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But, but, but I thought no one had done more for the Jews in the history of Judaism than Trump.
2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden
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But, but, but I thought no one had done more for the Jews in the history of Judaism than Trump.
As a group, Jews are highly educated.
As a group, highly educated people don’t vote for Trump.
Macksbrownies
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uncjhodges
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michigan is not voting 6 points to the right of Pennsylvania
superrific
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According to Nate Cohn of the NYT, the biggest systematic difference between polls is that some of them are weighting on the basis of recalled 2020 vote and some are not. The ones weighting on the former basis are showing a larger national lead for Kamala but smaller state leads. In other words, recalled 2020 vote weights are making this election look more like the last one, whereas the polls not weighting in that fashion are showing a smaller national lead for Kamala but better swing state performance.
Methodologically, weighting on the basis of recalled vote is bad. It just is. That's why it hasn't been used for a long time. It's being pulled out this year because 1) the assumption that the 2024 election is going to more resemble the 2020 election than perhaps any other pair of elections in recent history; and 2) they've got to find some way of reaching the Trumpers. It's a kludge. We will find out if it's a useful one, but in theory it should be worse for a number of reasons.
I suspect that the use of recalled vote weighting will be overkill. In 2016 there was concern over the "shy Trump voter." Well, those voters aren't so shy any more. Maybe there still are some quiet ones who don't go to rally or put up signs or post BSC craziness to social media, and who would also be reluctant to admit to another person that they are Trumpers. It's also possible that the Trump voters, distrustful as they are, are still harder to reach than other voters, but I'm skeptical. I think Trump voters now pay more attention to polls than they did before, in part because Trump has made "being up in the polls" such a central part of his victimization campaign that people are eager to boost his poll numbers. So recalled vote is a correction to a problem that might not exist.
superrific
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Nate Cohn acknowledged that 13 was probably an outlier, but he thinks 4 is ridiculously low. Trump is probably going to win Florida by 7-8 points, I suspect.
And that's good news for Kamala. Remember: every vote cast in excess of 50%+1 is wasted. If Trump is down nationally by 2.5 but is up by 8 in Florida, then he must be doing worse somewhere else. He's also doing better than he was in CA and NY. Again, these are positive developments. So when we see national polls of Kamala +2 and PA polls of Kamala +2 -- well, those are often interpreted to be inconsistent. After all, isn't PA to the right of the U.S.? It has been. But if Trump is up 8 in Florida and only down 8 in CA, then maybe PA is no longer to the right of the US.
theel4life
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I don’t believe that.
superrific
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That's one of the effects, but it's not necessarily crazies. The demographic most supportive of Trump is white men 55+. Well, who are the people who retire to Florida? Crazy or not, the migration is going to end up funneling Trump support to Florida.
Bigs23
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FLA has been a lost cause.
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Well duh that’s why we need the great replacement.
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On the substantial Quinnipiac swings this election cycle:
"... Generally this indicates that something about the methodology is producing more noise than you'd expect based only on the sample size of the poll. And the answer is that they are using random digit dialing and doing a lot of weighting, so the MOE is about 30% higher than it would normally be per their own disclosure, and the low response rates and representativeness are also probably causing some sort of non-response that isn't captured by these statistics.
None of this is to say that Q polls are inaccurate, but they are seemingly less reliable than other methods that do more work to equalize response rates on the sampling end or use other design approaches to decrease effects of weighting and other non-sampling biases."
"... Generally this indicates that something about the methodology is producing more noise than you'd expect based only on the sample size of the poll. And the answer is that they are using random digit dialing and doing a lot of weighting, so the MOE is about 30% higher than it would normally be per their own disclosure, and the low response rates and representativeness are also probably causing some sort of non-response that isn't captured by these statistics.
None of this is to say that Q polls are inaccurate, but they are seemingly less reliable than other methods that do more work to equalize response rates on the sampling end or use other design approaches to decrease effects of weighting and other non-sampling biases."
lawtig02
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Yeah, that’s just not realistic. Both states are close, but 0% chance Trump’s up 4 in Michigan.
superrific
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The main reason it was a swing state was that it was a retirement haven primarily for liberal Jews from the Northeast (NY and NYC in particular). They were the core liberal constituency there. Well, those original transplants have been dying off, and their replacements haven't been liberal. It's expensive as hell now in the Jewish-friendly areas and hard to retire to, and lots of people from the Northeast are going to have little interest in relocating to Osceola.
Otherwise, why would we think Florida should be different from any of the other Confederate states?
Northern and Central Florida has always been South Alabama.
It is South Florida that has changed so much - in part for the reasons you state and in part because the Latino population (especially the non-Cuban Latino population) has trended more red over the last decade.
Centerpiece
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I may be wrong, but I think a lot of the Cuban population swings red and has for some time. This is not to say what you mentioned is not true, it very well could be “(especially the non-Cuban Latino population)”
Right. Cubans have been steadfast Republicans voters since the 1980s. It is the non-Cuban Latino population that has changed voting patterns.
superrific
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Harris is leading in the polls in all the states she needs to win. Moreover, she's leading in the polls there by more than Trump is winning in his must-wins of NC and GA.
Sure, a systemic polling error could mean Trump wins, but a few things. First, there's no a priori reason why polls should favor the Dem over Trump. That has been the case in the last two elections, but the effect has been attributed to factors that pollsters can adjust to and which depend on malleable human behavior being constant. Second, the proliferation of red wave polls, factored into the polling averages, makes it less likely that the polls will be tilted in Harris' favor. Third, if there has been meaningful change in the electorate, then it could disrupt polling accuracy.
I keep thinking about all the people who died from Covid post-election in 2020. They were predominantly Republican. They were also disproportionately anti-vaxx, pro-conspiracy people -- exactly the sort of person who didn't really vote much but Trump turned out. Well, Covid caused a lot of death, but not that much as a % of the population. Still, in a state like WI, 10,000 missing Trump votes could make a difference.
I also suspect that sorting will be a factor. States like MI, PA and NC had more "liberal" masking/Covid policies. I would imagine that people offended by that would be more likely to move out of state than people with more balanced views, and if they did leave, it would have been to freedumb states like Florida or the like.