'We are screwed': Virologists warn about disease they say could become the next pandemic

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Callatoroy said:
  • Dr. Fauci showed no remorse for the millions of lives affected by his divisive rhetoric and his unscientific policies. He did not apologize to the thousands of Americans who lost their jobs because they refused the novel vaccine, nor did he apologize to children experiencing severe leaning loss as a result of actions he promoted.
  • Dr. Fauci confirmed that his Senior Advisor — Dr. David Morens — violated official NIH policies and potentially broke federal law. Evidence obtained by the Select Subcommittee suggests that Dr. Morens deliberately obstructed the Select Subcommittee’s investigation into the origins of COVID-19, unlawfully deleted federal COVID-19 records, and shared nonpublic information about National Institutes of Health (NIH) grant processes with his “best-friend” EcoHealth Alliance, Inc. (EcoHealth) President Dr. Peter Daszak.
  • Dr. Fauci maintained his misleading claim that the NIH never funded gain-of-function research in Wuhan, China. In 2021, he told Sen. Rand Paul that “the NIH has not ever and does not now fund gain-of-function research in the Wuhan Institute of Virology.” During yesterday’s hearing, Dr. Fauci doubled down on his previous claim by stating “the NIH did not fund gain-of-function research at the Wuhan Institute of Virology.” Notably, former Acting NIH Director Dr. Lawrence Tabak told the Select Subcommittee recently that the NIH did, in fact, fund gain-of-function research in Wuhan.
  • Dr. Fauci agreed with the Select Subcommittee that EcoHealth and its president, Dr. Peter Daszak, should never again receive a single cent from the U.S. taxpayer. Two weeks after the Select Subcommittee released evidence of EcoHealth’s contempt for the American people, its flagrant disregard for the risks associated with gain-of-function research, and its willful violation of the terms of its NIH grant, the Department of Health and Human Services commenced formal debarment proceedings against the organization and its president.
  • Dr. Fauci corrected his previous testimony that his staff did not possess conflicts of interest. During his transcribed interview he claimed, “the only people that I am involved with is my own staff, who we’ve mentioned many times in this discussion, who don’t have a conflict of interest.” During yesterday’s hearing, he changed his tune testifying that Dr. Morens “definitely had a conflict of interest.”
  • Dr. Fauci publicly acknowledged that the lab leak hypothesis was possible and not a conspiracy theory. Yesterday, he told Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) that he falsely claimed that he has kept an “open mind” about the origins of the pandemic. This comes nearly four years after prompting the publication of the now infamous “Proximal Origin” paper that attempted to vilify and disprove the lab leak hypothesis.

www.usatoday.com

COVID guidelines caused millions to suffer. Now Fauci admits 'there was no science behind it.'

Many of us could have told Dr. Anthony Fauci his COVID-19 guidelines were doing harm.
www.usatoday.com www.usatoday.com
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The COVID guidelines were set by the CDC, not Fauci. Fauci was an NIH administrator but was often more correct than the CDC. The mRNA and protein vaccines saved 14.4 M lives worldwide, about 4M in the US.

Our capacity for producing vaccines is now much higher.

Lives saved by COVID‐19 vaccines - PMC

pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
 
I'm not all that concerned. If a bird flu pandemic happened under the second Trump admin, we would just need Rudy Gobert to test positive early on so that the NBA takes the initiative to cancel its season, signaling to other organizations and the general public that hey maybe this thing is kinda serious. Then, as a nation, we collectively twiddle our thumbs for a couple weeks and poof it's gone by Easter. That's exactly how any credible public health expert would draw it up.
 
UNCatTech said:
I recently read an article about this. I was floored at the 50% number.
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Depending on the magazine, I wouldn't put too much faith in it. Not only does that mutation have to happen ,it has to happen in a time and place that it can perpetuate. It can't be too deadly or it will kill its victims before they can spread the disease. It can't happen in a too isolated situation for the same reason. When and if it happens ,later outbreaks tend to increase in infection rates until some herd immunity builds and decrease in deadliness.

