2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

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altmin said:
32 to 35% can make a big difference in say Nevada where Biden only one by 30,000 votes.

For a while I couldn't figure out why we were so worried about Nevada, then I remembered how close the margin was in 2020.

Looks like a state that will be solid red in 8 years.
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Rosen is up by 9 points in Nevada... Will Nevada vote a split ticket ? I don't think so...
 
farce© said:
Does this mean 40% of those questioned don’t know what it is?
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seemed like a low percentage to me, but you are most likely right. I would guess at least 65% of a poll respondents have no idea what it is.
 
Mulberry Heel said:
That's certainly good news. I wonder how it compares to 2016 and 2020 in terms of the partisan breakdown?
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I'm trying to look this up now.

So far I've found that in the Nov 2022 election, 1.4 million mail and absentee ballots were requested with a reported "roughly 70%" being registered Dems.

The numbers in that tweet show a 63% share for Dems by comparison.

ETA: In 2020, PA had more than 3 million requests for ballots. Can't find the party breakdown yet.
 
Milk and Cookies said:
I'm trying to look this up now.

So far I've found that in the Nov 2022 election, 1.4 million mail and absentee ballots were requested with a reported "roughly 70%" being registered Dems.

The numbers in that tweet show a 63% share for Dems by comparison.

ETA: In 2020, PA had more than 3 million requests for ballots. Can't find the party breakdown yet.
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I also wouldn’t glean much from 2020 due to the pandemic.
 
WaynetheDrain said:
It’s obviously a close race that will come down to a few key states, and I certainly don’t want to jinx it, but I’d rather be Kamala entering the final month than Trump.

More money, momentum on her side, and more of a chance to add to her coalition than Trump.
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I agree that I'd rather be Kamala than Trump right now. Things are going her way, she has actual growth/improvement potential, and she has more paths to victory than he does.

But I'm genuinely concerned that Trump has just enough support in the right places to just squeak out the wins where he really needs them.

(And my nightmare scenario is that Nebraska changes its apportionment law and we end up with a 269-269 EC tie despite Harris winning the popular vote that the House then throws to Trump. Not only do we have a second Trump term, but it occurs in a way that no one outside of MAGA will consider legitimate.)
 
CallMeTyler said:
America has spent enough time trying to convince themselves "principled" GOP officials still exist. Unfortunately, they've shown time and again that they're unwilling to put country over party.
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SnoopRob said:
I agree that I'd rather be Kamala than Trump right now. Things are going her way, she has actual growth/improvement potential, and she has more paths to victory than he does.

But I'm genuinely concerned that Trump has just enough support in the right places to just squeak out the wins where he really needs them.

(And my nightmare scenario is that Nebraska changes its apportionment law and we end up with a 269-269 EC tie despite Harris winning the popular vote that the House then throws to Trump. Not only do we have a second Trump term, but it occurs in a way that no one outside of MAGA will consider legitimate.)
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That is definitely the. Doomsday Scenario but a LOT would have to happen.

Of course we’ve seen the end of some UNC/dook games where it all did happen.
 
SnoopRob said:
I agree that I'd rather be Kamala than Trump right now. Things are going her way, she has actual growth/improvement potential, and she has more paths to victory than he does.

But I'm genuinely concerned that Trump has just enough support in the right places to just squeak out the wins where he really needs them.

(And my nightmare scenario is that Nebraska changes its apportionment law and we end up with a 269-269 EC tie despite Harris winning the popular vote that the House then throws to Trump. Not only do we have a second Trump term, but it occurs in a way that no one outside of MAGA will consider legitimate.)
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Out of curiosity, why would no one outside of MAGA consider it legitimate if the House decided a 269-269 election?
 
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