'We are screwed': Virologists warn about disease they say could become the next pandemic

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To put it bluntly, people have been concerned about the bird flu for 20 years. The recent trend of having far more cases and the recent trend of it spreading among non-avian species should concern everyone. This is what public health experts have spent the last 20 year worrying about.
finesse said:
You're making about as many assumptions as I am. The mutation hasn't happened. When it does, we have no idea other than crossing the species barrier what effects that will have on the virus concerning either how contagious or virulent it will be. Since we do have antivirals that mitigate the disease now, how much affect would early diagnosis have on that fatality rate? As you say, it's a rare disease so it's going to be a bit down the list as a diagnosis, barring a bit of inspiration. Seems like vaccines and early testing is the way to go.
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I am not making any assumptions. Please show where I have stated X or Y will happen.

I have talked about potential outcomes and argued why it is reasonable to be concerned about them. That isn’t making an assumption.

And you may be right. The virus may not ever spread efficiently from human to human or the strain that does so might be less virulent. I have actually stated the second part in previous posts.

And on a completely unrelated topic, what the hell is up with that foul pole being a major obstruction in the UNC game? If you (Fenway/Boston) can’t remove a foul pole which causes such a horrible TV viewing experience, maybe you don’t deserve to host a bowl game.
 
ChapelHillSooner said:
To put it bluntly, people have been concerned about the bird flu for 20 years. The recent trend of having far more cases and the recent trend of it spreading among non-avian species should concern everyone. This is what public health experts have spent the last 20 year worrying about.

I am not making any assumptions. Please show where I have stated X or Y will happen.

I have talked about potential outcomes and argued why it is reasonable to be concerned about them. That isn’t making an assumption.

And you may be right. The virus may not ever spread efficiently from human to human or the strain that does so might be less virulent. I have actually stated the second part in previous posts.

And on a completely unrelated topic, what the hell is up with that foul pole being a major obstruction in the UNC game? If you (Fenway/Boston) can’t remove a foul pole which causes such a horrible TV viewing experience, maybe you don’t deserve to host a bowl game.
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I don't mean to seem argumentative. I have, at best, an interested layman's knowledge. I had just meant to make the point that the predictability of such mutations and where they will lead is very small.
 
finesse said:
I question your expertise.
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Well, I'm not claiming to be an expert in synthetic biology, genome printing or gain of function research. I do know that gain of function research can make viruses more deadly, more transmissible and transmissible to humans when the otherwise wouldn't be. Probably the most well-known example of dangerous gain of function research is the H5N1 virus. Combine that with the fact that even the most secure labs, BSL4, are imperfect and it's not difficult to see the potential for danger.

Now, combine that with our ability to recreate very deadly viruses that no longer exist and the danger level increases.
 
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StrangePackage said:
If I were a religious man, the correlation of Trump being in power and plagues being unleashed would cause me to raise an eyebrow
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Indeed. I continue to be amused, as I have been since 2016, by the thought that the Religious Right has devotedly championed a virtual Anti-Christ as their hero and savior. The Bible speaks of False Prophets and people who will falsely claim to speak in Christ's name, and Trump is certainly a prime example. I grew up listening to people in church tell us kids to keep an eye out for the rise of Anti-Christ and to make sure we weren't fooled by him. Well, here we are, and most conservative Christians have been suckered and pulled in hook, line, and sinker by a man who is the exact opposite of Christ and his teachings in almost every way imaginable.
 
Mulberry Heel said:
I suspect Fauci, for Trumpers, quickly became a symbol of everything they hated about covid - the masking requirements, closing of schools and businesses, vaccine requirements,etc. The fact that he wasn't really in charge of the shutdowns doesn't matter, for Trumpers he became the symbol of it all. And Fauci, like the UnitedHealthcare CEO who was recently murdered, is a symbol of everything Trumpers in particular hate about our healthcare establishment. The fact that Fauci was a medical expert who just wanted to save lives using the best available evidence and techniques, while Trump was (and is) a dumbass who demonized Fauci while his own bungling covid response likely led to unnecessary deaths was, as usual, just ignored by these same people. Basically, what they really want Fauci punished for is for having the nerve to ask the government to require them to wear masks and shutting down restaurants and businesses and vaccine requirements and so on. They don't have any list of real crimes that he's committed, but thanks to Trump's demonization of the guy and their own resentments and grievances they just want him punished for the pandemic. He's their scapegoat.
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An opportunity to side with daddy Trump against some educated guy is too much to pass up. Feeding your kids some goop from Tractor Supply is a great way to demonstrate fealty to Trump.
 
