Where do we go from here?

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To a large part, you have to show a willingness to be a part of the process to benefit from it. I don't think that's best but politicians have always catered to those who support them. Staying home and not participating because no one cares ensures that no one is going to put much effort into reaching out. It's about ROI. They're are going to concentrate on those who will help them get reelected. Maybe not the best for Americans but it 's about the best that we can do. The only way to have a voice and make the sort of changes you want is to get your hands dirty. Calling for a plague on both your hoses gets you doubly ignored.
My hands have been dirty for 2 decades. I've done thousands of hours of phone banking and canvassing. I've donated money i didn't really have to donate. I've worked to promote candidates that I thought were better for everyone, not just me and sometimes not even necessarily me.

If it is about ROI for the politicians and about ROI for older voters and about ROI for younger voters, then where is the ROI for those of us who are say 45-60?

For example, by the time I retire, I will have paid into social security for at least 45 years. I've been working since I was 15 and never without a job since then. How much ROI do you think I'll see on that investment? My guess...zero. Those older than me seem content to only protect it for themselves and those younger know it's going away and don't care.

That's just one of many ways those of us sandwiched in the middle are sick to death of hearing about the woes of everyone younger and older. It isnt as if we hit adulthood in some sort of guilded age. We just figured our own shit out. We bought our first houses and watched 30% of their value evaporate overnight because those older and wiser than us ran the mortgage market into the ditch. We figured it out. We were the first generation who largely borrowed money to get through college and we figured that out and figured out how to repay it. We mostly came from screwy family situations and we're known as "latch-key" kids for a reason. We figured it out.

I'm proud as hell of younger people for mostly figuring things out for themselves these days. However, politically, I'm sick to death of the whining from both sides of the age spectrum.
 
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My hands have been dirty for 2 decades. I've done thousands of hours of phone banking and canvassing. I've donated money i didn't really have to donate. I've worked to promote candidates that I thought were better for everyone, not just me and sometimes not even necessarily me.

If it is about ROI for the politicians and about ROI for older voters and about ROI for you get voters, then where is the ROI for those of us who are say 45-60?

For example, by the time I retire, I will have paid into social security for at least 45 years. I've been working since I was 15 and never without a job since then. How much ROI do you think I'll see on that investment? My guess...zero. Those older than me seem content to only protect it for themselves and those younger know it's going away and don't care.

That's just one of many ways those of us sandwiched in the middle are sick to death of hearing about the woes of everyone you get and older. It isnt as if we hit adulthood in some sort of guilded age. We just figured our own shit out. We bought our first houses and watched 30% of their value evaporate overnight because those older and wiser than us ran the mortgage market into the ditch. We figured it out. We were the first generation who largely borrowed money to get through college and we figured that out and figured out how to repay it. We mostly came from screwy family situations and we're known as "latch-key" kids for a reason. We figured it out.

I'm proud as hell of younger people for mostly figuring things out for themselves these days. However, politically, I'm sick to death of the whining from both sides of the age spectrum.
Not addressing you in particular but your assertion that your generation was over it.

I will note that that age group is always disillusioned. They've accepted that they didn't see the world change like they anticipated, their levels of success in their life and profession are closely defined and they are worried about their retirement and what that will bring. It damned sure scared me to death. I ain't lying when I tell you I had more suicidal thoughts then than any time since my teen years.

Once again, I don't mean to be humoring you. I can't really put myself in your place either individually or generationally. For numerous reasons, I'm more of the world than in it but that's a tough age.
 
What does a centrist campaign look like to you? From what I can tell based on your posts, you’re more so talking about just being more in touch with working people. Are there centrist policy positions that accomplish this?
Sorry for late, holiday response.
NOTE: Perception vs policy positions
I look at campaigns same as marketing campaigns. What matters is perception that you convey to the buyer or voter. The broad strokes thing. Value to the buyer or voter.

Getting in the weeds on specific issues which Democrats tend to do, while necessary, will confuse voters if you're not careful. Voters on average don't hear about 25,000 or whatever. Average voters know how bad Trump is. But they may have picked up on the perception that Trump was fighting for them.