Otoh, even if not this or not now, it will happen with something. Laurie Garrett's The Coming Plague, written about 30 years ago, is a good look at this.
 
Callatoroy said:
Operation Warp Speed II. Of course you guys will never give trump credit for expediting the covid vaccine.
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It would have been nice if he had promoted the vaccine and had implemented a vaccine plan like Biden did.

Moreover, it would have been nice if he had refrained from assuring Americans the pandemic would be gone by Easter and later speculated that injecting bleach might be an effective treatment for Covid.
 
Always thought ironic that Trump disowned one of his better achievements. I give him credit for cutting plenty of red tape to get the vaccines done in record time. But to watch him fumble with the messaging because his base was doubtful about vaccines and he wanted to pretend things weren't as bad.
 
CRHeel94 said:
Have never understood the demonizing of Fauci. Fighting a pandemic is an inexact science.
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I suspect Fauci, for Trumpers, quickly became a symbol of everything they hated about covid - the masking requirements, closing of schools and businesses, vaccine requirements,etc. The fact that he wasn't really in charge of the shutdowns doesn't matter, for Trumpers he became the symbol of it all. And Fauci, like the UnitedHealthcare CEO who was recently murdered, is a symbol of everything Trumpers in particular hate about our healthcare establishment. The fact that Fauci was a medical expert who just wanted to save lives using the best available evidence and techniques, while Trump was (and is) a dumbass who demonized Fauci while his own bungling covid response likely led to unnecessary deaths was, as usual, just ignored by these same people. Basically, what they really want Fauci punished for is for having the nerve to ask the government to require them to wear masks and shutting down restaurants and businesses and vaccine requirements and so on. They don't have any list of real crimes that he's committed, but thanks to Trump's demonization of the guy and their own resentments and grievances they just want him punished for the pandemic. He's their scapegoat.
 
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heelinhell said:
It would have been nice if he had promoted the vaccine and had implemented a vaccine plan like Biden did.

Moreover, it would have been nice if he had refrained from assuring Americans the pandemic would be gone by Easter and later speculated that injecting bleach might be an effective treatment for Covid.
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And maybe wearing a mask himself might have convinced more of his followers to do so. But he rarely was shown in public with a mask, especially as the pandemic progressed.
 
finesse said:
Otoh, even if not this or not now, it will happen with something. Laurie Garrett's The Coming Plague, written about 30 years ago, is a good look at this.
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It is my understanding that this flu is now being passed between cattle, between wild cats, and some other non-avian species.

If it has made the leap to spread between multiple species, common sense would say that it isn't unlikely for it to do so among humans.

These strains that are being spread from farm animals to humans don't seem to be as deadly, but I don't think you understand what is as stake here. The case fatality rate of the Spanish flu was by many estimations 2-3%. The bird flu has traditionally had a case fatality rate of 50% - and that is with modern medicine and few human cases so the health system was not overwhelmed.

Even if that goes down from 50% to 5%, that's a pandemic like none we have seen in hundreds of years.

Several other points. 1) Not sure what you mean about "the magazine." That 50% case fatality rate has been reported by almost all sources. I don't think there is a question of the veracity of that number. 2) Herd immunity has no relation to case fatality. Herd immunity means that enough people have immunity so that spread can not be sustained. 3) Influenza isn't traditionally a disease that kills so quickly to prevent spread. This isn't ebola.

Also while viruses do tend to become less virulent over time, that is not a linear trend in that direction. COVID proved that with the emergence of more contagious and deadly strains after the initial outbreak.

The good news is that we do have a vaccine for bird flu (though the question is how effective it will be against whatever strain begins to spread among humans) and mRNA technology has proven itself and mRNA vaccines can be created quickly.
 
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ChapelHillSooner said:
It is my understanding that this flu is now being passed between cattle, between wild cats, and some other non-avian species.

If it has made the leap to spread between multiple species, common sense would say that it isn't unlikely for it to do so among humans.

These strains that are being spread from farm animals to humans don't seem to be as deadly, but I don't think you understand what is as stake here. The case fatality rate of the Spanish flu was by many estimations 2-3%. The bird flu has traditionally had a case fatality rate of 50% - and that is with modern medicine and few human cases so the health system was not overwhelmed.

