2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

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CFordUNC said:
Democrats were already enormous underdogs to retain the Senate at the beginning of this whole election cycle because of how unfavorable the map was this cycle. The fact that Ted Cruz and Rick Scott may even have to sweat bullets- even though they will still likely win their respective races- is a testament to how deeply unpopular the Republican Party is even in some red states.

The realistic goal for the Democrats- one that appears to be very much attainable, if not more probable than not at present- is to retake the House and retain the White House and keep the Senate at a razor thin Republican margin such that something like, say, a Susan Collins being offered a position in the Harris administration could create a 50/50 tie in the Senate with Tim Walz being able to cast tie-breaking votes if necessary.
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I do think Democrats retake the House - some GOP talking heads have all but admitted as much - and I don't think the Senate is necessarily lost. Even if Tester loses the GOP still has to gain another Senate seat to win outright control, and right now polls show all of the other vulnerable Democrats winning, most of them by comfortable margins (3 or more points) right now.
 
Mulberry Heel said:
I do think Democrats retake the House - some GOP talking heads have all but admitted as much - and I don't think the Senate is necessarily lost. Even if Tester loses the GOP still has to gain another Senate seat to win outright control, and right now polls show all of the other vulnerable Democrats winning, most of them by comfortable margins (3 or more points) right now.
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If Tester loses, the Republicans will control the Senate even w/ a President Harris (barring any surprises in Nebraska, Florida, or Texas.)

Manchin’s seat is also flipping, I think you didn’t count that one.
 

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Paine said:
If Tester loses, the Republicans will control the Senate even w/ a President Harris (barring any surprises in Nebraska, Florida, or Texas.)

Manchin’s seat is also flipping, I think you didn’t count that one.
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Yep, you're right. Well, damn. At least I do think the Dems retake the House, but if the GOP does get the Senate they'll drag their feet on judicial appointments for as long as possible. And if there's a Supreme Court opening you can likely forget it.
 
aGDevil2k said:
Terrible polls?

This guy is another case of everyone trying to be an expert
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I don't know about terrible polls, but something is going on. 538 has moved her from 64% chance of winning to 55% since Sept 18. Her post-debate momentum is gone.
 
I'm increasingly skeptical of polls in general, but I do think something has changed in the campaign recently. When Biden dropped out and Kamala became the nominee she dominated the news cycle for well over a month. And the favorable reaction to her choice of Walz as her running mate also allowed the Democratic ticket to dominate the news cycle, and Trump receded into the background and seemed strangely (for him) listless and tired for several weeks. However, the whole Springfield Haitian immigrants brouhaha restored Trump and Vance to the spotlight, and I've noticed that Harris and Walz seem to have receded into the media background in the past few weeks. This is one reason Trump does better than expected in elections, imo. He hogs the media spotlight and prevents his opponent from getting any air. Even when he's just saying crazy shit and is immersed in controversy all the attention is on him and not his opponent. Hopefully Harris and Walz can find a way to get back in the news a bit.
 
BillOfRights said:
But several polls over 6 days and this happens:

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On Sept 18, Harris had a 64% chance and trump 36%.
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You're reading something that's not there. It's just noise, really. There will be fluctuations day to day. One set of good polls tomorrow and it will be back up to 64%.
 
superrific said:
You're reading something that's not there. It's just noise, really. There will be fluctuations day to day. One set of good polls tomorrow and it will be back up to 64%.
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It took several days of good polls post-debate to get to 64. It came down over 6 days.
1. One day of good polls won't get her back to 64.
2. Several polls are moving together in the wrong direction.

Her campaign needs to determine why and fix it. (I'm fine if I don't know what her team did until after the election. No need to inform everyone of your strategy.)
 
BillOfRights said:
Averaging scientific polls and running thousands of simulations?
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I think he's saying the polls aren't. Two polls likely influenced things... Quinnipiac and CNN. But then there were two very strong ones the last day or two that made those look odd. I do not believe at all that she could lose the popular vote .. And that's what Q showed

There may be no rhyme or reason. I don't know that you can conclude she needs to "fix" something.

But I'm glad that people aren't going to just rest and think it's a slam dunk
 
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