2024 Political Polls

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Igs149 said:
My suspicion is if she loses PA, the reasons will not be sufficiently state specific. And frankly the math gets very difficult from there.

NC going blue is, to me, a bit of a pipe dream. It took 8 years of Bush, an economic collapse and a generational talent in Obama to flip NC blue. And he managed that by 0.3%. And went 1 for 2 (losing the state to Romney in 2012). With Kamala trailing slightly in polling…it’s hard to see her winning here especially when I think she needs to stay so locked in on Michigan, Wisconsin and PA.

GA did surprise me last election though. But if I was her, I’d spend all that political capital and ground game in PA and Wisconsin. I think NC is likely a fools errand unless she was reliably outpolling Trump here.

The EC isn’t going away anytime soon so Democrats have to consider how to fine tune their messaging to make the Democratic coalition stronger in the Electoral College.
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With the Harris campaign putting money into NC and FL (and gaining ground there), you force Trump to do the same. And given the respective sizes of the war chests (I think that Harris had almost 2x as much money), that bleeding of Trump's money in NC/FL results in less money in other swing states, especially PA.
 
nycfan said:
The key question is how much of that is catching up from registrations that were flagging for months under Biden versus an indication of a year-over-election-year surge in these sorts of registrations?
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Still would be folks not captured previously plus momentum and enthusiasm
 
aGDevil2k said:
Still would be folks not captured previously plus momentum and enthusiasm
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Yeah, nyc’s point is a good one but I’m not sure it matters that much. Biden was largely struggling because his 2020 voters were unenthusiastic. Kamala recapturing that block was necessary. It may not be sufficient, but it’s necessary. So even if the registration numbers are showing catch up to 2020, that’s great news. And it should percolate out to new and established voters alike.
 
lawtig02 said:
Yeah, nyc’s point is a good one but I’m not sure it matters that much. Biden was largely struggling because his 2020 voters were unenthusiastic. Kamala recapturing that block was necessary. It may not be sufficient, but it’s necessary. So even if the registration numbers are showing catch up to 2020, that’s great news. And it should percolate out to new and established voters alike.
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All the people who registered in 2020 would still be registered in 2024 though. This represents a pick up not treading water. You don't have to re register to vote (at least until the GOP changes that)
 
uncgriff said:
All the people who registered in 2020 would still be registered in 2024 though. This represents a pick up not treading water. You don't have to re register to vote (at least until the GOP changes that)
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You kinda do. People die. Some even move. If you are not constantly registering voters, then you are losing votes.
 
uncgriff said:
All the people who registered in 2020 would still be registered in 2024 though. This represents a pick up not treading water. You don't have to re register to vote (at least until the GOP changes that)
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Right. I’m just saying a massive improvement in registration numbers in 2024 is highly likely to mean a corresponding increase in enthusiasm among existing voters. So it’s very good news on both fronts.
 
My 21 year old daughter registered this week. I’m not sure that happens if Biden was still running (despite her father’s best efforts).

This age group historically has a general disdain towards politicians and the choice between two very old white dudes (for women in particular) wasn’t all that appealing. Even if to many of us voting against trump should be ample motivation.
 
Bigs23 said:
My 21 year old daughter registered this week. I’m not sure that happens if Biden was still running (despite her father’s best efforts).

This age group historically has a general disdain towards politicians and the choice between two very old white dudes (for women in particular) wasn’t all that appealing. Even if to many of us voting against trump should be ample motivation.
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I hear you. I have an 18 year old who is completely unexcited about voting. I just have to remind myself that I was interested but not excited about voting at her age too.
 
PTOHeel said:
I hear you. I have an 18 year old who is completely unexcited about voting. I just have to remind myself that I was interested but not excited about voting at her age too.
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That’s interesting. After I turned 18, I was very excited that I could vote. I feel like most of my friends were as well.

That said, while I turned 18 in 1993, I didn’t vote until 1996. In 1993 it was all local elections (mayor, city council, etc.). In 1994, I had just started my freshman year of college so was in a different town. I wasn’t all that educated on the offices up for election that year. There was also no race for US Senate that year. Had there been, I would have voted. And in 1995, it was again just local elections and I was away for college.

I was very excited to vote in 1996. I didn’t vote in odd years (local elections) every time in my 20s, but I have every year since 2004. I think 2003 was the last year I did not vote.
 
heelinhell said:
me too !

Not only was I excited, I knocked on doors to campaign for McGovern

How naive was I at 18yo ? I actually thought he would beat Nixon and end the war in Viet Nam 😇
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McGovern door knocker as well. Mostly upper/middle class Raleigh. Doubt I changed anyone's mind.

ETA I was told it wouldn't do much good to door knock in CH. Thus I honed in on my old Raleigh neighborhoods.
 
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