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Which doesn't necessarily mean much. It's true that the poll is likely to be biased the same way, but margin of error still applies.She was +7 in their last poll
Link?OTOH, Harris +8 among RV and LV in Bullfinch Group poll in Michigan.
What makes you think Harris is in great shape? I need some good news.I know this is reductionist, but we're now at the point where the polls can be ignored. Watch what the candidates are doing. Kamala's in GREAT shape. As is my prediction of her winning NC by 4+ points.
This poll is just different from anything I've seen. They aren't weighting their respondents. Rather, they set targets for the demographics they wanted, and kept calling people until the quotas were filled (there was some margin of error). It's not clear what they did with excess respondents -- i.e. if they already had all the white men they wanted, if they reached another white man, did they just drop it out? -- but anyway, the idea is to avoid trying to weight respondents. I'm not sure it's as different in practice as they try to make it sound; there's still some weighting going on through the quota approach, but I guess it could reduce some sort of errors. As for details/observations:![]()
Your Election Guide for the Midrust Battlegrounds
In this final stretch of the 2024 campaign, we’d like to do things a little differently, and share our Fully Unweighted, Completely Transparent (F.U.C.T.) data. Below you’ll find our toplines, crosstabs, and raw data.Why raw data, you ask? Think of this as March Madness. As pollsters and...www.thebullfinchgroup.com
I assumed it was RV and LV, but it looks like they just did two different LV samples maybe? Both +8
More money, probably a better ground game, indications that Trump's EV advantage from 16 and 20 is fading, better results in methodologically superior polls, hopefully effects yet to be seen from Trump's dementia, and so forth.What makes you think Harris is in great shape? I need some good news.
7pm, as in when the polls close.Where is this 7 pm thing coming from? Pretty sure you just need to be alive at 12:01 AM.
I want to believe. But honestly don't understand what your source of optimism is on this. If you're the type who just needs to project optimism, then all good. I just can't share it without some objective basis. I would be pleasantly surprised if Kamala wins NC at all, and absolutely shocked if it's by more than a razor-thin margin.I know this is reductionist, but we're now at the point where the polls can be ignored. Watch what the candidates are doing. Kamala's in GREAT shape. As is my prediction of her winning NC by 4+ points.
Not trying to argue, just understand.7pm, as in when the polls close.
Point is, there's no obvious reason why an in-person election day voter who dies that day should have the vote count when absentee voters don't. There's an empirically correct answer, which I don't know, but it's not dictated by logic. Not worth arguing.
I've mentioned before perhaps on IC. My mom passed after mailing in and before 2015 election day. A few weeks after election day there was a letter addressed to her from NC Board of elections stating her "ballot was disqualified because she was deceased" before election day.Not trying to argue, just understand.
As I understand it, some states disqualify early voters if they die before Election Day. That rule makes perfect sense (if hard to enforce). It gives parity to those who vote on Election Day who also have to be alive to vote.
You won’t know which ballot belongs to which voter on Election Day. The ballot doesn’t contain any personal information.7pm, as in when the polls close.
Point is, there's no obvious reason why an in-person election day voter who dies that day should have the vote count when absentee voters don't. There's an empirically correct answer, which I don't know, but it's not dictated by logic. Not worth arguing.
Likewise. Wtf?Also, my “Z” icon in the upper left corner is purple and gold. Did we get hacked by tigerdroppings?
Exit polls?Wonder if polls target people who have already voted?
IIRC, in the last week or so of the 2020 election, when early voting became a big thing, polls would break down RV, LV, and already voted (maybe as a subset of LV)Wonder if polls target people who have already voted?
My co-worker agrees with you and is convinced it will be a crushing defeat for Trump. I hope you guys are right. Wish I was as confident.
I would agree Kamala continues to do a great job on the trail and Trump continues to be a crazy man.
Well, that would be great but does this extreme optimism have any basis? I mean, Obama won NC by half a point, in a much better overall environment. And then Dems have lost every statewide federal office election. 4+ seems crazy to me.