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2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

  • Thread starter Thread starter nycfan
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Blurb said:
You can get a high quality education by attending your local community college and then an instate institution for less than the cost of a used pickup truck.

Trump tells folks that the manufacturing jobs of the last century are coming back.

Those folks feel like they don’t need college.
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Yep. Right after Trump's first election in 2016 a news media site (can't remember which) sent a reporter to a dying steel/mining town in Pennsylvania to interview locals about Trump's appeal there - this was when the media was still fascinated by the kinds of people who would support Trump (the infamous NY Times Pitchbot "We traveled to a diner in Scranton and asked people there why they support Trump" kind of thing).

The article was actually pretty interesting and they interviewed not just Trumpers but people who didn't support him as well as minority voters. One guy they interviewed was the supervisor of a private program to help people who had lost jobs due to outsourcing or automation get retraining for other jobs. His office also helped these people find government financing for the classes and retraining they needed to take.

What I found interesting about this guy's story is that he said that most locals simply refused to use the program. He said that many of the people he talked to just wanted their old jobs back in mining or in the steel factories and so on. And that they seemed willing to wait for that to happen instead of actually trying to get other jobs. And he mentioned exactly what you said - that unlike the Democrats Trump promised them that if was elected their mines and steel factories and so on would return. And of course it didn't, but they're likely still clinging to that false hope seven years later.
 
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Mulberry Heel said:
For all the talk about blacks and Latinos switching to Trump, those polls don't indicate it. Trump got about 6% of the black vote in 2016 and 8% in 2020, and he's getting only 7% here. Latinos gave Trump 29% of the vote in 2016 and 32% in 2020 and 35% here, which is about in the range of what GOP presidential candidates usually get from Latinos (30 to 35 percent). I'll be very surprised if in November Trump does any better with those two groups than he did in 2020 or 2016.
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32 to 35% can make a big difference in say Nevada where Biden only one by 30,000 votes.

For a while I couldn't figure out why we were so worried about Nevada, then I remembered how close the margin was in 2020.

Looks like a state that will be solid red in 8 years.
 
altmin said:
32 to 35% can make a big difference in say Nevada where Biden only one by 30,000 votes.

For a while I couldn't figure out why we were so worried about Nevada, then I remembered how close the margin was in 2020.

Looks like a state that will be solid red in 8 years.
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I'm not so sure about that. Nevada for Republicans is like NC for Democrats - they keep coming close but also consistently keep coming up short. I still think Kamala will carry the state this year, and I don't think it will turn solid red. It's already a purple state, but that's about as far as it will go. And there's no guarantee that Trump will get that 35% either.
 
Mulberry Heel said:
For all the talk about blacks and Latinos switching to Trump, those polls don't indicate it. Trump got about 6% of the black vote in 2016 and 8% in 2020, and he's getting only 7% here. Latinos gave Trump 29% of the vote in 2016 and 32% in 2020 and 35% here, which is about in the range of what GOP presidential candidates usually get from Latinos (30 to 35 percent). I'll be very surprised if in November Trump does any better with those two groups than he did in 2020 or 2016.
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Well, these polls were after Trump went George Wallace during the debate and after. How any minority can vote for Trump after this debacle with the Haitians, I don't know. I mean, this vigilante shit is taking us back to the 1950s.
 
Mulberry Heel said:
For all the talk about blacks and Latinos switching to Trump, those polls don't indicate it. Trump got about 6% of the black vote in 2016 and 8% in 2020, and he's getting only 7% here. Latinos gave Trump 29% of the vote in 2016 and 32% in 2020 and 35% here, which is about in the range of what GOP presidential candidates usually get from Latinos (30 to 35 percent). I'll be very surprised if in November Trump does any better with those two groups than he did in 2020 or 2016.
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Agree. The story of this election will be generational voting, not changes to black and Latino voting patterns.
 
altmin said:
32 to 35% can make a big difference in say Nevada where Biden only one by 30,000 votes.

For a while I couldn't figure out why we were so worried about Nevada, then I remembered how close the margin was in 2020.

Looks like a state that will be solid red in 8 years.
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Rosen is up by 9 points in Nevada... Will Nevada vote a split ticket ? I don't think so...
 
farce© said:
Does this mean 40% of those questioned don’t know what it is?
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seemed like a low percentage to me, but you are most likely right. I would guess at least 65% of a poll respondents have no idea what it is.
 
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