2024 Political Polls

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CLT Heel said:
One thing I’m curious about when it comes to polling (and why I also to some Degree downplay polling numbers): I’ve talked to many of my friends about it, and ultimately all of them who get invited to participate in a poll and decline or ignore them are all voting blue, while my red acquaintances are more than willing and even search out the opportunity to talk a poll they are voting for Trump. How do they take this into consideration? I feel like the dem numbers, as good as they are, are probably underrepresented
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I think that is what has really changed since 2016, which was the total opposite
 
At this point, it’s getting hard to tell whether some pundits are just hopelessly pessimistic by nature, or if they are being recreationally contrarian. There is no objective way to look at the aggregate polling data, the crowd sizes at the Harris rallies, the groundswell of grassroots volunteers, the jaw dropping fundraising numbers, and the overall energy, excitement, and enthusiasm permeating through the Democratic base, and not believe that Harris is currently leading and pulling away. At this point it would take one of the most dramatic reversals fortunes that we have ever seen in modern American politics for Donald Trump to regain the edge. Sure, it’s possible. But it is becoming more and more improbable with each passing day.
 
CLT Heel said:
One thing I’m curious about when it comes to polling (and why I also to some Degree downplay polling numbers): I’ve talked to many of my friends about it, and ultimately all of them who get invited to participate in a poll and decline or ignore them are all voting blue, while my red acquaintances are more than willing and even search out the opportunity to talk a poll they are voting for Trump. How do they take this into consideration? I feel like the dem numbers, as good as they are, are probably underrepresented
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Yeah, I probably get 2-3 political text surveys and 1-2 calls per day. When it first started, I picked up a couple of the calls because it was a local number and I was expecting some contractor calls. Since that point, I stopped picking up any unknown number. Just not interested.
 
quakerdevil said:
This is misleading. Closing the gap does not equal chance of winning
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Totally agree. But as I said above, closing the gap in a place like Texas may not ultimately lead to Texas going blue, but if the same trend exists in similar states like North Carolina and Georgia that are already purple and trending blue, or even Florida and Ohio, it’s really bad news for the Trump campaign and it probably means they are going to get their ass kicked.

Plus, every extra dollar or appearance that the Trump campaign has to spend in a place like Texas, is one less dollar and appearance that it can spend in a state that actually matters for the electoral college outcome. And considering the Trump campaign has already spent the last two weeks campaigning in battleground states while Dementia Don hides in the basement at Mar-a-Lago, they have a ton of ground to make up in swing states and they are running out of time to do so.
 
CLT Heel said:
One thing I’m curious about when it comes to polling (and why I also to some Degree downplay polling numbers): I’ve talked to many of my friends about it, and ultimately all of them who get invited to participate in a poll and decline or ignore them are all voting blue, while my red acquaintances are more than willing and even search out the opportunity to talk a poll they are voting for Trump. How do they take this into consideration? I feel like the dem numbers, as good as they are, are probably underrepresented
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MUST ... NOT ... ENGAGE ... AND ... SHARE ... MY ... THOUGHTS ... ABOUT ... POLLING ....

Surprised GIF by ABC Network
 
CFordUNC said:
At this point, it’s getting hard to tell whether some pundits are just hopelessly pessimistic by nature, or if they are being recreationally contrarian. There is no objective way to look at the aggregate polling data, the crowd sizes at the Harris rallies, the groundswell of grassroots volunteers, the jaw dropping fundraising numbers, and the overall energy, excitement, and enthusiasm permeating through the Democratic base, and not believe that Harris is currently leading and pulling away. At this point it would take one of the most dramatic reversals fortunes that we have ever seen in modern American politics for Donald Trump to regain the edge. Sure, it’s possible. But it is becoming more and more improbable with each passing day.
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Trump has three main problems right now.

1. Everybody knows him and almost everyone’s thoughts about him are fully formed, so he has virtually no chance to increase the number of people who will vote for him.

2. Trump uses the machine gun-style of political rhetoric, which means he has nothing new to play right now. He’s become boring and stale. And he’s made it clear he’s unwilling to change his style.

3. He’s committed to a deeply negative dystopian view of America that almost nobody actually experiences. Voters clearly want a hopeful message about where we’re headed, and Trump’s message is all about where we’ve been.

I just can’t see 1 or 2 changing before November. 3 could, but it would take an enormous event of global significance. That could happen any time, but the longer we go, the smaller Trump’s window becomes.
 
CFordUNC said:
At this point, it’s getting hard to tell whether some pundits are just hopelessly pessimistic by nature, or if they are being recreationally contrarian. There is no objective way to look at the aggregate polling data, the crowd sizes at the Harris rallies, the groundswell of grassroots volunteers, the jaw dropping fundraising numbers, and the overall energy, excitement, and enthusiasm permeating through the Democratic base, and not believe that Harris is currently leading and pulling away. At this point it would take one of the most dramatic reversals fortunes that we have ever seen in modern American politics for Donald Trump to regain the edge. Sure, it’s possible. But it is becoming more and more improbable with each passing day.
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It’s not recreational, it’s a business model.
 
HeelingAg said:
Yeah, I probably get 2-3 political text surveys and 1-2 calls per day. When it first started, I picked up a couple of the calls because it was a local number and I was expecting some contractor calls. Since that point, I stopped picking up any unknown number. Just not interested.
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I get several a day it seems as well. Some of which are addressed to me. Others are for someone else.
 
CFordUNC said:
Totally agree. But as I said above, closing the gap in a place like Texas may not ultimately lead to Texas going blue, but if the same trend exists in similar states like North Carolina and Georgia that are already purple and trending blue, or even Florida and Ohio, it’s really bad news for the Trump campaign and it probably means they are going to get their ass kicked.

Plus, every extra dollar or appearance that the Trump campaign has to spend in a place like Texas, is one less dollar and appearance that it can spend in a state that actually matters for the electoral college outcome. And considering the Trump campaign has already spent the last two weeks campaigning in battleground states while Dementia Don hides in the basement at Mar-a-Lago, they have a ton of ground to make up in swing states and they are running out of time to do so.
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Ehh I don’t think the Trump campaign is worried about Texas, and moreover aren’t going to divert dollars from swing states to Texas. Because if they need to spend resources in Texas the election outcome is a foregone conclusion so what would be the point?
 
lawtig02 said:
Oh, I know. Barring a major shift in momentum, I actually think the whole election is now down to Pennsylvania, but we’ll see where it goes from here. I’m hoping we got the tidal waves out of the way early.
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I have it likely 241-219 giving Harris Michigan. Election comes down to PA, Wisconsin, Nevada, Arizona, NC, and GA and it’s unlikely Nevada is anything more than superfluous. Trump has to win a midwest state to get it done (and sweep the others). Harris has other paths, including basically ending the election if she wins NC and GA
 
And it is "funny " that Biden and Harris have pretty much identical policies (assumming here a bit )-but Harris is worth maybe 30 more EC votes.I mean I get it......
 
Sheetsfaced said:
Ehh I don’t think the Trump campaign is worried about Texas, and moreover aren’t going to divert dollars from swing states to Texas. Because if they need to spend resources in Texas the election outcome is a foregone conclusion so what would be the point?
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Great points, for sure.
 
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