2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

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This strategy is used to some extent by both sides but does seem prevalent on the Trump side at the moment. In the past, really favorable internal polling has a way of getting “leaked”.
 
uncjhodges said:
Is Redfield Wilton really red leaning?
It’s interesting if so that these red leaning pollsters are rarely even showing trump leads in important swing states. His behavior indicates his internal polling may be worse
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It may be more their results tilt redder than many “neutral” pollsters, rather than a purely ideological red wave type pollster, but they don’t have a great pollster rating.
 
uncjhodges said:
Is Redfield Wilton really red leaning?
It’s interesting if so that these red leaning pollsters are rarely even showing trump leads in important swing states. His behavior indicates his internal polling may be worse
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Yes, they are.

Survey USA is blue leaning, if I recall
 
nycfan said:


This strategy is used to some extent by both sides but does seem prevalent on the Trump side at the moment. In the past, really favorable internal polling has a way of getting “leaked”.
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I’m also seeing a ton of BS messages from MAGA influencers making vague allegations of foreign interference to Kamala’s benefit. There’s nothing to any of it, but they’re clearly trying to amplify the “Dems are Cheating” narrative early and often this year.
 
lawtig02 said:
I’m also seeing a ton of BS messages from MAGA influencers making vague allegations of foreign interference to Kamala’s benefit. There’s nothing to any of it, but they’re clearly trying to amplify the “Dems are Cheating” narrative early and often this year.
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There was the Iranian hack of Trump campaign emails, but that seemed to move on when there's no evidence that anyone with the Biden or Harris campaigns actually took the documents.

But, yeah, we are certainly up for "The Election Is Rigged, Part 3" from Trump & friends in this election.
 
Harvard Kennedy School poll of national Likely Voters aged 18-30

Overall
Harris 64 - 32 Trump (was Biden 56 - 37 Trump)

Favorability (+/-)
Harris: 47/42
Walz: 36/22
Biden: 36/55
Trump: 31/61
Vance: 18/46

Qualities (Harris/Trump)
Empathetic: 49/15
Competent: 46/27
Relatable: 42/18
Honest: 40/18
Strong: 40/33
Patriotic: 34/36
Funny: 29/32
 
quakerdevil said:
Harvard Kennedy School poll of national Likely Voters aged 18-30

Overall
Harris 64 - 32 Trump (was Biden 56 - 37 Trump)

Favorability (+/-)
Harris: 47/42
Walz: 36/22
Biden: 36/55
Trump: 31/61
Vance: 18/46

Qualities (Harris/Trump)
Empathetic: 49/15
Competent: 46/27
Relatable: 42/18
Honest: 40/18
Strong: 40/33
Patriotic: 34/36
Funny: 29/32
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Great numbers for Harris, the only quibble I have is that anyone would say that Drumpf is more patriotic than Kamala. Mfer only loves this country when he's in charge of it.
 
SnoopRob said:
There was the Iranian hack of Trump campaign emails, but that seemed to move on when there's no evidence that anyone with the Biden or Harris campaigns actually took the documents.

But, yeah, we are certainly up for "The Election Is Rigged, Part 3" from Trump & friends in this election.
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That is one Team Trump wants to be careful about. Similarly hacked Clinton emails were widely published and analyzed by the mainstream media in an absolute feeding frenzy for even the most mundane communications, making tremendous fodder for HRC’s opponents. These Trump emails have not been published and I assume Trump (who famously refuses to use email himself) wants to keep it that way. It is easy to make political sausage making look nefarious (even more nefarious than it actually is).
 
farce© said:
I also take issue with the belief that Trump is funny. He does not possess a sense of humor and he is never intentionally funny. We laugh at him, not with him.
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A lot of his fans laugh with him, though.
 
nycfan said:
A lot of his fans laugh with him, though.
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Yes, to a degree. I also believe a degree of it is the spasm of relief his parishioners get from ttump saying the quiet thing out loud. Holding in your bigoted beliefs amidst public settings can be tiresome; then ttump comes along and calls immigrants trash, makes fun of people's disabilities, tells women only a man can protect them, etc. etc.
 
