2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden
- Thread starter nycfan
- Start date
- Replies: 6K
- Views: 144K
- Politics
1moretimeagain
Esteemed Member
- Messages
- 648
One house on a road I drive down regularly has a Trump sign and also a “Amybody But Biden” sign. I’m always tempted to stop and tell him the good news.
Mulberry Heel
Honored Member
- Messages
- 921
I remember back in the 80s and even 90s there were far fewer polling sites than today. I think one big problem with modern polling is that there's so damn many polls now, and it's sometimes difficult to separate the credible ones from the less-legit ones. IMO, some polling organizations now are just as partisan as news organizations (say, Rasmussen), and so their polling results are dubious at best because they're deliberately skewed to the right or left. It's almost like sensory overload at this point. I'm beginning to think that early voting results may be a better indicator of where we're heading in this election than polling averages.
- Messages
- 607
From your previous posts, it sounds like you’re in Charlotte. Is that the house in the Belmont neighborhood, on Hawthorne near Belvedere? I’ve seen that “Anybody But Biden” sign there for about the past 4 years.
rodoheel
Iconic Member
- Messages
- 1,068
The only thing I can think to explain such a huge number of predicted Gallego/Trump voters is male Hispanic voters.
1moretimeagain
Esteemed Member
- Messages
- 648
Yes, that’s the one.
aGDevil2k
Iconic Member
- Messages
- 2,459
Polls dont know what the turnout may be like. The grassroots and small donations (that really favored Trump 8 years ago) are with her now.
Also, R pollsters are flooding things to make him seem in good shape. Why? When they lose they can cry foul. It's their strategy.
aGDevil2k
Iconic Member
- Messages
- 2,459
Those are really good Harris polls
aGDevil2k
Iconic Member
- Messages
- 2,459
Cilizza is still around??????
Not really.
- Messages
- 801
Don’t act like you haven’t missed a listicle blogger being propped up as an expert on every cnn show.
aGDevil2k
Iconic Member
- Messages
- 2,459
I stopped watching CNN when they tried to go right under the former guy.
Then when they freaking neutered NYE
Drunk Don Lemon was amazing
aGDevil2k
Iconic Member
- Messages
- 2,459
Did you see their Florida results??
Had her 13 points down. I mean I know Florida is light red now but come on. 13 points?
- Messages
- 8,470
Gift Link —> A Florida Poll That Should Change the Way You Look at the Election
A big Trump lead in the state paradoxically adds to evidence of a smaller Electoral College edge for him. And a choice by pollsters may cause them to miss state shifts.
“…
Our first Texas poll of the cycle also looks “normal.” Donald J. Trump leads by six points, 50 percent to 44 percent, another tally that’s right in line with the polling average and close to the 2020 result.
And then there’s Florida.
Our first poll of the state this cycle finds Mr. Trump ahead by a staggering 13 points, 55 percent to 41 percent (again, rounded figures). This looks nothing like the other polls of the state. Heading into today, Mr. Trump led Florida in the Times average of all polls by just four points. None of the 11 polls fielded in September or October put him ahead by more than six points.
…
What’s telling, though, is that the basic political pattern from the midterms still seems evident in the polling today. If the poll is right, Florida really has gone on a different path from Pennsylvania and Michigan. And since the paths diverged several years ago, the most straightforward explanation is that the fights over the pandemic, “woke,” abortion rights, crime, Mr. Trump’s effort to overturn the election and so on left a lasting mark on the electoral map.
Importantly, the pattern is consistent with the idea that Mr. Trump’s edge in the Electoral College has shrunk somewhat since 2020.
A 10-point gain for Mr. Trump in Florida and New York (where Siena College also showsenduring Republican strength, though the state remains safely Democratic) would be enough to shave about a point off Vice President Harris’s lead in the popular vote.
… the Florida poll reveals an entirely separate problem: What happens if the makeup of the electorate changes?
