2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

[lightbluenc]

I read this forum and get energized by the confidence surrounding Harris’ chances. Then everywhere else I don’t see it. I hope this forum isn’t giving me false hope.

Columns like this are what have me nervous:

Opinion - Kamala Harris continues to underperform in critical states

Today’s polling speaks volumes; the Harris campaign’s increasing desperation speaks louder still.

www.yahoo.com

This is such a bullshit article.

It says Biden barely beat Trump in the electoral college, and he won 306 to 232, because he narrowly won WI, AZ, GA, NV by 77k votes. Biden wasn't even predicted to win GA and AZ. And meanwhile it says Clinton lost in 2016 handily 304 to 227. WTF man its nearly identical yet Biden narrowly won and Trump handily won.

It also says she's done "softball" interviews, has come out of hiding, while mentions nothing of Trump's absolute disaster of a campaign.

Don't pay attention to this shit, it's there to cause Dems to feel that doom. These polls are coming out, and the election is happening right now. Who cares about a poll when you can literally go vote.

 

[theel4life]

 

[hedge]

Also, my “Z” icon in the upper left corner is purple and gold. Did we get hacked by tigerdroppings?

It's like that on my phone, but not my laptop. I was going to say something but my dad went to ECU so I decided I was OK with it...

 

[superrific]

Wow. That must have been, like, at least 400 people. NC is ours now, baby!

Never mind. I was being stupid.

 

[SmilingJack]

Wow. That must have been, like, at least 400 people. NC is ours now, baby!

 

[CLT Heel]

O

Wow. That must have been, like, at least 400 people. NC is ours now, baby!

the point is if half of those people came out to this and maybe would not have voted otherwise, and there are 50 of these events across the state, you start to see a pattern of new voters that actually will make a meaningful dent in the overall numbers.

 

[aGDevil2k]

Wow. That must have been, like, at least 400 people. NC is ours now, baby!

You really don't follow NC closely huh?

 

[superrific]

the point is if half of those people came out to this and maybe would not have voted otherwise, and there are 50 of these events across the state, you start to see a pattern of new voters that actually will make a meaningful dent in the overall numbers.

Yes, I'm aware. I was being somewhat sardonic, and also making a point that this kind of stuff can only make a marginal difference. If you have 50 of those events and you get 200 new voters in every one, that's 10000 votes. 1/7 of Trump's victory margin in 2020. The world is impossibly large and elections make that so, so clear.

 

[superrific]

You really don't follow NC closely huh?

I don't live in NC currently. I haven't lived in NC for 30 years. In fact, I kind of hate NC. I like UNC sports teams, and have since I was a little boy. That's my connection.

But what's your point?

 

[aGDevil2k]

I don't live in NC currently. I haven't lived in NC for 30 years. In fact, I kind of hate NC. I like UNC sports teams, and have since I was a little boy. That's my connection.

But what's your point?

That getting our HBCU students out is a massive massive thing for gotv efforts

We have a lot of them

 

[nycfan]

 

[superrific]

That getting our HBCU students out is a massive massive thing for gotv efforts

We have a lot of them

Total enrollment in all of them put together appears to be about half of Trump's 2020 margin.

But anyway . . . my original comment was stupid. I retract it. It's one video of one thing happening on one day. Of course it's not going to win the state for us. There could be 20000 people in that line and it wouldn't win the state for us all on its own, but that's clearly the wrong standard to apply.

I was reacting to the twitter line in which the guy wrote, "these young people are going to win the election for us," when it's very far from clear if that's actually true. But of course he wasn't stating it as an empirical prediction. He was saying it as a rally cry. I mean, not literally a rally cry but pretty close to literal.

So I take it all back. Carry on.

 

[aGDevil2k]

Total enrollment in all of them put together appears to be about half of Trump's 2020 margin.

But anyway . . . my original comment was stupid. I retract it. It's one video of one thing happening on one day. Of course it's not going to win the state for us. There could be 20000 people in that line and it wouldn't win the state for us all on its own, but that's clearly the wrong standard to apply.

I was reacting to the twitter line in which the guy wrote, "these young people are going to win the election for us," when it's very far from clear if that's actually true. But of course he wasn't stating it as an empirical prediction. He was saying it as a rally cry. I mean, not literally a rally cry but pretty close to literal.

So I take it all back. Carry on.

Ok cool
Cause the same thing is happening at GHOE today as well

 

[superrific]

Ok cool
Cause the same thing is happening at GHOE today as well

I find that, this time of even numbered years, the enormity of the world is almost incomprehensible and it's depressing. I admit, I feel powerless. Even if I could work tirelessly and convince 100 Trump voters to vote for Kamala, the likelihood of that affecting the election is tiny. And that marching band too -- in isolation, it means nothing. There are just so many people, and thus so much stupidity to battle. Fortunately I don't battle the stupidity alone (of course) but it sometimes feels lonely because it's almost impossible to experience a gathering of people that could swing the election.

Anyway, whatever. It's dumb to minimize the efforts of people trying to do their best.

 

[uncgriff]

Wow. That must have been, like, at least 400 people. NC is ours now, baby!

Never mind. I was being stupid.

They need to vote often

 

[nycfan]

If accurate, this early data is not encouraging for Dems in AZ

 

[nycfan]

Pubs are early voting in NC

 

[superrific]

If accurate, this early data is not encouraging for Dems in AZ

Meaningless, especially in a state where 41% of the ballots are (I). That's who will decide the election. My guess is that newly registered voters who lean D register as I, whereas conservative voters register as R. But of course that's a guess.

 

[superrific]

Pubs are early voting in NC

Don't Dems tend to go to the polls on Sundays? Are the polls even open on Sundays any more? I know they were fucking with early voting on Sundays but I'm pretty sure that was one of the changes enjoined by the 4th Circuit some time ago. Maybe they've put it in.

Anyway, again, you can't draw any conclusions from the early voting at this stage, especially a) the high number of independents and b) no clear visibility into who is voting. If registered Republicans are voting for Kamala -- and some of them will, and likely more than Ds voting for Trump -- then that changes the picture as well.

 

[nycfan]

Meaningless, especially in a state where 41% of the ballots are (I). That's who will decide the election. My guess is that newly registered voters who lean D register as I, whereas conservative voters register as R. But of course that's a guess.

I disagree — if you dig into the low propensity voter data, i would be very happy if I were a GOP operative with the red advantage on returned ballots for new voters and voters who only voted in 1-2 of the last four elections. OTOH, Ds solid with the high propensity voters early on.