Even if that goes down from 50% to 5%, that's a pandemic like none we have seen in hundreds of years.

Several other points. 1) Not sure what you mean about "the magazine." That 50% case fatality rate has been reported by almost all sources. I don't think there is a question of the veracity of that number. 2) Herd immunity has no relation to case fatality. Herd immunity means that enough people have immunity so that spread can not be sustained. 3) Influenza isn't traditionally a disease that kills so quickly to prevent spread. This isn't ebola.

Also while viruses do tend to become less virulent over time, that is not a linear trend in that direction. COVID proved that with the emergence of more contagious and deadly strains after the initial outbreak.

The good news is that we do have a vaccine for bird flu (though the question is how effective it will be against whatever strain begins to spread among humans) and mRNA technology has proven itself and mRNA vaccines can be created quickly.
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You're making about as many assumptions as I am. The mutation hasn't happened. When it does, we have no idea other than crossing the species barrier what effects that will have on the virus concerning either how contagious or virulent it will be. Since we do have antivirals that mitigate the disease now, how much affect would early diagnosis have on that fatality rate? As you say, it's a rare disease so it's going to be a bit down the list as a diagnosis, barring a bit of inspiration. Seems like vaccines and early testing is the way to go.
 
finesse said:
Depending on the magazine, I wouldn't put too much faith in it. Not only does that mutation have to happen ,it has to happen in a time and place that it can perpetuate. It can't be too deadly or it will kill its victims before they can spread the disease. It can't happen in a too isolated situation for the same reason. When and if it happens ,later outbreaks tend to increase in infection rates until some herd immunity builds and decrease in deadliness.

Otoh, even if not this or not now, it will happen with something. Laurie Garrett's The Coming Plague, written about 30 years ago, is a good look at this.
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I don't think naturally occurring viruses should be our primary concern. Nature doesn't always do a good job of creating highly contagious viruses that are also extremely deadly. Usually it's one or the other, and COVID would be included in that. It was extremely contagious, but not very deadly.

Our real concern should be with the rapidly developing synthetic biology industry and gain of function research that's happening at various labs around the world. We are creating, for really no good reason that I see, extremely contagious and extremely deadly viruses in labs. It only takes one mistake to put civilization at risk.
 
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ZenMode said:
I don't think naturally occurring viruses should be our primary concern. Nature doesn't always do a good job of creating highly contagious viruses that are also extremely deadly. Usually it's one or the other, and COVID would be included in that. It was extremely contagious, but not very deadly.

Our real concern should be with the rapidly developing synthetic biology industry and gain of function science that's happening at various labs around the world. We are creating, for really no good reason that I see, extremely contagious and extremely deadly viruses in labs. It only takes one mistake to put civilization at risk.
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I question your expertise.
 
To put it bluntly, people have been concerned about the bird flu for 20 years. The recent trend of having far more cases and the recent trend of it spreading among non-avian species should concern everyone. This is what public health experts have spent the last 20 year worrying about.
finesse said:
You're making about as many assumptions as I am. The mutation hasn't happened. When it does, we have no idea other than crossing the species barrier what effects that will have on the virus concerning either how contagious or virulent it will be. Since we do have antivirals that mitigate the disease now, how much affect would early diagnosis have on that fatality rate? As you say, it's a rare disease so it's going to be a bit down the list as a diagnosis, barring a bit of inspiration. Seems like vaccines and early testing is the way to go.
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I am not making any assumptions. Please show where I have stated X or Y will happen.

I have talked about potential outcomes and argued why it is reasonable to be concerned about them. That isn’t making an assumption.

And you may be right. The virus may not ever spread efficiently from human to human or the strain that does so might be less virulent. I have actually stated the second part in previous posts.

And on a completely unrelated topic, what the hell is up with that foul pole being a major obstruction in the UNC game? If you (Fenway/Boston) can’t remove a foul pole which causes such a horrible TV viewing experience, maybe you don’t deserve to host a bowl game.
 
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