ZenMode said:
I don't think naturally occurring viruses should be our primary concern. Nature doesn't always do a good job of creating highly contagious viruses that are also extremely deadly. Usually it's one or the other, and COVID would be included in that. It was extremely contagious, but not very deadly.
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actually, it was pretty deadly at first. it was only after doctors learned how to treat it that the fatality rate dropped. and then of course there was a vaccine. what you seem not to understand is how that is connected to the various public health measures aimed at flattening the curve. if not for lockdowns, we would have had a huge # of infections at a time when hospitals were overburdened and doctors still didn't know how to treat it. so it would have been like nyc everywhere -- too many bodies for the local coffin supply.

also, nature doesn't have to always do a good job. it only has to occasionally do a good job. not even occasionally. once in a great while. and when it does, the results can be utterly horrific. maybe you think smallpox and the bubonic plague were lab-created, but i don't. same with malaria and mpox and hiv.

the scoreboard reads as follows: pandemics created by natural viruses: all of them. pandemics created by lab-created viruses: zero.

so obviously we should focus on the lab-created virus. lol. you seem to be a natural at the United States v Trump logic of john roberts. maybe you could apply for a clerkship?
 
superrific said:
actually, it was pretty deadly at first. it was only after doctors learned how to treat it that the fatality rate dropped. and then of course there was a vaccine. what you seem not to understand is how that is connected to the various public health measures aimed at flattening the curve. if not for lockdowns, we would have had a huge # of infections at a time when hospitals were overburdened and doctors still didn't know how to treat it. so it would have been like nyc everywhere -- too many bodies for the local coffin supply.

also, nature doesn't have to always do a good job. it only has to occasionally do a good job. not even occasionally. once in a great while. and when it does, the results can be utterly horrific. maybe you think smallpox and the bubonic plague were lab-created, but i don't. same with malaria and mpox and hiv.

the scoreboard reads as follows: pandemics created by natural viruses: all of them. pandemics created by lab-created viruses: zero.

so obviously we should focus on the lab-created virus. lol. you seem to be a natural at the United States v Trump logic of john roberts. maybe you could apply for a clerkship?
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You cherry picked a comment, took it out of context...and created a straw man to go along with it.

Nice work!
 
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Mulberry Heel said:
Indeed. I continue to be amused, as I have been since 2016, by the thought that the Religious Right has devotedly championed a virtual Anti-Christ as their hero and savior. The Bible speaks of False Prophets and people who will falsely claim to speak in Christ's name, and Trump is certainly a prime example. I grew up listening to people in church tell us kids to keep an eye out for the rise of Anti-Christ and to make sure we weren't fooled by him. Well, here we are, and most conservative Christians have been suckered and pulled in hook, line, and sinker by a man who is the exact opposite of Christ and his teachings in almost every way imaginable.
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This. ALL of this. I’ve thought of this almost everyday. He is so obviously anti-Christ and if there is ever one in reality, he would be IT!
 
ZenMode said:
You cherry picked a comment, took it out of context...and created a straw man to go along with it.

Nice work!
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it was the topic sentence of your post. responding to the topic sentence is literally the opposite of cherry picking. if you don't want that to be the primary takeaway from your post, don't make it your topic sentence.

i dont make straw men because i don't need to and i didn't here. you said that manmade viruses should be our primary concern (or at least that natural viruses shouldn't, which to me amounts to pretty much the same thing here). what was your point if not that? and if that was your point, then I answered it without caricature.
 
ZenMode said:
I don't think naturally occurring viruses should be our primary concern. Nature doesn't always do a good job of creating highly contagious viruses that are also extremely deadly. Usually it's one or the other, and COVID would be included in that. It was extremely contagious, but not very deadly.

Our real concern should be with the rapidly developing synthetic biology industry and gain of function research that's happening at various labs around the world. We are creating, for really no good reason that I see, extremely contagious and extremely deadly viruses in labs. It only takes one mistake to put civilization at risk.
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ZenMode said:
I don't think naturally occurring viruses should be our primary concern. Nature doesn't always do a good job of creating highly contagious viruses that are also extremely deadly. Usually it's one or the other, and COVID would be included in that. It was extremely contagious, but not very deadly.

Our real concern should be with the rapidly developing synthetic biology industry and gain of function research that's happening at various labs around the world. We are creating, for really no good reason that I see, extremely contagious and extremely deadly viruses in labs. It only takes one mistake to put civilization at risk.
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Measles Polio Ebola: Malaria:

Hepatitis B: A potentially life-threatening liver infection that can cause chronic infection and liver cancer

Marburg virus disease: A disease with no available treatment or vaccine

Monkeypox: A rare viral disease that occurs primarily in tropical rainforest areas of central and west Africa
 
evrheel said:

Coronavirus Death To​

7,010,681 deaths

United States COVID - Coronavirus Statistics​

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Worldometer
https://www.worldometers.info › country › us

Coronavirus Cases: 111,820,082 ; Deaths: 1,219,487 ; Recovered: 109,814,428.
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Right. If you're talking about "we're screwed", as was referenced in the OP, ~1% is not a rate of death that is truly concerning. There are viruses that kill half of the people it infects. Those viruses are not very contagious. Naturally occurring viruses that are very contagious, like swine flu or COVID, are not extremely deadly.

However, manufactured viruses, like H5N1, are both very contagious and very deadly.
 
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