trump SCOTUS.
uncjhodges
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Does shapiro help in PA enough (internal poll already had harris up 4) to offset any bad in Michigan and any good Walz would do in Wisconsin.
We have to win all 3 plus something else (nebraska district, nevada, GA, AZ, or Nc- in my order of likelihood)
Walz seems like the prudent move
We have to win all 3 plus something else (nebraska district, nevada, GA, AZ, or Nc- in my order of likelihood)
Walz seems like the prudent move
lawtig02
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Tim is incredible. Minnesota has been through some tough times, but it may be my favorite state in the country, largely because the people there are just so real and relatable. I’ll be very excited with either VP finalist, but Tim will blow people’s doors off if it’s him.
It should be Shapiro. Every battleground state vote matters, and Shapiro pretty clearly does more for that calculus than Walz, IMO.
I have reservations about Shapiro hemorrhaging some votes (especially in MI) around his staunch pro-Israel/anti-protestor stance, but I'm convinced the benefits would outweigh the drawbacks. Any boost in PA would make a difference, and he's likely to deliver at least some boost. Plus, his stance is not as troubling as I'd first thought -- he supports a two-state solution and recognizes that Netanyahu needs to go. That will come to light and mitigate that sentiment.
Beyond that, he's younger and more vibrant, and a better speaker than Walz. The younger voters are so invigorated right now, and they are THE key demographic in this election, and the most persuadable. Relatively speaking, Shapiro keeps that ball rolling. Walz looks like just another white-haired white guy to them, and we all know that these kinds of optics matter way more than we'd prefer. That would slow or neutralize at least some of the current momentum among those voters.
I have reservations about Shapiro hemorrhaging some votes (especially in MI) around his staunch pro-Israel/anti-protestor stance, but I'm convinced the benefits would outweigh the drawbacks. Any boost in PA would make a difference, and he's likely to deliver at least some boost. Plus, his stance is not as troubling as I'd first thought -- he supports a two-state solution and recognizes that Netanyahu needs to go. That will come to light and mitigate that sentiment.
Beyond that, he's younger and more vibrant, and a better speaker than Walz. The younger voters are so invigorated right now, and they are THE key demographic in this election, and the most persuadable. Relatively speaking, Shapiro keeps that ball rolling. Walz looks like just another white-haired white guy to them, and we all know that these kinds of optics matter way more than we'd prefer. That would slow or neutralize at least some of the current momentum among those voters.