Granted. There was a bad perception of Trump. But this election was equal in that there was also a bad perception of Harris. Much of that had to do with the fact she wouldn't throw Joe under the bus and make clear she was different. She would argue there wasn't time for that. But wasn't that the whole point of changing horses?

You can claim she ran as a centrist.........but not really when it came to voter's perceptions. They knew Biden governed from the left and she was tied to that.

This Presidential Election was screwed up. But evidence is pointing to Democrat perception issues across the board. Look at the Senate races in Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Penn. Those candidates worked hard to put some distance between themselves and the perception of the Democratic party. It was interesting to me, that in Arizona, that Gallego flat out ran away from his progressive roots. Why did he have to do that against a screwed up, Trump like opponent?
 
Sorry for late, holiday response.
NOTE: Perception vs policy positions
I look at campaigns same as marketing campaigns. What matters is perception that you convey to the buyer or voter. The broad strokes thing. Value to the buyer or voter.

Getting in the weeds on specific issues which Democrats tend to do, while necessary, will confuse voters if you're not careful. Voters on average don't hear about 25,000 or whatever. Average voters know how bad Trump is. But they may have picked up on the perception that Trump was fighting for them.

Granted. There was a bad perception of Trump. But this election was equal in that there was also a bad perception of Harris. Much of that had to do with the fact she wouldn't throw Joe under the bus and make clear she was different. She would argue there wasn't time for that. But wasn't that the whole point of changing horses?

You can claim she ran as a centrist.........but not really when it came to voter's perceptions. They knew Biden governed from the left and she was tied to that.

This Presidential Election was screwed up. But evidence is pointing to Democrat perception issues across the board. Look at the Senate races in Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Penn. Those candidates worked hard to put some distance between themselves and the perception of the Democratic party. It was interesting to me, that in Arizona, that Gallego flat out ran away from his progressive roots. Why did he have to do that against a screwed up, Trump like opponent?
Gallego didn’t run away from his progressive roots. He actually ran hard on the issues of corporate price gouging and antitrust. He had the same message on the border as the Harris campaign.

I don’t think the issues with Biden were that he “governed from the left.” It was like you said: the Democratic Party has major perception issues. A ton of voters perceive them as being an out of touch, technocratic party that is overly concerned with the interests of individual interest groups/minority groups over the interests of the wider American public.

Running left of economic issues actually helps this perception, to the extent that the economic message is a universal message, which is what Gallego did.

Democrats ran ahead of the top of the ticket in other areas, as you say. They did this despite having the same economic message as Harris and the Biden admin, largely. Then you have Dan Osborn, who was an unapologetic economic populist and ran well ahead of Harris in Nebraska.

I just thinking saying Democrats need to run a more centrist campaign needs to be fleshed out when people say that. It means different things to different people.

If you say Dems need to get back to a message that is more in line with the majority of the population, then I agree with that. That message isn’t necessarily a “centrist” message. Instead of left vs right, we need to think on lines of system vs anti-system.
 
1. We don't pay enough attention to strength of schedule. Josh Shapiro, Josh Stein and Gretchen Whitmer all look like world-beaters, until you realize that they beat the GOP JV team -- actually, not even the JV team. The JV bench warmers and the manager who got kicked off the team.

Same with Gallego. Yes he won and for that I'm grateful. But he would have lost to any GOPer other than Kari Lake. That's not necessarily an indictment of him or his campaign. Zona has a very long history with the GOP, and Gallego was fighting in a tough environment. I simply think it would be a mistake to think, "we should be more like Gallego" just because he won.

2. As for Osborn, I hate to say it but that is fools' gold. We've seen this play out many times before. There are no lessons to be had from what turned out to be not a close race at all. Texas should be the guide here. We got excited about Beto because there were polls in October showing him winning -- but he didn't and it wasn't all that close. We got excited about Osborn because there were polls showing him in the lead . . . but the polls were wrong and he lost by almost 7 points.

