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2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

  • Thread starter Thread starter nycfan
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superrific said:
1. If the NYT has a partisan lean, it's definitely not for the Pubs. Maybe you're thinking of a rooting interest, ideology or sour grapes? All of which (save possibly the latter) are also implausible, but it defies belief that the paper that has pretty much defined centrist Democrat for generations has suddenly gone MAGA.
2. NYT Pitchbot is a meme. The NYT isn't. The NYTimes pitchbot is taking aim at a subset of the paper's articles. It's ignoring the articles that are much more objectively critical of Trump
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While no one would call them MAGA partisan, they boside the Hell out of things. Their own Nate Cohn has admitted questions in their polling strategy and basically leaves at as a "we will see how it all pans out" - largely that they have no clue (nor would they) into electoral makeup. Some of that is refreshing. But some of their stuff leaves them more open to some big errors.
 
aGDevil2k said:
If she wins, the NYT has lost all (remaining sliver of) credibility
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How? Because its polls are saying something different than what you want to hear?

Being wrong in polling isn't the same thing as being bad at polling. All pollsters are guessing about certain factors. That's why different polls have different leans. If the Times is consistently pro-Trump, it's not on purpose -- at least not unless you think Nate Cohn is in the process of destroying a great deal of professional credibility that he has spent years and years building. The Needle is really great technology. Plus, the polls are conducted by Siena, which also has no obvious reason to be biased.

Polling is like poker. Over a lot of cycles, the better pollsters will rise to the top -- but that doesn't mean they are going to get every specific example correct, any more than the best poker player is going to win every hand. If I play at a poker table with pros, I will very likely get rolled. But consider this situation: on the first hand, a player gets the nut full house and puts me all-in. I have a straight flush draw. And then on the river I hit it. I win, pro player is out. Pro player played it correctly, I would imagine. It's just that he modeled me as a rational player when I turned out not even to be that, and also got a bad beat.

[By the way, I've described the poker scene in Casino Royale, which was humorous and improbable but also required Bond to play like an idiot]

If you have a reason to think the Times is doing something wrong, then the criticism is fair game. But if it's just that the results aren't correct, that doesn't mean much.
 
aGDevil2k said:
While no one would call them MAGA partisan, they boside the Hell out of things. Their own Nate Cohn has admitted questions in their polling strategy and basically leaves at as a "we will see how it all pans out" - largely that they have no clue (nor would they) into electoral makeup. Some of that is refreshing. But some of their stuff leaves them more open to some big errors.
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Where did Cohn admit to that? Show me the link, please. I've not seen that. Unless you're referring to his column today, which I think you have not fairly characterized.
 
My view, for the very little it’s worth —

Now is about the time in the campaign where we can stop focusing on margins. Start looking at the top line numbers for Trump and Kamala with credible pollsters. Trump at 47% or less is great. Kamala at 51% or more is great. Trump at 48% and Kamala at 50% is scary, but still probably ok for Kamala. The last Economist has Kamala at 49 and Trump at 45. That’s ok. The last CBS has Kamala at 52 and Trump at 48. That’s excellent. We’re in good shape. No need to freak out unless we start seeing Trump tied or ahead of Kamala in high quality polls where he has 49 or 50. Just keep plugging along unless we start seeing those types of numbers.
 
Centerpiece said:
Are there such things as Maga Deadheads? Conservative Deadheads? Trumper Deadheads? Any hardcore Deadheads registered as Republican? Evangelical, Christian Nationalist Deadheads?

Didn’t think so….
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I know several.

Born-again Christo-Nationalist MAGA Deadheads.
 
lawtig02 said:
My view, for the very little it’s worth —

Now is about the time in the campaign where we can stop focusing on margins. Start looking at the top line numbers for Trump and Kamala with credible pollsters. Trump at 47% or less is great. Kamala at 51% or more is great. Trump at 48% and Kamala at 50% is scary, but still probably ok for Kamala. The last Economist has Kamala at 49 and Trump at 45. That’s ok. The last CBS has Kamala at 52 and Trump at 48. That’s excellent. We’re in good shape. No need to freak out unless we start seeing Trump tied or ahead of Kamala in high quality polls where he has 49 or 50. Just keep plugging along unless we start seeing those types of numbers
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I don't understand the logic. Looking at top line numbers and looking at margins are the same thing. Remember: not all likely voters vote. So if you have a poll with Trump and Kamala both at 47 -- well, maybe the other 6 just doesn't vote. Or some % of the Trump and Kamala cohorts don't vote. Even if you have a perfectly accurate poll on Monday before the election showing Trump at 46, it doesn't mean he can't get a majority of actual votes cast.
 