Over the last four years, Florida’s party registration has shifted significantly, going from D+ 0.7 to R+ 7.5. According to L2, a nonpartisan political data vendor, people who moved to Florida since January 2021 have registered as Republicans by a margin of more than two to one, 49 percent to 22 percent. The broader group of new registrants, which includes young people who probably didn’t vote in the last election, registered Republican by a smaller but still significant margin, 39 percent to 22 percent.
The bottom line: This is probably not a Trump +3 electorate anymore, even if the recall vote measure itself was accurate. That doesn’t mean the Times/Siena poll is “right” — it’s an inherently imprecise measurement — but it does make it harder to discount it based on the other polls.
In the past, almost every poll would have had a chance to capture this kind of shift. In fact, that’s the whole point of polling. Now, many polls are designed to ensure they don’t show it at all. …”
A Florida Poll That Should Change the Way You Look at the Election
A big Trump lead in the state paradoxically adds to evidence of a smaller Electoral College edge for him. And a choice by pollsters may cause them to miss state shifts.
“…
Our first Texas poll of the cycle also looks “normal.” Donald J. Trump leads by six points, 50 percent to 44 percent, another tally that’s right in line with the polling average and close to the 2020 result.
And then there’s Florida.
Our first poll of the state this cycle finds Mr. Trump ahead by a staggering 13 points, 55 percent to 41 percent (again, rounded figures). This looks nothing like the other polls of the state. Heading into today, Mr. Trump led Florida in the Times average of all polls by just four points. None of the 11 polls fielded in September or October put him ahead by more than six points.
…
What’s telling, though, is that the basic political pattern from the midterms still seems evident in the polling today. If the poll is right, Florida really has gone on a different path from Pennsylvania and Michigan. And since the paths diverged several years ago, the most straightforward explanation is that the fights over the pandemic, “woke,” abortion rights, crime, Mr. Trump’s effort to overturn the election and so on left a lasting mark on the electoral map.
Importantly, the pattern is consistent with the idea that Mr. Trump’s edge in the Electoral College has shrunk somewhat since 2020.
A 10-point gain for Mr. Trump in Florida and New York (where Siena College also showsenduring Republican strength, though the state remains safely Democratic) would be enough to shave about a point off Vice President Harris’s lead in the popular vote.
… the Florida poll reveals an entirely separate problem: What happens if the makeup of the electorate changes?
Over the last four years, Florida’s party registration has shifted significantly, going from D+ 0.7 to R+ 7.5. According to L2, a nonpartisan political data vendor, people who moved to Florida since January 2021 have registered as Republicans by a margin of more than two to one, 49 percent to 22 percent. The broader group of new registrants, which includes young people who probably didn’t vote in the last election, registered Republican by a smaller but still significant margin, 39 percent to 22 percent.
The bottom line: This is probably not a Trump +3 electorate anymore, even if the recall vote measure itself was accurate. That doesn’t mean the Times/Siena poll is “right” — it’s an inherently imprecise measurement — but it does make it harder to discount it based on the other polls.
In the past, almost every poll would have had a chance to capture this kind of shift. In fact, that’s the whole point of polling. Now, many polls are designed to ensure they don’t show it at all. …”
- Messages
- 8,470
FYI, the NYT poll was in the field Sept 29-Oct 6.
- Messages
- 8,470
“… Ms. Harris has since shored up her support among older voters and has begun making inroads among Republicans: 9 percent said they planned to support her, up slightly from 5 percent last month. She also appears to have closed the gap on the question of change, a critical factor in an election where voters have repeatedly told pollsters they believe the nation is heading in the wrong direction. …”
www.nytimes.com
Another indicator that people really dislike Biden, so however loyal she is, Kamala needs separation from Biden. And she has some on whether she would help you personally or help “someone like you”
Poll Finds Harris Rising as She Challenges Trump on Change
A national Times/Siena poll found Kamala Harris with a slim lead over Donald J. Trump. Voters were more likely to see her, not Mr. Trump, as a break from the status quo.
Another indicator that people really dislike Biden, so however loyal she is, Kamala needs separation from Biden. And she has some on whether she would help you personally or help “someone like you”