Paine said:
How do a majority of people of any age think that the guy who tried to overthrow the legitimately elected government is more patriotic than my left testicle, let alone a woman who has spent her career in public service?
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Well, personally, I've never seen your left testicle stand for the national anthem or salute the flag, much less hug the flag.

I think the real question here is, does your left testicle really love America?
 
SnoopRob said:
Well, personally, I've never seen your left testicle stand for the national anthem or salute the flag, much less hug the flag.

I think the real question here is, does your left testicle really love America?
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I’ve asked that they include an option in the next poll so we can solve this question once and for all
 
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HeelingAg said:
Yes, to a degree. I also believe a degree of it is the spasm of relief his parishioners get from ttump saying the quiet thing out loud. Holding in your bigoted beliefs amidst public settings can be tiresome; then ttump comes along and calls immigrants trash, makes fun of people's disabilities, tells women only a man can protect them, etc. etc.
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I think it goes a step further than just relief. I think those of us who aren't MAGA either forget or don't understand how much certain parts of our society believe there is actual comedy in making fun of others as a means of expressing superiority over them.

I think at some level, we all get it. Everyone likes seeing the jerk/boss/celebrity brought down a peg through humor. Especially if that humor pokes directly at their foibles related to their advanced status. It is, often, genuinely funny as long as the joke teller is punching up.

I grew up in semi-rural NC and now live here after spending 15+ years other places. My home county is MAGA country, as it went nearly 75% for Trump in both 2016 and 2020. And I can tell you there is still a significant number of folks who find genuine comedy in making fun of those beneath them on society's ladder. You make fun of the speach patterns of those who have a different accent than you (or, even worse, have some sort of disability), you make fun of the clothes of people who are poorer than you and/or are of different cultures than you, you make fun of the foods people eat when they eat things that you don't like (or don't consider food), you make fun of the behaviors or markers of those in groups you think are abnormal or should be outcasts. It's a pretty deeply entrenched view of the world that folks who are different than you and, especially those who are "lower" than you, are ripe for being mocked and made the butt of a joke.

It took me a few years of my young adulthood to unlearn that way of viewing the world, but I can attest that it still exists among many in the community where I live. And, for those folks, I don't doubt that they find Trump genuinely funny because they find humor in making fun of the very people of whom Trump makes fun.
 
Harvard Youth Poll

18-29 year-old likely voters (two-way match-up)

Harris 64%
Trump 32%

18-29 year-old likely voters (women)

Harris 70%
Trump 23%


49th Edition - Fall 2024

The Institute of Politics (IOP) at the Harvard Kennedy School was established in 1966 as a living memorial to President John F. Kennedy.
iop.harvard.edu iop.harvard.edu

"
A national poll released today by the Institute of Politics (IOP) at the Harvard Kennedy School indicates that among 18-to-29-year-olds nationwide, Vice President Kamala Harris holds a commanding 31-point lead over former President Donald Trump among likely voters in a multi-candidate matchup. The 48th Harvard Youth Poll shows Harris leading Trump 64% to 32% among likely voters in a two-way hypothetical scenario with her advantage expanding as young people become more engaged in the electoral process.

The poll also finds:

  • A significant enthusiasm gap between young Democrats and Republicans, with 74% of young Democrats saying they will "definitely" vote, compared to 60% of young Republicans.
  • A widening gender gap, nearly doubling from 17 points in the Spring poll to 30 points now, with Harris leading 70% to 23% among likely female voters.
  • Harris outperforming Trump on key personal qualities and issues, with substantial leads in empathy (+33), relatability (+24), honesty (+22), climate change (+32), abortion (+31), health care (+26), and gun violence prevention (+25) among all young adults.
  • Harris's job approval as Vice President has significantly improved, increasing from 32% in the Spring poll to 44% now.
  • Strong support for progressive policies among young Americans, with 74% favoring capping prescription drug prices and 59% supporting a nationwide law to legalize abortion.
  • Overwhelming rejection of Project 2025 among young Americans, with only 6% viewing it favorably compared to 48% unfavorably. Even among Republicans, we find 14% viewing it favorably and 23% unfavorably.
  • The impact of social media, with 53% of young adults encountering memes about Harris online in the last month, 34% of whom say it positively influenced their opinion. Conversely, 56% have seen memes about Trump, with 26% reporting a negative impact on their perception. ..."
 
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