2 Days out predictions for Electoral College

BlueSmoke said:
AZ Trump
GA Trump
NC Trump
PA Harris
MI Harris
NV Don't think it matters
WI Tipping point state. Harris by less then 7,000 votes for EC win!!!!!

Not sure there's been much focus on WI by posters. I suspect there needs to be.
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I have NC in a shocker FTW for Harris!
 
Mulberry Heel said:
That looks good, but I would add GA to that list. The early voting numbers for Kamala in GA look better today.
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I genuinely hope I am wrong, but I think the GQP's attempts at clearing out voters will give 45 the victory there.

Those folks there don't care. They think they're doing the nation a service by disenfranchising people.
 
This suggests some good polling news in PA:



But also looks like the vigilant officials may have caught some chicanery … they’ve taken care not to give too many details about the alleged perps ahead of the election.

 
Keep an eye on this guy vis-a-vis the investigation in PA:
[Moved to election legal thread to undo hijack of this one]
 
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I'm thinking it's like the Tar Heels being down at the half but coming back and whipping that ass in the end. These polls are the latest form of doom scrolling and are basically irrelevant. When Kamala Harris wins convincingly I'ma gonna holler "Never a Doubt!" Like I do when the Heels win a squeaker!
 
nycfan said:
This suggests some good polling news in PA:



But also looks like the vigilant officials may have caught some chicanery … they’ve taken care not to give too many details about the alleged perps ahead of the election.

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Yeah - Trump's internals must not be good.

Trump and MAGA have been setting up the false narrative (per Morning Consult, Ipsos, other highly rated LV polls) that they've had a massive surge, so when Trump loses, they can claim fraud, and they will.
 
lawtig02 said:
Here are my final predictions in the swing states. I'm a mere pean, so no expertise here, but I feel really, really good that Kamala will pull this thing out.

MI -- Kamala +4
WI -- Kamala +2
PA -- Kamala +2
NC -- Kamala +4
GA -- Kamala +1 (maybe one vote :))
NV -- Trump +1
AZ -- Trump +2
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I would rank my level of confidence aa

Michigan
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Nevada
North Carolina
Georgia
Arizona
 
lawtig02 said:
Here are my final predictions in the swing states. I'm a mere pean, so no expertise here, but I feel really, really good that Kamala will pull this thing out.

MI -- Kamala +4
WI -- Kamala +2
PA -- Kamala +2
NC -- Kamala +4
GA -- Kamala +1 (maybe one vote :))
NV -- Trump +1
AZ -- Trump +2
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You sould start a Church I would join
 
I'm not gonna predict who wins swing states again, but here's how I would predict their order in terms of Kamala's margin (i.e., highest on the list is the state where I think she has the best final margin, lowest the worst):

1. Michigan
2. Wisconsin
3. Georgia
4. Pennsylvania
5. NC
6. Nevada
7. Arizona

If I'm right, that would mean it all comes down to PA. Putting GA over PA is a risky call, but I like the vibes in the Atlanta suburbs better than I do in Pittsburgh.

Putting NC over Nevada may also be surprising, but I'm worried that Trump's "young male focused" strategy will pay off in NV most of all.
 
lawtig02 said:
Here are my final predictions in the swing states. I'm a mere pean, so no expertise here, but I feel really, really good that Kamala will pull this thing out.

MI -- Kamala +4
WI -- Kamala +2
PA -- Kamala +2
NC -- Kamala +4
GA -- Kamala +1 (maybe one vote :))
NV -- Trump +1
AZ -- Trump +2
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I would agree with that, except NC+4. Or maybe that's right, but Georgia three points behind NC just doesn't seem all that likely. Maybe.

I would swap NC with Wisky at the very least.
 
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