2024 Political Polls

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Along with Rasmussen, Trafalgar and Wick, InsiderAdvantage is another R-leaning flood the zone outfit (built in part to feed R-leaning polls into the RCP average).


But it is notable when Rasmussen/Trafalgar/Wick/Insider Advantage have races within the MOE.

Edit to add that Gold Crown Politics is one I see pop up more and more but they seem to be positioning themselves as polls for people who think Rasmussen is a communist polling outfit.

Edit further to add that Susquehanna and Co/Efficient and Quantus are also R-leaning pollsters.
 
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nycfan said:
Along with Rasmussen, Trafalgar and Wick, InsiderAdvantage is another R-leaning flood the zone outfit (built in part to feed R-leaning polls into the RCP average).


But it is notable when Rasmussen/Trafalgar/Wick/Insider Advantage have races within the MOE.

Edit to add that Gold Crown Politics is one I see pop up more and more but they seem to be positioning themselves as polls for people who think Rasmussen is a communist polling outfit.
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Yep. They are working to build a narrative
 
aGDevil2k said:
Yep. They are working to build a narrative
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I'm assuming we're talking multiple narratives:
1. The race is very close, so GQPers vote, vote, vote
2. The race is very close, so if Harris wins comfortably it's obviously due to fraud
3. The race is ttump's to win, so Dems, don't bother voting
4. Don't worry donald, the race is yours to win, here's your binky (i.e. favorable polls)
 
HeelingAg said:
I'm assuming we're talking multiple narratives:
1. The race is very close, so GQPers vote, vote, vote
2. The race is very close, so if Harris wins comfortably it's obviously due to fraud
3. The race is ttump's to win, so Dems, don't bother voting
4. Don't worry donald, the race is yours to win, here's your binky (i.e. favorable polls)
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2 and 4 were in my mind
 

Where the race between Trump and Harris stands on Labor Day, according to our polling expert​

A race that Kamala Harris leads nationally is the equivalent of a knife fight in a phone booth, and it’s set to be decided in a smaller-than-usual number of states.


“…
Of the seven states that both campaigns have identified as the core Electoral College battlegrounds, Harris leads Trump in three of them — the “Blue Wall” states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — according to multiple polling averages. But those leads are small: In only one state, Wisconsin, does an average show a greater than 3-point margin for the vice president.

In three others — Arizona, Georgia and Nevada — the polls are so close that different polling averages have different leaders as of Sunday night.

Only in the remaining swing state — North Carolina, which Trump won in both 2016 and 2020 — does the former president lead in all three polling averages: FiveThirtyEight, RealClearPolitics and Silver Bulletin, the new data-journalism site from FiveThirtyEight founder Nate Silver. But that lead is only around 1 point.

…

Arizona (11 electoral votes)​

FiveThirtyEight average: Harris +0.2
RealClearPolitics average: Trump +0.5
Silver Bulletin average: Trump +0.5
2020 result: Biden +0.3

…

North Carolina (16 electoral votes)​

FiveThirtyEight average: Trump +0.4
RealClearPolitics average: Trump +0.6
Silver Bulletin average: Trump +0.3
2020 result: Trump +1.3

The only battleground state where Trump leads in all three averages, but it’s still only by about 1 point — which was also his margin in last week’s Fox News poll. …”
 
HeelingAg said:
I'm assuming we're talking multiple narratives:
1. The race is very close, so GQPers vote, vote, vote
2. The race is very close, so if Harris wins comfortably it's obviously due to fraud
3. The race is ttump's to win, so Dems, don't bother voting
4. Don't worry donald, the race is yours to win, here's your binky (i.e. favorable polls)
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5. They cheated. The polls show we were winning.
 
I saw a poll today that had Harris up by 13 pts with women voters and Trump up by 5pts with men voters...

If the GQP voter suppression/nullification strategy is ineffective and voters are allowed to vote, Harris wins
 
aGDevil2k said:
Yep. They are working to build a narrative
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It's part and parcel of the entire right-wing media sphere.

The whole enterprise is set up on the idea that they can create a self-reinforcing, interrelated group of "sources" of info/data that all point in the same direction and tell the same story.

It's hard to make a case that right-wing biased polling is correct when you only have Rasmussen vs. everyone else. So, inevitably, there had to be the creation of a handful of right-wing polling groups so that all could get the same results and each was "evidence" of the others.

The entire point is to have an impenetrable information bubble where all info and data point to the right-wing narrative that's being given. It's much easier to do that when you have multiple vs one right-wing polling firm(s) to provide the needed data.
 
Remember that ActiVote poll I said existed but didn’t post because it added up to 101%? Turns out that was not their only issue, so will disregard that one going forward.

 
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