2 Days out predictions for Electoral College

superrific said:
I would agree with that, except NC+4. Or maybe that's right, but Georgia three points behind NC just doesn't seem all that likely. Maybe.

I would swap NC with Wisky at the very least.
Click to expand...
I know. I've just hung my hat on NC+4 a few times now, so I decided to stick with it here. If I was doing this today and not manipulating NC for my ego, it would probably be something like this --

MI -- Kamala +5
WI -- Kamala +4
PA -- Kamala +2
NC -- Kamala +2
GA -- Kamala +2
NV -- Trump +1
AZ -- Trump +1
 
My rankings of her margin - best to worst:

1. Michigan
2. Wisconsin
3. North Carolina (raise up!)
4. PA
5. Nevada
6. Iowa (just kidding) - Georgia
7. Arizona
 
Trump wins Georgia, WIsconsion, Nevada and Arizona

Kamala wins North Carolina, Michigan and PA
 
This thread is starting to sound like our pre-JMU predictions. Other than yellow jacket, I am not sure I've seen a single Trump prediction. That is kind of wild.
 
Calheel said:
This thread is starting to sound like our pre-JMU predictions. Other than yellow jacket, I am not sure I've seen a single Trump prediction. That is kind of wild.
Click to expand...
That might have something to do with the fact that he's been fellating microphones, riding around in a garbage truck, resorting to the crudest racism we have seen in more than a generation at least, and his crowds have zero energy. Oh, also no ground game and he's pissed off Puerto Ricans and maybe Hispanics in general when he was sort of counting on those votes to offset all the white college grads he's lost.

I mean, other than polls, which are now herding improbably and comically, what does Trump have going for him? Even the early vote is a double edged sword. Sure, Pubs are voting in NC but turnout among women is still 4 points better than among men. In terms of total votes, male votes are 10% behind female votes. He has to be KILLING IT with male voters to overcome the deficit there.
 
rodoheel said:
But really, man? Florida? Where no poll has ever shown Harris ahead or even tied, as far as I can tell?
Click to expand...
I tend to think that Florida is a bridge too far . . . but there was that poll from FL showing K with an 85-8 lead among Puerto Ricans. That's awful for Trump. And if other Hispanics get the message that "hmm, maybe they really, really don't like us," there could be a surprise there in Florida.

Nationwide, it seems as though the Hispanic vote is trending away from Trump. Someone posted a poll showing Hispanics at 69% for Kamala, which would exceed Biden and HRC's #s. 69% for Kamala among Hispanics doesn't necessarily deliver Florida but it starts to get it close.
 
rodoheel said:
But really, man? Florida? Where no poll has ever shown Harris ahead or even tied, as far as I can tell?
Click to expand...
Oh no, I don’t actually really think she’s going to win Florida, I just wanted to take a wild stab at some crazy upset. I don’t truly believe she’s going to win there.
 
EhouseSouth can't be bothered with updating thread title. But I get it. He's not tuned in at all....
 
I was pretty bearish on Kamala’s chances until the last 10 days or so. It does seem Kamala’s closing message and Trumps insanity/MSG rally seems to have finally broken our way in late deciders. I’ll rank them in likelihood
1. Michigan- would be shocked if she lost this, think she prolly wins this by 3-4 pts
2. wisconsin- the iowa and kansas polls are picking up something that i think moves to wisconsin, she wins this by 2-3 pts i think

3. PA, NC, Nevada, GA- in that order; I think this is where it gets tight and I think she wins all these, or at least 3 of them. In the 0.5-1.5 pt range

4. Trump gets arizona.

Dems win house
Senate, with Osborn winning NE, is 50-50.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top