And in terms of Nebraska, Osborn had several advantages. First, not running as a Dem is helpful there because so much of politics is negative partisanship, which was initially not available when people didn't really know who he was. Second, Fischer was coasting, thinking that she had no real opposition. She's also the most unpopular Senator in the country among her constituents, for reasons I don't know and don't care to learn. Third, it happens that enthusiasm for safe incumbents can be low, because the voters don't think there's much of a race. When it turned out to be closer than people thought, the GOP voters held their noses (if they don't like Fischer -- again, I don't know why) and did their jobs.

In other words, as soon as the GOP started to pay attention that race, Fischer coasted. That's not to say anything bad about Osborn or his campaign. It's just not informative. He lost by a margin that would be considered quite big in other states. That he outperformed Harris isn't really significant. It's probably just Jamie Harrison vs Lindsey Graham. Or anybody vs Ted Cruz. Or that weird election where a Dem actually won AL because the GOP ran a child molester and apparently some GOP folks still cared about that.

3. This isn't unique to Dems. Remember how Larry Hogan was going to make MD a nail biter? He lost by 12 points. He made it a little closer than it had been in previous years -- the Dem got only 55% of the vote instead of the usual 60 -- but I don't think Republicans are going to looking to Larry Hogan for tips on how to win in blue areas.

The problem that goes both ways is that the GOP are no more able to reverse their MD fortunes in one cycle than Dems can in NE. It will take a sustained effort. But how? In what direction? Osborn's candidacy told us nothing useful. It's possible that his campaign does point a good way forward, but we don't really know. Maybe there's a world in which the GOP can take a Larry Hogan strategy to the Senate by, say, 2032 -- but again, how?

The other problem is that all politics has become identity politics, and it's mostly nationalized as well. So what is most important by far -- by really far -- is the national message. And Dan Osborn's ability to lose by less in NE or Larry Hogan losing by less in MD isn't going to tell us what works. It's pretty easy to go from 40% to 45%. As Dems in NC know all too well, as do GOPers in NV, it's the last two points that are the hardest by far. I suspect it would be possible to craft a message that could outperform our current state in all the Plains states. Maybe we can lose SD by 8 instead of 15 -- and that, of course, is worth nothing.
 
Brother, I’ve got some bad news for you.
It's interesting that you think it would be bad news in that direction. I think it's the other way around. I know you believe the path to reach those who have thus far been unmotivated is to lurch to the left on policy, but you have a real blind spot with how many that will completely alienate who are high propensity voters and have been solidly Dem for a while now.
 
It's interesting that you think it would be bad news in that direction. I think it's the other way around. I know you believe the path to reach those who have thus far been unmotivated is to lurch to the left on policy, but you have a real blind spot with how many that will completely alienate who are high propensity voters and have been solidly Dem for a while now.
I don’t think you understand what I’m saying.
 
Gallego didn’t run away from his progressive roots. He actually ran hard on the issues of corporate price gouging and antitrust. He had the same message on the border as the Harris campaign.

I don’t think the issues with Biden were

If you say Dems need to get back to a message that is more in line with the majority of the population, then I agree with that. That message isn’t necessarily a “centrist” message. Instead of left vs right, we need to think on lines of system vs anti-s

Gallego didn’t run away from his progressive roots. He actually ran hard on the issues of corporate price gouging and antitrust. He had the same message on the border as the Harris campaign.
.....
I just thinking saying Democrats need to run a more centrist campaign needs to be fleshed out when people say that. It means different things to different people.

If you say Dems need to get back to a message that is more in line with the majority of the population, then I agree with that. That message isn’t necessarily a “centrist” message. Instead of left vs right, we need to think on lines of system vs anti-system.
From what I have read, Gallego has made some considerable pivots but ok.

Actually, your last paragraph I completely agree. Dovetailing your comment: Its obvious many voters feel the system is not working for them. So let's offer a system changing proposal or two. But must be something easily grasped by voters which is where messaging comes in with a good messenger.

I predict in four years we will see a candidate or two go that route.
 
From what I have read, Gallego has made some considerable pivots but ok.

Actually, your last paragraph I completely agree. Dovetailing your comment: Its obvious many voters feel the system is not working for them. So let's offer a system changing proposal or two. But must be something easily grasped by voters which is where messaging comes in with a good messenger.