lawtig02 said:
My view, for the very little it’s worth —

Now is about the time in the campaign where we can stop focusing on margins. Start looking at the top line numbers for Trump and Kamala with credible pollsters. Trump at 47% or less is great. Kamala at 51% or more is great. Trump at 48% and Kamala at 50% is scary, but still probably ok for Kamala. The last Economist has Kamala at 49 and Trump at 45. That’s ok. The last CBS has Kamala at 52 and Trump at 48. That’s excellent. We’re in good shape. No need to freak out unless we start seeing Trump tied or ahead of Kamala in high quality polls where he has 49 or 50. Just keep plugging along unless we start seeing those types of numbers.
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“Just keep plugging along” so we DON’T see those #s
 
superrific said:
[By the way, I've described the poker scene in Casino Royale, which was humorous and improbable but also required Bond to play like an idiot]
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I'm certainly a novice poker player at best but I didn't think Bond played badly on that (admittedly and as you correctly pointed out) highly improbable hand..
 
Paine said:
There are actually quite a few, sadly. A lot of hippies became right-wing libertarian types.

www.huffpost.com

Why Do Conservatives Love The Grateful Dead? We Ask Tucker Carlson.

Why Do Conservatives Love The Grateful Dead? We Ask Tucker Carlson.
www.huffpost.com www.huffpost.com

www.billboard.com

Ann Coulter: I’m A Grateful Dead Fan For Life (Exclusive)

Ann Coulter writes about why she's a devoted Grateful Dead fan.
www.billboard.com www.billboard.com
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Yeah. I know. It’s amazing how many long haired, pot smoking, motor cycle riding, guitar playing hippies from the early 70’s who went Pub, or Libertarian as you say. I’m thinking more Libertarian than Maga though. But Libertarians vote trump too.

I recall those days, listening to CSNY, Allman Bros. The Dead, etc. smoking my dope with New Riders of the Purple Sage, learning how to strum a 6-string, playing bluegrass while smoking grass with the Nitty Gritty Dirt Band; Walking barefoot around a college campus avoiding 8am classes.

I recall hanging out with like-minded folk back then… fast forward to 2008 and I then realize how some of those fuckers are/were actually racists. It just didn’t show outwardly until a black man was in the White House. Fast forward to 2016 and boom. Facebook blows up with all these old hippies voting for trump.

Disheartening for me, as those were my pot smoking, beer drinking guitar playing buddies back then. Had to do the old Facebook “unfriend, unfollow and block”
 
hedge said:
I'm certainly a novice poker player at best but I didn't think Bond played badly on that (admittedly and as you correctly pointed out) highly improbable hand..
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In fairness, he played it exactly right knowing he had the screenwriter on his side
 
Definitely know some conservative Deadheads, but they're all old school repubs. Doctors and lawyers and such. I've never believed the Ann Coulter/Tucker Carlson types who claimed to be Deadheads, always figured they were just trolling in order to irk folks and stir up comments and clicks. I'm sure there are bound to be some MAGA Deadheads out there but I've not met them. Randman used to be a Deadhead but as soon as he flipped he immediately started proselytizing against the Dead, whose whole scene and ethos he rightly understood to be in stark opposition to he new worldview...
 
For pub deadheads trying to reconcile their new found political leanings with Jerry and the gang has to be some pretzel logic. I guess somethings got to give.
 
Completely agree. I do not trust polls... and the fact that its so close in Wisconsin is concerning. He flips just one of those states and we're in trouble.
 
Are there any Maga wearing tie dyed dead t shirts to trump rallies? No. There may be some FORMER deadheads attending in the red Maga hats, but they ain’t wearing tie dye, and smoking a doobie on the way to the show.
 
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