2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

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superrific said:
Which doesn't necessarily mean much. It's true that the poll is likely to be biased the same way, but margin of error still applies.

The polls are tightening a bit. I don't know why. What about Trump's behavior the last two weeks is causing people to like him more?

It's mind-boggling that the election could be decided by a) people who don't understand economics at all and thus b) think the president controls the economy and c) forget that the economy wasn't actually particularly good under Trump.
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Pretty much every single election in the history of the country (or at least its modern history) has been decided by people who don’t understand economics at all.
 
rodoheel said:
Pretty much every single election in the history of the country (or at least its modern history) has been decided by people who don’t understand economics at all.
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True but not sure how meaningful that is. You could say the same about politics in general, racism, climate change, etc. More to the point, I'd be leery of a society that demanded an "educated" voter considering the state and dependability of the education system.
 
nycfan said:
The trend is more that Harris has stabilized and Trump is gathering undecideds …
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I’m not sure that’s exactly right. I think Trump may be benefitting a bit from movement away from Stein, etc., which was always inevitable. The real undecideds won’t decide for another couple of weeks, and many of them will just not vote. There’s not much reason to think they’ll break for Trump. And as long as he stays around 47% or less, Kamala’s in very good shape.
 
I feel obligated to believe that with the decline in his physical and mental condition along with the increasingly worsening hate speech, a certain number of people are going to be compelled to either switch or choose to vote out of distaste for him. I know I have a friend voting for the first time ever for that reason. I just have no clue how many that will be. I don't see him getting better and the press isn't covering for him quite so much, so we'll see.
 
DrillAndFillHeel said:
I read this forum and get energized by the confidence surrounding Harris’ chances. Then everywhere else I don’t see it. I hope this forum isn’t giving me false hope.

Columns like this are what have me nervous:

www.yahoo.com

Opinion - Kamala Harris continues to underperform in critical states

Today’s polling speaks volumes; the Harris campaign’s increasing desperation speaks louder still.
www.yahoo.com www.yahoo.com
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J.T. Young is the author of the upcoming book, “Unprecedented Assault: How Big Government Unleashed America’s Socialist Left”

Ok take it with a grain of salt. The assumptions that the polling can be directly compared to 16 and 20, like response rates, error, models, filtering, etc are identical? Using RCP which openly uses all of the red wave floods? Then he calls her interviews softballs.

I learned in 2020 and 22 for sure to go by way more than the polls. Crowds, enthusiasm, small donations are indicative.
 
aGDevil2k said:
It still blows my mind that there are zero counties around Mecklenburg that have gone blue yet. It kind of defies trends of big metro areas
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Cabarrus will be the first to go blue. I will repeat the stats I offered on the early voting thread about the counties that border Mecklenburg.

“In 2020 Trump carried Union, Gaston, Iredell, and Lincoln counties by 20 or 30%. Trump carried Cabarrus by 6%, and the precincts from the city of Concord west to the Mecklenburg county line were all blue. The northern and eastern precincts (parts of Kannapolis and Mt. Pleasant) are the reddest parts of the county.”
 
aGDevil2k said:
It still blows my mind that there are zero counties around Mecklenburg that have gone blue yet. It kind of defies trends of big metro areas
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Maybe I'm wrong but if I'm reading that correctly, the county colors reflect party of registered early voters and not actual votes.
 
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