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2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

  • Thread starter Thread starter nycfan
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nycfan said:
Harvard Youth Poll

18-29 year-old likely voters (two-way match-up)

Harris 64%
Trump 32%

18-29 year-old likely voters (women)

Harris 70%
Trump 23%


50th Edition - Spring 2025

The Institute of Politics (IOP) at the Harvard Kennedy School was established in 1966 as a living memorial to President John F. Kennedy.
iop.harvard.edu iop.harvard.edu

"
A national poll released today by the Institute of Politics (IOP) at the Harvard Kennedy School indicates that among 18-to-29-year-olds nationwide, Vice President Kamala Harris holds a commanding 31-point lead over former President Donald Trump among likely voters in a multi-candidate matchup. The 48th Harvard Youth Poll shows Harris leading Trump 64% to 32% among likely voters in a two-way hypothetical scenario with her advantage expanding as young people become more engaged in the electoral process.

The poll also finds:

  • A significant enthusiasm gap between young Democrats and Republicans, with 74% of young Democrats saying they will "definitely" vote, compared to 60% of young Republicans.
  • A widening gender gap, nearly doubling from 17 points in the Spring poll to 30 points now, with Harris leading 70% to 23% among likely female voters.
  • Harris outperforming Trump on key personal qualities and issues, with substantial leads in empathy (+33), relatability (+24), honesty (+22), climate change (+32), abortion (+31), health care (+26), and gun violence prevention (+25) among all young adults.
  • Harris's job approval as Vice President has significantly improved, increasing from 32% in the Spring poll to 44% now.
  • Strong support for progressive policies among young Americans, with 74% favoring capping prescription drug prices and 59% supporting a nationwide law to legalize abortion.
  • Overwhelming rejection of Project 2025 among young Americans, with only 6% viewing it favorably compared to 48% unfavorably. Even among Republicans, we find 14% viewing it favorably and 23% unfavorably.
  • The impact of social media, with 53% of young adults encountering memes about Harris online in the last month, 34% of whom say it positively influenced their opinion. Conversely, 56% have seen memes about Trump, with 26% reporting a negative impact on their perception. ..."
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The point of all this was to promote a Trump interview on [Logan] Paul’s podcast and YouTube show.

It was all part of Trump and JD Vance’s months-long tour of podcasters and influencers — almost all of them men, many of them young.

The conversations are often friendly and chatty. In multiple interviews, Trump has shot the breeze with hosts about the UFC and boxing.
 
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nycfan said:
www.yahoo.com

Half of voters plan to cast ballots early, with a huge partisan split

Half of registered voters plan to vote early this fall, new figures from the September NBC News poll show, with Democrats continuing to run up the score among early voters and Republicans getting stronger backing from those who plan to vote in person on Election Day.
www.yahoo.com www.yahoo.com

Half of voters plan to cast ballots early, with a huge partisan split​


"Fifty-one percent of voters say they'll vote early, either by mail or in person, with Vice President Kamala Harris leading former President Donald Trump 61%-35% (a 26-point margin) among those [early] voters.

By comparison, Trump leads by 20 points, 57%-37%, with the group of voters who plan to vote on Election Day, which accounts for 45% of the electorate in the poll. It's a smaller lead among a slightly smaller share of the electorate than Harris has over those early voters.

"Either the margin has to close among [those] voting early, or Republican margins on Election Day have to be bigger than this to win," said Bill McInturff, the Republican pollster who conducted the NBC News poll with Jeff Horwitt of Hart Research Associates. ..."
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If my math is mathing.....

If those numbers held, the election would not be close.
 
aGDevil2k said:
If my math is mathing.....

If those numbers held, the election would not be close.
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It would be a roughly 5-6% Kamala victory, which is in line with some polling. I bet that NBC news poll showed Kamala up by 4 or more.

You can solve an algebra problem in thousands of different ways. You can solve 2X = 14 by dividing by 123 or adding y+z to both sides or anything you want. The answer, at the end of the day, is always X=7.
 
Paine said:
How do a majority of people of any age think that the guy who tried to overthrow the legitimately elected government is more patriotic than my left testicle, let alone a woman who has spent her career in public service?
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Because to those people, patriotism is actually nationalism and nativism.
 
