2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

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aGDevil2k said:
Still would be folks not captured previously plus momentum and enthusiasm
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Yeah, nyc’s point is a good one but I’m not sure it matters that much. Biden was largely struggling because his 2020 voters were unenthusiastic. Kamala recapturing that block was necessary. It may not be sufficient, but it’s necessary. So even if the registration numbers are showing catch up to 2020, that’s great news. And it should percolate out to new and established voters alike.
 
lawtig02 said:
Yeah, nyc’s point is a good one but I’m not sure it matters that much. Biden was largely struggling because his 2020 voters were unenthusiastic. Kamala recapturing that block was necessary. It may not be sufficient, but it’s necessary. So even if the registration numbers are showing catch up to 2020, that’s great news. And it should percolate out to new and established voters alike.
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All the people who registered in 2020 would still be registered in 2024 though. This represents a pick up not treading water. You don't have to re register to vote (at least until the GOP changes that)
 
uncgriff said:
All the people who registered in 2020 would still be registered in 2024 though. This represents a pick up not treading water. You don't have to re register to vote (at least until the GOP changes that)
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You kinda do. People die. Some even move. If you are not constantly registering voters, then you are losing votes.
 
uncgriff said:
All the people who registered in 2020 would still be registered in 2024 though. This represents a pick up not treading water. You don't have to re register to vote (at least until the GOP changes that)
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Right. I’m just saying a massive improvement in registration numbers in 2024 is highly likely to mean a corresponding increase in enthusiasm among existing voters. So it’s very good news on both fronts.
 
My 21 year old daughter registered this week. I’m not sure that happens if Biden was still running (despite her father’s best efforts).

This age group historically has a general disdain towards politicians and the choice between two very old white dudes (for women in particular) wasn’t all that appealing. Even if to many of us voting against trump should be ample motivation.
 
Bigs23 said:
My 21 year old daughter registered this week. I’m not sure that happens if Biden was still running (despite her father’s best efforts).

This age group historically has a general disdain towards politicians and the choice between two very old white dudes (for women in particular) wasn’t all that appealing. Even if to many of us voting against trump should be ample motivation.
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I hear you. I have an 18 year old who is completely unexcited about voting. I just have to remind myself that I was interested but not excited about voting at her age too.
 
PTOHeel said:
I hear you. I have an 18 year old who is completely unexcited about voting. I just have to remind myself that I was interested but not excited about voting at her age too.
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That’s interesting. After I turned 18, I was very excited that I could vote. I feel like most of my friends were as well.

That said, while I turned 18 in 1993, I didn’t vote until 1996. In 1993 it was all local elections (mayor, city council, etc.). In 1994, I had just started my freshman year of college so was in a different town. I wasn’t all that educated on the offices up for election that year. There was also no race for US Senate that year. Had there been, I would have voted. And in 1995, it was again just local elections and I was away for college.

I was very excited to vote in 1996. I didn’t vote in odd years (local elections) every time in my 20s, but I have every year since 2004. I think 2003 was the last year I did not vote.
 
heelinhell said:
me too !

Not only was I excited, I knocked on doors to campaign for McGovern

How naive was I at 18yo ? I actually thought he would beat Nixon and end the war in Viet Nam 😇
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McGovern door knocker as well. Mostly upper/middle class Raleigh. Doubt I changed anyone's mind.

ETA I was told it wouldn't do much good to door knock in CH. Thus I honed in on my old Raleigh neighborhoods.
 
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uncgriff said:
All the people who registered in 2020 would still be registered in 2024 though. This represents a pick up not treading water. You don't have to re register to vote (at least until the GOP changes that)
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That depends on the criteria GOP officials in various states have used to purge their voter roles. As I recall when I lived in Ohio, if one didn't vote in x number of elections (including primaries) and did not respond to two requests to verify their registration (returning a card) you were removed from the voter rolls (claiming they assumed you had moved or died.) I can see a lot of people registering for a specific election then not voting for four years while ignoring the verification cards as junk mail. People who don't vote every time the polls are open really need to check their registrations, especially if you live in a state where Republicans dominate the apparatus.
 
grimes70 said:
McGovern door knocker as well. Mostly upper/middle class Raleigh. Doubt I changed anyone's mind.

ETA I was told it wouldn't do much good to door knock in CH. Thus I honed in on my old Raleigh neighborhoods.
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My girlfriend and I knocked on doors in rural Alamance and Caswell counties. We didn't change many minds,but we experienced solace in each others company
 
I’m not sure the numbers would be significant enough to impact final statewide results, but does anyone know if polling organizations include the excess mortality from Covid in Rep vs Dem after the introduction of vaccination in their models? There was no difference pre-vaccine, so would not have impacted the 2020 election.
 
statboy2 said:
I’m not sure the numbers would be significant enough to impact final statewide results, but does anyone know if polling organizations include the excess mortality from Covid in Rep vs Dem after the introduction of vaccination in their models? There was no difference pre-vaccine, so would not have impacted the 2020 election.
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You gotta think more Rs have joined Herman Cain at the big rally in the....
 
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