2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

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dukeman92 said:
How is Pennsylvania so damn close...
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Trump is basically all in on PA right now. It is helping him there but with his more limited resources and his much more scaled back appearance schedule, it is likely to hurt him elsewhere. NC is also high on their list now as can be seen by the flurry of recent appearances here, but Robinson will continue to be a huge problem for him in NC.
 
RockyMtnHoo said:
Maybe it wouldn’t have made a difference, but will be a lot of Monday Morning QB’ing over not picking Shapiro if she loses PA.
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Call it hindsight or Monday morning QBing but I’ve said this all along. I really like Walz, he’s great and I have no doubt about his ability to do the job of VP. But I think she should have picked Shapiro.
 
altmin said:
Wait, so despite the debate, and fundraising advantage, and Trump basically hiding in mar a lago, Trump has had a +ten point shift in Arizona?


I beginning to think Sienna polling is just a monkey throwing darts.
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This poll result is the epitome of what triggers my "nothing fucking matters" impulse. The idea ttump is this close to a second, and unquestionable humanitarian disaster, term fans my misanthropy. It's a real energy diversion effort to fully activate my executive function and tell myself "This is one data point. The NYT has gone all in on bosiding. Polling appears more erratic this year than ever. You don't have to be a prisoner of your amygdala and hypothalamus."
 
HeelYeah2012 said:
Out of curiosity, why would no one outside of MAGA consider it legitimate if the House decided a 269-269 election?
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It's not only that the House decided the election at that point, it would be that we would get there due to Nebraska changing their election laws in Sept/Oct to benefit Trump and that again a winner of the popular vote would be left outside the WH due to the EC.
 
HeelingAg said:
This poll result is the epitome of what triggers my "nothing fucking matters" impulse. The idea ttump is this close to a second, and unquestionable humanitarian disaster, term fans my misanthropy. It's a real energy diversion effort to fully activate my executive function and tell myself "This is one data point. The NYT has gone all in on bosiding. Polling appears more erratic this year than ever. You don't have to be a prisoner of your amygdala and hypothalamus."
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Yeah, just view it all in the context of MOE and overall trends. AZ is definitely a challenge for Kamala, but it helps that the nut job Lake will also be on the ballot there. AZ is also not critical. I feel very good about MI and WI. I feel surprisingly good about NC, especially with the high probability more horrible stuff comes out about Robinson soon (there’s a reason for the resignations this weekend). Kamala is likely the slight favorite right now in PA and NV, and GA has generally broken to the Dems recently. So we’re in good shape. It’s not a done deal by any means, but we’re now less than a month and a half out, and 90% of the trends favor Kamala. Totally fine and rational to be terrified right now, but this election is ours for the taking.
 
lawtig02 said:
Yeah, just view it all in the context of MOE and overall trends. AZ is definitely a challenge for Kamala, but it helps that the nut job Lake will also be on the ballot there. AZ is also not critical. I feel very good about MI and WI. I feel surprisingly good about NC, especially with the high probability more horrible stuff comes out about Robinson soon (there’s a reason for the resignations this weekend). Kamala is likely the slight favorite right now in PA and NV, and GA has generally broken to the Dems recently. So we’re in good shape. It’s not a done deal by any means, but we’re now less than a month and a half out, and 90% of the trends favor Kamala. Totally fine and rational to be terrified right now, but this election is ours for the taking.
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Yeah, rationally I get it. Also, my 2016 election night experience will linger, probably for my lifetime. I was particularly pessimistic about what a ttump admin would likely entail and he outdid my expectations by A LOT.

My expectations for a second ttump admin is widespread internment, stochastic right-wing militia violence (with impunity), an economy in flames, "reeducation" program, cessation of free and fair elections (at least federally), and cities in prolonged martial law - the fact my 2016 expectations weren't pessimistic enough makes me wonder what horror I'm missing.
 
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