JCTarheel82 said:
Because to those people, patriotism is actually nationalism and nativism.
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It's a little more than that. All three are part and parcel of being the Elect of God. Predestination is an insidious and pernicious doctrine. Once it's established that there are people chosen in advance, sometimes before birth, to be saved, there's a whole new debate about what the signs are. That Protestants are the strongest believers, ( a bit of a generalization but there's 200+ Christian denominations in the US, not counting cults, sects and independents and 45,000 worldwide so conciseness is impossible) in this doctrine. Guess that's what you get when a German anti Semite monk and a French lawyer are the among the leading spiritual fathers of the Reformation.

This sort of politics is all about them still being elect in their hearts and souls where it really matters. They don't care what he says. It's the hope they give him. He's just a tool.

Well, they're right but not the way they mean it.
 
rodoheel said:
Tester down 4? Ouch.
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The clock is striking midnight for Tester this year. He won his seat in a blue wave; held on narrowly in 12; won again in a blue wave in 18; and I don't think he will hold on this year.

It used to be fairly common for the mountain/plains states to have some Dem senators. Bob Kerrey, Ben Nelson, Max Baucus, Tester, Daschle, Heitkamp, and so on. Now I think Tester is the last of his kind and when he falls, you can ride the Missouri river from start to finish and not meet a single Dem Senator (I think).
 
superrific said:
The clock is striking midnight for Tester this year. He won his seat in a blue wave; held on narrowly in 12; won again in a blue wave in 18; and I don't think he will hold on this year.

It used to be fairly common for the mountain/plains states to have some Dem senators. Bob Kerrey, Ben Nelson, Max Baucus, Tester, Daschle, Heitkamp, and so on. Now I think Tester is the last of his kind and when he falls, you can ride the Missouri river from start to finish and not meet a single Dem Senator (I think).
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What if the Illinois senator is on a boat near St. Louis?
 
Democrats were already enormous underdogs to retain the Senate at the beginning of this whole election cycle because of how unfavorable the map was this cycle. The fact that Ted Cruz and Rick Scott may even have to sweat bullets- even though they will still likely win their respective races- is a testament to how deeply unpopular the Republican Party is even in some red states.

The realistic goal for the Democrats- one that appears to be very much attainable, if not more probable than not at present- is to retake the House and retain the White House and keep the Senate at a razor thin Republican margin such that something like, say, a Susan Collins being offered a position in the Harris administration could create a 50/50 tie in the Senate with Tim Walz being able to cast tie-breaking votes if necessary.
 
CFordUNC said:
Democrats were already enormous underdogs to retain the Senate at the beginning of this whole election cycle because of how unfavorable the map was this cycle. The fact that Ted Cruz and Rick Scott may even have to sweat bullets- even though they will still likely win their respective races- is a testament to how deeply unpopular the Republican Party is even in some red states.

The realistic goal for the Democrats- one that appears to be very much attainable, if not more probable than not at present- is to retake the House and retain the White House and keep the Senate at a razor thin Republican margin such that something like, say, a Susan Collins being offered a position in the Harris administration could create a 50/50 tie in the Senate with Tim Walz being able to cast tie-breaking votes if necessary.
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This is assuming Collins wants responsibility, isn’t fearful of the mass of guaranteed death threats, and that Maine has a gov that would assuredly appoint a Dem.
 
superrific said:
you can ride the Missouri river from start to finish and not meet a single Dem Senator (I think).
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Well I met her accidentally in St. Paul, Minnesota
And it tore me up every time I heard her drawl that Southern drawl
Then I heard my dream went back downstream, cavortin' in Davenport
And I followed you, big river, when you called

(Different river but just go with it)..
 
CFordUNC said:
Democrats were already enormous underdogs to retain the Senate at the beginning of this whole election cycle because of how unfavorable the map was this cycle. The fact that Ted Cruz and Rick Scott may even have to sweat bullets- even though they will still likely win their respective races- is a testament to how deeply unpopular the Republican Party is even in some red states.

The realistic goal for the Democrats- one that appears to be very much attainable, if not more probable than not at present- is to retake the House and retain the White House and keep the Senate at a razor thin Republican margin such that something like, say, a Susan Collins being offered a position in the Harris administration could create a 50/50 tie in the Senate with Tim Walz being able to cast tie-breaking votes if necessary.
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I do think Democrats retake the House - some GOP talking heads have all but admitted as much - and I don't think the Senate is necessarily lost. Even if Tester loses the GOP still has to gain another Senate seat to win outright control, and right now polls show all of the other vulnerable Democrats winning, most of them by comfortable margins (3 or more points) right now.
 
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