2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

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nycfan said:
Gift Link —> A Florida Poll That Should Change the Way You Look at the Election


A Florida Poll That Should Change the Way You Look at the Election​


A big Trump lead in the state paradoxically adds to evidence of a smaller Electoral College edge for him. And a choice by pollsters may cause them to miss state shifts.

“…
Our first Texas poll of the cycle also looks “normal.” Donald J. Trump leads by six points, 50 percent to 44 percent, another tally that’s right in line with the polling average and close to the 2020 result.

And then there’s Florida.

Our first poll of the state this cycle finds Mr. Trump ahead by a staggering 13 points, 55 percent to 41 percent (again, rounded figures). This looks nothing like the other polls of the state. Heading into today, Mr. Trump led Florida in the Times average of all polls by just four points. None of the 11 polls fielded in September or October put him ahead by more than six points.

…
What’s telling, though, is that the basic political pattern from the midterms still seems evident in the polling today. If the poll is right, Florida really has gone on a different path from Pennsylvania and Michigan. And since the paths diverged several years ago, the most straightforward explanation is that the fights over the pandemic, “woke,” abortion rights, crime, Mr. Trump’s effort to overturn the election and so on left a lasting mark on the electoral map.

Importantly, the pattern is consistent with the idea that Mr. Trump’s edge in the Electoral College has shrunk somewhat since 2020.

A 10-point gain for Mr. Trump in Florida and New York (where Siena College also showsenduring Republican strength, though the state remains safely Democratic) would be enough to shave about a point off Vice President Harris’s lead in the popular vote.

… the Florida poll reveals an entirely separate problem: What happens if the makeup of the electorate changes?

Over the last four years, Florida’s party registration has shifted significantly, going from D+ 0.7 to R+ 7.5. According to L2, a nonpartisan political data vendor, people who moved to Florida since January 2021 have registered as Republicans by a margin of more than two to one, 49 percent to 22 percent. The broader group of new registrants, which includes young people who probably didn’t vote in the last election, registered Republican by a smaller but still significant margin, 39 percent to 22 percent.

The bottom line: This is probably not a Trump +3 electorate anymore, even if the recall vote measure itself was accurate. That doesn’t mean the Times/Siena poll is “right” — it’s an inherently imprecise measurement — but it does make it harder to discount it based on the other polls.

In the past, almost every poll would have had a chance to capture this kind of shift. In fact, that’s the whole point of polling. Now, many polls are designed to ensure they don’t show it at all. …”
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They used a lot of words to say

"Polls are broken. We have no idea how to fix them."
 
aGDevil2k said:
Did you see their Florida results?? 😂😂😂

Had her 13 points down. I mean I know Florida is light red now but come on. 13 points?
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If anyone actually believes that Trump has a 13-point lead in Florida then I have a bridge in Brooklyn to sell them. There's no way that Trump just suddenly gained 5 to 10 points in the polls there. Just more evidence that the polling on this election is all over the place and thus deep skepticism is justified. Trump will likely win Florida, but he's not going to win it by 13 points, or even close to that amount. In 2016 he won it by 1.3% and in 2020 by 3.4%.
 
dukeman92 said:
One poll she's expanding her lead and in another she's losing it. Polls are just unreliable.
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I think that the big difference in a lot of polls these days (excluding the red polls that are intentionally biased) is that modeling turnout has gotten much, much tougher than it used to be.

It's hard to get people to respond, but if you try hard enough you can weight by demographics to counter that issue. But uncertainty in turnout means that different polls will create different models and my hunch is that the different turnout models/assumptions are to blame for the majority of the differences we see in (unbiased) polling.
 
In the current era of extremely high voter turnout, I think they ought to stick with registered voter results (or at least provide likely voter and registered voter results). The LV analysis was pretty critical when only about half the registered voters would show up and there were clear trends who would vote and who would not. If you have 75% or more of registered voters voting, the adjustments get a lot dicier and can be moved by late-developing news cycles.
 
People starting to push-back on wild swings and really much attention to polymarket crypto betting on the election ...

 
nycfan said:
Gift Link —> A Florida Poll That Should Change the Way You Look at the Election


A Florida Poll That Should Change the Way You Look at the Election​


A big Trump lead in the state paradoxically adds to evidence of a smaller Electoral College edge for him. And a choice by pollsters may cause them to miss state shifts.

“…
Our first Texas poll of the cycle also looks “normal.” Donald J. Trump leads by six points, 50 percent to 44 percent, another tally that’s right in line with the polling average and close to the 2020 result.

And then there’s Florida.

Our first poll of the state this cycle finds Mr. Trump ahead by a staggering 13 points, 55 percent to 41 percent (again, rounded figures). This looks nothing like the other polls of the state. Heading into today, Mr. Trump led Florida in the Times average of all polls by just four points. None of the 11 polls fielded in September or October put him ahead by more than six points.

…
What’s telling, though, is that the basic political pattern from the midterms still seems evident in the polling today. If the poll is right, Florida really has gone on a different path from Pennsylvania and Michigan. And since the paths diverged several years ago, the most straightforward explanation is that the fights over the pandemic, “woke,” abortion rights, crime, Mr. Trump’s effort to overturn the election and so on left a lasting mark on the electoral map.

Importantly, the pattern is consistent with the idea that Mr. Trump’s edge in the Electoral College has shrunk somewhat since 2020.

A 10-point gain for Mr. Trump in Florida and New York (where Siena College also showsenduring Republican strength, though the state remains safely Democratic) would be enough to shave about a point off Vice President Harris’s lead in the popular vote.

… the Florida poll reveals an entirely separate problem: What happens if the makeup of the electorate changes?

Over the last four years, Florida’s party registration has shifted significantly, going from D+ 0.7 to R+ 7.5. According to L2, a nonpartisan political data vendor, people who moved to Florida since January 2021 have registered as Republicans by a margin of more than two to one, 49 percent to 22 percent. The broader group of new registrants, which includes young people who probably didn’t vote in the last election, registered Republican by a smaller but still significant margin, 39 percent to 22 percent.

The bottom line: This is probably not a Trump +3 electorate anymore, even if the recall vote measure itself was accurate. That doesn’t mean the Times/Siena poll is “right” — it’s an inherently imprecise measurement — but it does make it harder to discount it based on the other polls.

In the past, almost every poll would have had a chance to capture this kind of shift. In fact, that’s the whole point of polling. Now, many polls are designed to ensure they don’t show it at all. …”
Click to expand...
Tl;dr all the crazies have moved to FL
 
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