2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

  • Thread starter Thread starter nycfan
  • Start date Start date
  • Replies: 6K
  • Views: 144K
  • Politics 
StrangePackage said:
You say something to the effect of "The economy is strong, but we are all too aware that the benefits of this strong economy are not being shared equally amongst all who have contributed to it. Too frequently corporations and billionaires take the windfall and refuse to pass along even the small amounts that they had promised would "trickle down" to the workers who make their success possible. Our administration will make sure that you and your family feel the benefit of the improved economy by making the rich pay their fair share in taxes, to provide for things like health care and child care and housing credits for you and other working-class families."
Click to expand...
"Inflation was brutal. It was caused by lots of issues during the pandemic both here in the US and abroad. But we have been working hard to bring it down and ease the pain and now inflation is back below wage growth. Let's not go back to the policies from the prior administration that brough us high inflation and keep the policies we have been working on that brought inflation down every year"
 
nycfan said:
AARP:

"...
  • Former President Donald Trump (R) leads Vice President Kamala Harris (D) by one percentage point in the head-to-head presidential matchup in Michigan. Trump maintains this one-point lead among voters 50 and older; though he leads by eleven points among 50- to 64-year-olds, Harris leads among voters 65 and older, also by eleven points. Harris has picked up three points since the first AARP Michigan voter poll, which was published in August.

www.aarp.org

In Michigan, Presidential and U.S. Senate Races Extremely Close

<p>Michigan voters 50-plus are the most committed age group for voting in the 2024 election and appear to be on track to decide in the upcoming elections.</p>
www.aarp.org www.aarp.org

They have the MI Senate race D+3
Click to expand...
Gen X....making me ashamed every day.
 
nycfan said:
AARP:

"...
  • Former President Donald Trump (R) leads Vice President Kamala Harris (D) by one percentage point in the head-to-head presidential matchup in Michigan. Trump maintains this one-point lead among voters 50 and older; though he leads by eleven points among 50- to 64-year-olds, Harris leads among voters 65 and older, also by eleven points. Harris has picked up three points since the first AARP Michigan voter poll, which was published in August.

www.aarp.org

In Michigan, Presidential and U.S. Senate Races Extremely Close

<p>Michigan voters 50-plus are the most committed age group for voting in the 2024 election and appear to be on track to decide in the upcoming elections.</p>
www.aarp.org www.aarp.org

They have the MI Senate race D+3
Click to expand...
I could be wrong, but I don’t think Trump leading by just 1 point over Kamala in the 50 and over crowd is good news for Trump. It’s very sad and disappointing in general, but I would think he needs at least a +5 advantage among that group to offset the under 50 crowd.
 
Last edited:
aGDevil2k said:
I could see her with a smaller popular vote win just from some softening in New York etc
Click to expand...
Until recently the Electoral College benefited the GOP (i.e., they lose popular vote but win EC)

I think the great realignment we're in the midst of may see that change somewhat. Dems start to win swing states like NC and GA occasionally, but carry much smaller margins in traditionally blue states thus affecting their popular vote margin. The second phenomenon caused by a combination blue New Yorkers moving to NC (thus contributing to phenomenon one) but traditionally Dem constituencies becoming more conservative (like Muslims in Michigan and Hispanics in California.
 
lawtig02 said:
Trump is strong with low-propensity voters. Kamala is strong with high-propensity voters. If we turn out, we win. It's as simple as that.
Click to expand...
In that case, you should be rooting for low turnout. High propensity voters will vote no matter what. Low propensity voters only vote in high turnout elections. So the last thing you should want is high turnout.
 
Calheel said:
In that case, you should be rooting for low turnout. High propensity voters will vote no matter what. Low propensity voters only vote in high turnout elections. So the last thing you should want is high turnout.
Click to expand...
I don't want high turnout from low propensity voters. But Kamala supporters obviously need to turn out.
 
lawtig02 said:
I don't want high turnout from low propensity voters. But Kamala supporters obviously need to turn out.
Click to expand...
They will. But it would be far better if we reverted to 2016 overall turnout numbers.

Obviously, every side wants their voters to turn out and not the other voters. But that is not how it usually works.

So if our side does worse with low propensity voters, we should be rooting for very low turnout numbers.
 
But yeah we want higher black and Latino turnout. Higher women.

And record low turnout for high school diploma white men
 
StrangePackage said:
You say something to the effect of "The economy is strong, but we are all too aware that the benefits of this strong economy are not being shared equally amongst all who have contributed to it. Too frequently corporations and billionaires take the windfall and refuse to pass along even the small amounts that they had promised would "trickle down" to the workers who make their success possible. Our administration will make sure that you and your family feel the benefit of the improved economy by making the rich pay their fair share in taxes, to provide for things like health care and child care and housing credits for you and other working-class families."
Click to expand...
No one believes anyone will make the billionaires pay their share.

But, Trump claims he’ll make immigrants “pay” - “pay” for what? Who knows?

So long as “they” “pay.” That’s important. “They” must “pay.”
 
lawtig02 said:
Trump is strong with low-propensity voters. Kamala is strong with high-propensity voters. If we turn out, we win. It's as simple as that.
Click to expand...
Uh……high-propensity voters turn out. They vote in school board elections.

If truly low-propensity voters turn out, that could be good news for Trump and the GOP.
 
Zoo_View said:
Uh……high-propensity voters turn out. They vote in school board elections.

If truly low-propensity voters turn out, that could be good news for Trump and the GOP.
Click to expand...
Yeah, my post must be inarticulate because you and Calheel both had that response. The point I was trying to make is that I’m not at all sure polling is accurately accounting for voting propensities among the groups in Trump’s and Kamala’s respective buckets. The only problem would be if Trump’s groups overperform and Kamala’s don’t show up for some reason. I don’t think that will happen, so it probably wasn’t a point worth mentioning.
 
My household gets several polling phone calls a week. We don't participate. I don't have any idea who does-obviously many do-I don't know what the group that does "skews " towards ?
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top