2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

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CFordUNC said:
Same here. I am thinking a popular vote win by six points or more and an electoral college victory of 319-219.
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My "gut instinct" for months has been a feeling that Harris is going to win, and win by a larger margin than Biden did in 2020. I just get the sense that Trump fatigue is real and that his support is somewhat softer this year than in 2020 or 2016. OTOH, I also keep having flashbacks to 2016 and just can't convince myself at all that she's actually going to win. And I won't feel confident until (or even if) she's actually declared the winner after the election. Usually I trust my instincts, but not this time, probably because of everything that is at stake if he wins.
 
Mulberry Heel said:
My "gut instinct" for months has been a feeling that Harris is going to win, and win by a larger margin than Biden did in 2020. I just get the sense that Trump fatigue is real and that his support is somewhat softer this year than in 2020 or 2016. OTOH, I also keep having flashbacks to 2016 and just can't convince myself at all that she's actually going to win. And I won't feel confident until (or even if) she's actually declared the winner after the election. Usually I trust my instincts, but not this time, probably because of everything that is at stake if he wins.
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I feel identical to this.
 
EhringhausSouth said:
I think it is true, we don't really know and won't until election night or even a few days after as absentee and provisionals are counted in some places. I just really feel Trump's support is overstated in the polls. I think because it was understated in 2016 and 2020, I think they are trying to adjust methodology. I think Harris will win the national popular vote by 5% or better and win 300+ electoral votes. I really believe that.
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I've seen this stated multiple places (that pollsters are over adjusting their methodology) but I've never ready anything from a pollster stating they are adjusting their methodology to account for Trump over performing earlier polls. Can anyone point to an actual pollster stating that?
 
CHAMTRAIN said:
I've seen this stated multiple places (that pollsters are over adjusting their methodology) but I've never ready anything from a pollster stating they are adjusting their methodology to account for Trump over performing earlier polls. Can anyone point to an actual pollster stating that?
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They always talk about model adjustments. They never give specifics
 
In re polls: I have no idea how polling works anymore. I don't answer phone calls from unknown numbers. I no longer have a land line. I don't respond to unknown emails. I don't respond to unknown texts. I throw junk mail away unopened. I think about 90% of the population acts like I do. How can someone conduct a poll when the only people they can contact are the insane 10% of the population who are so desperate for any sort of human contact that they will talk to a pollster?
 
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aGDevil2k said:
Can we really just not get into the Bouzy shit? It's been debated about 50 pages by now.

Meanwhile:

www.dailykos.com

Media Polls are Garbage. Good News Edition

I am going to make this quick. Politico just received an internal memo from the Senate Republicans that can be politely described as putting lipstick on a pig. This was released to possible donors to induce them to donate to Senate Republican...
www.dailykos.com

Interesting POV. I do imagine if she only loses by Ohio by 4, she's winning the race.
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As someone from Ohio I agree
 
SmilingJack said:
"It's the economy stupid!" If this still resonates should be a landslide.
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If you were paying $2 per gallon of milk under Trump, and are not paying $3 (just making numbers up), and your wages haven't noticeably gone up, you may not think that the economy is better. Yes, all metrics indicate that it IS better, but if your own personal situation doesn't reflect that, touting the economy may not resonate with you. It is absolutely THOSE voters that Democrats need to reach.
 
TarHeelGrad said:
If you were paying $2 per gallon of milk under Trump, and are not paying $3 (just making numbers up), and your wages haven't noticeably gone up, you may not think that the economy is better. Yes, all metrics indicate that it IS better, but if your own personal situation doesn't reflect that, touting the economy may not resonate with you. It is absolutely THOSE voters that Democrats need to reach.
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You can't reach them if they aren't receptive to the message. It's not like there haven't been some serious filtering and distortions put in place by the disloyal opposition. It's that whole "You can lead a horse to water.." thing.

It's not that you're wrong but the reality is that you have to focus on the ROI because time and resources run out.
 
TarHeelGrad said:
If you were paying $2 per gallon of milk under Trump, and are not paying $3 (just making numbers up), and your wages haven't noticeably gone up, you may not think that the economy is better. Yes, all metrics indicate that it IS better, but if your own personal situation doesn't reflect that, touting the economy may not resonate with you. It is absolutely THOSE voters that Democrats need to reach.
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I think you're right in that people tend to have fairly myopic views of how the economy is doing, based on their own personal circumstances and feelings. But I don't really know how Dems are supposed to reach people who are still firmly convinced that the economy is bad, especially because those opinions are based as much on vibes/bias as on any objective facts. How are Dems going to convince these people who insist that their grocery and gas bills are far higher, that it really isn't the case?
 
rodoheel said:
I think you're right in that people tend to have fairly myopic views of how the economy is doing, based on their own personal circumstances and feelings. But I don't really know how Dems are supposed to reach people who are still firmly convinced that the economy is bad, especially because those opinions are based as much on vibes/bias as on any objective facts. How are Dems going to convince these people who insist that their grocery and gas bills are far higher, that it really isn't the case?
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Agree. Some people really have been hurt by the relatively high levels of inflation from 2021-23. But there are a ton of people who are actually ahead because of wage growth, etc., but THINK they’ve been hurt because their media sources have been telling them incessantly that they’ve been hurt. That latter group is probably unreachable at this point.
 
rodoheel said:
I think you're right in that people tend to have fairly myopic views of how the economy is doing, based on their own personal circumstances and feelings. But I don't really know how Dems are supposed to reach people who are still firmly convinced that the economy is bad, especially because those opinions are based as much on vibes/bias as on any objective facts. How are Dems going to convince these people who insist that their grocery and gas bills are far higher, that it really isn't the case?
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You say something to the effect of "The economy is strong, but we are all too aware that the benefits of this strong economy are not being shared equally amongst all who have contributed to it. Too frequently corporations and billionaires take the windfall and refuse to pass along even the small amounts that they had promised would "trickle down" to the workers who make their success possible. Our administration will make sure that you and your family feel the benefit of the improved economy by making the rich pay their fair share in taxes, to provide for things like health care and child care and housing credits for you and other working-class families."
 
rodoheel said:
I think you're right in that people tend to have fairly myopic views of how the economy is doing, based on their own personal circumstances and feelings. But I don't really know how Dems are supposed to reach people who are still firmly convinced that the economy is bad, especially because those opinions are based as much on vibes/bias as on any objective facts. How are Dems going to convince these people who insist that their grocery and gas bills are far higher, that it really isn't the case?
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You can't. People look at bread, milk, eggs and gas prices. That's it. And Americans are fairly dim bulbs when it comes to: "Oh, that's right, Pandemic and supply chain shortages + corporate price gouging jacked up those prices (and it had fuck-all to do with Biden/Harris)." They have no critical thinking skills and can't add all that together and ALSO add in higher wages now, and the fact THE ENTIRE FUCKING WORLD is going through (and has gone through) inflation, AND the U.S. has OUT PERFORMED THE ENTIRE WORLD in battling this under Biden/Harris. At least half the Nation can't analyze all this. All of that plus they are sheeple and believe what right wing media and Der Führer tell them to believe.

There is no "Dems going to convince these people..." otherwise. It's a total impossibility
 
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