superrific
Legend of ZZL
- Messages
- 8,747
Being right once is meaningless. How did he do in 2020, 2018 or 2016?This guy is good. He nailed the 2022 elections.
Regardless of his track record, that analysis above is shit. Objectively.
Follow along with the video below to see how to install our site as a web app on your home screen.
Note: This feature may not be available in some browsers.
Being right once is meaningless. How did he do in 2020, 2018 or 2016?This guy is good. He nailed the 2022 elections.
The biggest issue to me is not the timing of the early vote, which is always a terrible predictor of outcomes. It’s that he doesn’t account for the massive change in the Florida electorate over the last few years. Some states are becoming bluer. Florida, with every Boomer moving to the Villages and Ft Myers, is becoming much redder. Scott is at some small amount of risk because he’s a dipshit, but I’ll be shocked if Florida goes blue in a presidential election in my lifetime.I have no particular opinion of this Bouzy fellow, but I can tell you with certainty that this analysis is shit. That would be true even if the vote timing wasn't thrown way out of whack by hurricanes. There's no such thing as "this point in the voting period" -- especially since we have no idea who these voters will be actually voting for. Will there be significant #s of Dems voting R? Almost surely -- that's been the case throughout the South for generations. Vice versa? Probably, but perhaps to a lesser extent. We don't know. Which is why, if we need to look at something right now to gauge the state of the race, look at polls. Looking at returned ballots tells you nothing.
What the hell is the point of doing RVs just 3 weeks out? Hmmmm. Weird stuff from NBCRVs not LVs
IMO he did very well in 2020. He wasn't doing that stuff in 2016 at least. I first started to know who he was because he was absolutely nailing Georgia and Arizona.Being right once is meaningless. How did he do in 2020, 2018 or 2016?
Regardless of his track record, that analysis above is shit. Objectively.
Because it’s a high turnout election and LV requires a lot of assumptions stacked on the demographics? @nycfan made this point recently that RV polls might actually be pretty reflective at this point (presuming I read the point correctly).What the hell is the point of doing RVs just 3 weeks out? Hmmmm. Weird stuff from NBC
Yes, that was my point earlier — in such a high turnout election RV seems to be a better approach.Because it’s a high turnout election and LV requires a lot of assumptions stacked on the demographics? @nycfan made this point recently that RV polls might actually be pretty reflective at this point (presuming I read the point correctly).
I don't know if she can really lean into the economy, but Trump is sure as hell running away from the economy. He's all in on immigration and racism as we head to the line. Their polling must be showing the economy is no longer a great argument for Pubs, even if it's also difficult for Dems.An incumbent President never loses a reelection with the economy doing this well. Now Harris isn't an incumbent. But I would think in the closing weeks she should be leaning into the economy much more in her messaging. Might help with the very groups she is worried about.
Counterpoint - all around the world the governments that were in charge for the post-COVID economic struggles are losing reelection bids left and right. (Saw that point made on Twitter recently, I believe by Matt Yglesias.)An incumbent President never loses a reelection with the economy doing this well. Now Harris isn't an incumbent. But I would think in the closing weeks she should be leaning into the economy much more in her messaging. Might help with the very groups she is worried about.
eh I don't know that Trump is really running away from the economy, he's just folding all that extra immigration/xenophobia in. I'm still seeing plenty of the Trump ads mocking Kamala for touting "Bidenomics."I don't know if she can really lean into the economy, but Trump is sure as hell running away from the economy. He's all in on immigration and racism as we head to the line. Their polling must be showing the economy is no longer a great argument for Pubs, even if it's also difficult for Dems.
It's not correct - there are always lots of people that are registered and dont vote. They are usually democrats. In High D turnouts, those can be missed but if it is not a balanced high turnout then RV polls fail. If one side is way more enthused, those polls suckBecause it’s a high turnout election and LV requires a lot of assumptions stacked on the demographics? @nycfan made this point recently that RV polls might actually be pretty reflective at this point (presuming I read the point correctly).
I also nailed GA and AZ. That doesn't make me an expert. How'd he do in WI with Barnes v Johnson? Or Florida in 2018? If you only count the predictions that were true and forget the ones that are false . . . it makes you a college basketball recruiting analyst (or at least that's how it was in the old days).IMO he did very well in 2020. He wasn't doing that stuff in 2016 at least. I first started to know who he was because he was absolutely nailing Georgia and Arizona.
He's also very pompous and his obsession with Florida is just weird (and not near where any focus should be). Now if he gets it right? I will be shocked and dude will deserve his massive props
Only problem is the former President Harris is running against has convinced 1/2 the country that the economy is shit. It doesn't matter what economists say. What matters is the electorate's impression of the economy.An incumbent President never loses a reelection with the economy doing this well. Now Harris isn't an incumbent. But I would think in the closing weeks she should be leaning into the economy much more in her messaging. Might help with the very groups she is worried about.
The “sky is falling” fundraising appeals have worked better than optimistic ones for decades.There’s been talk on this thread about “red polls” inflating the polling numbers for Trump in an effort to cast doubt if he loses. It seems that dems have been utilizing a contrasting strategy. It’s not that dems are manipulating poll numbers, but they seem to be highlighting and exploiting unfavorable polling numbers to gain financial contributions. I get about a hundred emails a day from democratic candidates’ campaigns, which take on an ominous and sometimes panicky tone, telling me that they are trailing or tied in the polls, or that their opponent is narrowing the margin, and therefore imploring me (or the email recipient) to donate to the campaign.
It seems that democratic candidates have taken on the strategy of trying to make the people who will likely vote for them feel that they are behind or that they’re losing ground in order to get campaign donations and motivate those people to get out and vote.