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It’s not recreational, it’s a business model.At this point, it’s getting hard to tell whether some pundits are just hopelessly pessimistic by nature, or if they are being recreationally contrarian. There is no objective way to look at the aggregate polling data, the crowd sizes at the Harris rallies, the groundswell of grassroots volunteers, the jaw dropping fundraising numbers, and the overall energy, excitement, and enthusiasm permeating through the Democratic base, and not believe that Harris is currently leading and pulling away. At this point it would take one of the most dramatic reversals fortunes that we have ever seen in modern American politics for Donald Trump to regain the edge. Sure, it’s possible. But it is becoming more and more improbable with each passing day.
Yeah, I want that gig.As an aside, how did it become socially acceptable to just blather on sitting in your car? Who approved this?
I get several a day it seems as well. Some of which are addressed to me. Others are for someone else.Yeah, I probably get 2-3 political text surveys and 1-2 calls per day. When it first started, I picked up a couple of the calls because it was a local number and I was expecting some contractor calls. Since that point, I stopped picking up any unknown number. Just not interested.
Ehh I don’t think the Trump campaign is worried about Texas, and moreover aren’t going to divert dollars from swing states to Texas. Because if they need to spend resources in Texas the election outcome is a foregone conclusion so what would be the point?Totally agree. But as I said above, closing the gap in a place like Texas may not ultimately lead to Texas going blue, but if the same trend exists in similar states like North Carolina and Georgia that are already purple and trending blue, or even Florida and Ohio, it’s really bad news for the Trump campaign and it probably means they are going to get their ass kicked.
Plus, every extra dollar or appearance that the Trump campaign has to spend in a place like Texas, is one less dollar and appearance that it can spend in a state that actually matters for the electoral college outcome. And considering the Trump campaign has already spent the last two weeks campaigning in battleground states while Dementia Don hides in the basement at Mar-a-Lago, they have a ton of ground to make up in swing states and they are running out of time to do so.
I have it likely 241-219 giving Harris Michigan. Election comes down to PA, Wisconsin, Nevada, Arizona, NC, and GA and it’s unlikely Nevada is anything more than superfluous. Trump has to win a midwest state to get it done (and sweep the others). Harris has other paths, including basically ending the election if she wins NC and GAOh, I know. Barring a major shift in momentum, I actually think the whole election is now down to Pennsylvania, but we’ll see where it goes from here. I’m hoping we got the tidal waves out of the way early.
Great points, for sure.Ehh I don’t think the Trump campaign is worried about Texas, and moreover aren’t going to divert dollars from swing states to Texas. Because if they need to spend resources in Texas the election outcome is a foregone conclusion so what would be the point?
Roe changed everything.And it is "funny " that Biden and Harris have pretty much identical policies (assumming here a bit )-but Harris is worth maybe 30 more EC votes.I mean I get it......
Sir, you definitely should not play defense in Florida, sir, you already have the bigliest lead ever in Florida, sir, there's no way you could lose Florida, sir, many people are saying it, you're hearing it more and more!
recent poll has Cruz up by 3pts...Ehh I don’t think the Trump campaign is worried about Texas, and moreover aren’t going to divert dollars from swing states to Texas. Because if they need to spend resources in Texas the election outcome is a foregone conclusion so what would be the point?
You know I'm more of a pessimist by nature. I agree with the first part of your premise - that Harris is leading and that lead appears to be growing. I do not agree with the second part - that "it would take one of the most dramatic reversals fortunes that we have ever seen in modern American politics for Donald Trump to regain the edge." There's a long time until the election and the Harris momentum will likely not continue all the way until election day. There's any number of things - bad economic news, international tension/conflict, major domestic incident, a bad debate performance by Kamala, etc - that could cause momentum to shift back; or, negative campaigning directed against Kamala and Walz could start to sit in and have more of an effect. Kamala's apparent lead right now is not as big as Clinton's was in the fall of 2016 when everyone thought she had the election sewed up. A "reversal of fortune" from this current posture would not be as dramatic as Trump's win in 2016, or even as dramatic as what we've seen in the last few weeks after Biden was replaced as the candidate. So I can't sign on to this sort of "it's all over barring a miracle" rhetoric. Still a long way to go; everything has gone great for Kamala so far but the election is still going to come down to a handful of states that will likely be fairly close.At this point, it’s getting hard to tell whether some pundits are just hopelessly pessimistic by nature, or if they are being recreationally contrarian. There is no objective way to look at the aggregate polling data, the crowd sizes at the Harris rallies, the groundswell of grassroots volunteers, the jaw dropping fundraising numbers, and the overall energy, excitement, and enthusiasm permeating through the Democratic base, and not believe that Harris is currently leading and pulling away. At this point it would take one of the most dramatic reversals fortunes that we have ever seen in modern American politics for Donald Trump to regain the edge. Sure, it’s possible. But it is becoming more and more improbable with each passing day.
Florida has demonstrated a remarkable ability to vote for Democratic policies when they’re directly on the ballot, while simultaneously electing the politicians that oppose those policies.Abortion and weed on the ballot. There is hope.
I hear you for sure! I've always really appreciated your views and perspective on this stuff. It's good to have folks to keep me grounded!You know I'm more of a pessimist by nature. I agree with the first part of your premise - that Harris is leading and that lead appears to be growing. I do not agree with the second part - that "it would take one of the most dramatic reversals fortunes that we have ever seen in modern American politics for Donald Trump to regain the edge." There's a long time until the election and the Harris momentum will likely not continue all the way until election day. There's any number of things - bad economic news, international tension/conflict, major domestic incident, a bad debate performance by Kamala, etc - that could cause momentum to shift back; or, negative campaigning directed against Kamala and Walz could start to sit in and have more of an effect. Kamala's apparent lead right now is not as big as Clinton's was in the fall of 2016 when everyone thought she had the election sewed up. A "reversal of fortune" from this current posture would not be as dramatic as Trump's win in 2016, or even as dramatic as what we've seen in the last few weeks after Biden was replaced as the candidate. So I can't sign on to this sort of "it's all over barring a miracle" rhetoric. Still a long way to go; everything has gone great for Kamala so far but the election is still going to come down to a handful of states that will likely be fairly close.
Last month we got Obama Care lolCan we get weed on the ballot in NC? Good grief this state...
I don't believe NC has a mechanism for getting propositions on the ballot via petition. The legislature has all the power to pass a law or not, or to put a proposition before the electorate or not. If a majority of the legislature opposes something, they are not going to risk a loss by putting it up for a vote by the electorate.Can we get weed on the ballot in NC? Good grief this state...