I predict in four years we will see a candidate or two go that route.
To be clear, Gallego did make some pivots in his campaign compared to his time in Congress. I’m not disputing that. I just disagree that he ran away from his progressive roots, as you phrased it.

We didn’t see him outright disavow positions he had taken in the past like Harris did. His message was still authentically connected to his identity and credentials as a progressive.

I don’t think we should be ideologically pure socialists, despite what some people want to make the left’s position out to be. Progressive populist economic policy is widely popular. That’s why Trump embraces it to some degree as well. A calculated turn to the center on economic issues isn’t the answer, IMO.

We need to get away from the hyper specific culture issues and back to universal programs. That codes as “centrist” to a lot of voters who consider themselves centrist but actually have quite progressive economic views.
 
Just that socialists aren’t “as left-wing as they come” by any definition.
They’re no where close to being centrists or even Liberals.

Who is to the Left of socialists? Communists? Bolsheviks? Marxists? Stalinists? Maoists?

Socialists are pretty damn Left and would get buried in an American general election.
 
They’re no where close to being centrists or even Liberals.

Who is to the Left of socialists? Communists? Bolsheviks? Marxists? Stalinists? Maoists?

Socialists are pretty damn Left and would get buried in an American general election.
Not arguing that. It would be news to a lot of communists and anarchists that socialism is the furthest left you can go.
 
We need to get away from the hyper specific culture issues and back to universal programs. That codes as “centrist” to a lot of voters who consider themselves centrist but actually have quite progressive economic views.
You know, this universal program issue popped into my head the other day. It was after some intense marital fun, so I don't remember all of it. A pity, because I'm quite sure I had it all figured out. Alas, I'll have to make do with what I do remember:

What's the most popular universal program in our history? People say SS or Medicare, and those are good answers. But was anything quite as popular and quite as universal as the interstate highway system? As you know, I'm concerned that drained-pool politics have sapped universal programs of their appeal; plenty of white voters have shown that they would rather do without than let the black people have any. But what about disguised universal programs, like interstates? People think of them as roads. People know they benefit from them. I've never known anyone who was upset at the racial implications, nobody who has complained about minorities suckling off the state teat, etc.

And this gets us back to Ezra's point about a liberalism that builds. The problem, of course, is that building things is -- well, the same interstate system that produced great roads and faith in our system also created urban sprawl. Liberals rightly resist more road construction, because down that path lies more global warming, more gasoline expenses for people, and more road construction for when the new roads get clogged up.

So if building roads isn't going to be the plan, what is? Mass transit? Nah, half the country or more is poisoned against the idea, mostly because it's been done poorly where it's been tried in the past 50 years. Housing? Sure, but that's not really universal.

And this brings me back to thinking about the Apollo program, which I have always considered highly overrated. I've never thought of that as a particularly noteworthy accomplishment of the Dems in the 60s, at least when it comes to policy. But I suppose there is something to be said -- and perhaps a lot more than I have thought -- for its role in creating faith in the system. The value of picking a goal, and then delivering -- it tells people that the government isn't an inept pile of shit institution. When was the last time the US government was ahead of schedule on any really big project?

So maybe we just need to pick some area of public investment and say, "this is our goal. We're going to do it." That was something of the premise of the Green New Deal, which bombed for all the usual reasons (resistance to change, people who refuse to admit carbon is a problem, an eye-popping top-line, headline cost figure, etc.). But it's also not a great candidate for what I have in mind because it's non-experiential. You might find yourself cruising on a highway and thinking, "wow, it's so great that we have this road that goes just where I need it to go." Nobody ever thinks that way about zero carbon emissions.

No more space stuff, for a variety of reasons. We really could do with a revamped electric grid, but again, that doesn't make people happy. The American public will always underinvest in safety and reliability because you can't see them, or experience them, or know they exist. Stadiums would be a possibility, but we already have way too many of them and anyway, they tend to benefit wealthy interests.

We need to find something that is a) big enough to have a major impact and high visibility; b) worth doing; and c) will improve people's lives in a tangible way. Any ideas? I don't have any.
 
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