2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

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gtyellowjacket said:
The other markets providing some similar information is true. The accuracy of those betting markets in the past is true.

Stupidity in the face of facts sure is a bad look but it's definitely in line with the rest of your beliefs and behaviors. Nobody wears it better.
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"In terms of the 2024 election odds, they, like the polls, are effectively predicting a toss up, which only underscores that we are in for a close election."

Not even your own quoted article aligns with your position on this election 🤡
 
gtyellowjacket said:
It's possible that they're being manipulated with the hope of dampening Democratic turnout but overseas markets are showing the same thing. Are these shadowy overseas sources really hoping to influence the American electorate by betting on some Irish bookie site?
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You are aware that China and Russia are the US's enemy even if not Trump's ,aren't you? They have both proven that they will do anything to disrupt our country. Are you really so gullible as to think the Irish would actually give a shit where the money comes from? Are you really this gullible or do you just play that role here?
 
theel4life said:
I appreciate you guys optimism but right not the trends don’t look good.
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Those trends being what?

www.nbcnews.com

Early Voting and Mail-In Ballots by State 2024 Results

View the results for mail-in and early in-person ballots in your state for the 2024 general elections
www.nbcnews.com www.nbcnews.com

And keep in mind these are only early vote totals, predominantly cast by retirees during workday hours (excluding mail-in voting). I'm just not seeing a need for angst, really under any circumstance.
 
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theel4life said:
Someone give me some data or info that says Kamala is going to win. Boost my confidence.
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it's not data but he is a savvy politico

www.lipstickalley.com

'This sucker is baked': Bush adviser explains why he's certain Harris has already won

'This sucker is baked': Bush adviser explains why he's certain Harris has already won A core adviser to George W. Bush and Sen. John McCain made an election prediction Friday which he said was almost certain: “This sucker is baked.” Mark McKinnon, who served as the chief media adviser for...
www.lipstickalley.com www.lipstickalley.com
 
theel4life said:
I appreciate you guys optimism but right not the trends don’t look good.
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Ok one post fine. You're at like 3 or 4 just wanting someone to coddle you

Nothing has changed. He could win. She could win. But nothing has changed. Turnout is setting records.

So stop asking for people to give you a reassuring perspective because you clearly just want to wallow in fear and pity today
 
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theel, no bs'ing, IMO it's time to log-off and go outside and be/communicate with people you appreciate. If neither is an option, hell you can DM me to process the doom spiral - genuinely - or maybe better, start a "Caught in the DOOM-SPIRAL" thread. I'd probably participate as a net pessimist who has some pretty extreme views of how liberals should prepare for the coming years.

I can't speak for everyone, and I recognize some folks won't appreciate me saying, but you have a history of spamming this board when you're in your feels, and it hurts my experience to wade through it all. I think if you cordon the spirals a bit you might get more layered attention/discussion, in more appropriate places.
 
finesse said:
You are aware that China and Russia are the US's enemy even if not Trump's ,aren't you? They have both proven that they will do anything to disrupt our country. Are you really so gullible as to think the Irish would actually give a shit where the money comes from? Are you really this gullible or do you just play that role here?
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I'm making the argument that the Irish betting market isn't the place to put your resources if you are hoping to manipulate the US electorate. And they are lining up with the US betting markets.
 
CallMeTyler said:
"In terms of the 2024 election odds, they, like the polls, are effectively predicting a toss up, which only underscores that we are in for a close election."

Not even your own quoted article aligns with your position on this election 🤡
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My position is at those betting markets have been more accurate than polls and they aren't looking so great for Kamala right now.🤡
 
gtyellowjacket said:
My position is at those betting markets have been more accurate than polls and they aren't looking so great for Kamala right now.🤡
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So the greatest experts in the world say it's a toss up and slight lean to her at best.... And you think those things are the real experts?
 
gtyellowjacket said:
I'm making the argument that the Irish betting market isn't the place to put your resources if you are hoping to manipulate the US electorate. And they are lining up with the US betting markets.
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How much do you think that betting there costs split between superpowers? The price of a single fighter plane?

Biggest point of failure with your argument is that you're comparing it to a market we know has been manipulated. For the two of those to line up suggests almost exactly the opposite of what you are arguing.
 
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aGDevil2k said:
So the greatest experts in the world say it's a toss up and slight lean to her at best.... And you think those things are the real experts?
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No. I'm saying the greatest experts in the world favor Trump. There are plenty of things that could prevent a Trump win including the betting markets changing, the bettors being wrong, etc. But right now the betting markets favor Trump.

But what I wouldn't do is simply dismiss the results outright because they don't line up with what I hope is the case. It's a thread discussing polls and I'm simply pointing out that betting markets are typically better than polls but I'd also say that they're not perfect.
 
finesse said:
How much do you think that betting there costs split between superpowers? The price of a single fighter plane?

Biggest point of failure with your argument is that you're comparing it the a market we know has been manipulated. For the two of those to line up suggests almost exactly the opposite of what you are arguing.
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Sure. The Russians and the Chinese could possibly spend enough money to manipulate the worldwide betting markets but is that really realistic? Other than some hardcore political dorks, who even looks at the Serbian betting market on the US presidential election? No one. Why would Russia or China spend their money to do that If their goal is to manipulate the US electorate to vote for Trump or at least stay home on election Day?

So in my opinion it's unlikely that they would spend that money and if they didn't spend that money and yet the overseas betting markets still favor Trump, then there's probably some truth to those markets.
 
Not a belts and suspenders guy, huh. I'm saying it's a negligible investment for them to move enough money into this to help push the line in the way the US line has already gone. That means that all lot of people are going to follow what looks like the smart money without knowing a damned thing about the actual situation. I doubt that takes much money and scarcely any effort. If they didn't, the question is "Why didn't they?" instead of" Why would they?'. It's a cheap easy way to undermine us.

To personify this, you got to remember what that cheap shot at every opportunity did did to Hillary's reputation and ,ultimately, to her as a person.
 
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