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2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

  • Thread starter Thread starter nycfan
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nycfan said:
I disagree — if you dig into the low propensity voter data, i would be very happy if I were a GOP operative with the red advantage on returned ballots for new voters and voters who only voted in 1-2 of the last four elections. OTOH, Ds solid with the high propensity voters early on.
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Ugh I don’t like your posts.
 
superrific said:
Don't Dems tend to go to the polls on Sundays? Are the polls even open on Sundays any more? I know they were fucking with early voting on Sundays but I'm pretty sure that was one of the changes enjoined by the 4th Circuit some time ago. Maybe they've put it in.

Anyway, again, you can't draw any conclusions from the early voting at this stage, especially a) the high number of independents and b) no clear visibility into who is voting. If registered Republicans are voting for Kamala -- and some of them will, and likely more than Ds voting for Trump -- then that changes the picture as well.
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The NC early data is most notable that GOP voters are availing themselves of early voting at much higher numbers than the past four national elections. Presumably that will draw down GOP dominance in Election Day voting.
 
nycfan said:
The NC early data is most notable that GOP voters are availing themselves of early voting at much higher numbers than the past four national elections. Presumably that will draw down GOP dominance in Election Day voting.
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Also many more Pubs are voting Kamala than Dems vote Trump.
 
nycfan said:
Well, no way to discern that from the turnout data.
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I think much of it depends where those pub votes are coming from. In Mecklenburg, for example, there are probably a fair amount of pubs voting for Kamala. In red counties, no so much.
 
nycfan said:
I disagree — if you dig into the low propensity voter data, i would be very happy if I were a GOP operative with the red advantage on returned ballots for new voters and voters who only voted in 1-2 of the last four elections. OTOH, Ds solid with the high propensity voters early on.
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1. The edge in 0x and 1x amounts to like 4K votes. It is unlikely to sway the election.
2. These things don't necessarily have trends. In 2020, remember that the Dems were WAY ahead on mail-in ballots in AZ, and then the GOP caught up with some late dropoffs. Plus, there are always random fluctuations in every data set. What we know is that the Pubs have a 4K edge over Dems in terms of returned ballots. That's all we know.
3. Again, the plurality of voters are (I). Their 0x and 1x turnout rate is low, but without knowing the composition, it's impossible to get an accurate picture. Consider this. Suppose there are 1000 0x I voters who return a ballot. They are all Dems. Then 500 GOP votes show up. Well, now the (I) turnout is increased, and it's still Dem leaning by a lot, so if you look at the topline numbers, that 500 votes looks like a good development for Dems but it wasn't.
4. We have no idea who the 0x voters are. If they haven't voted in the last 4 elections, there's no telling which party they currently support. They could be disaffected Never Trump Pubs who sat out elections and decided to show up this year because he's become a fucking lunatic, or because of 1/6.
5. Building on this point, AZ used to be quite conservative. It's only recently become purple. But AZ conservatism has been more libertarian than religious right historically. So a lot of those 0x or 1x GOPers could very well be libertarian-leaning -- which would explain why they sat out previous elections and maybe they are coming out to vote because they want to avoid the Trump tax.
6. Or maybe it's just that the GOP GOTV is working better right now. But there are so many unknowns that we really don't know. It's just not significant in and of itself.
 
nycfan said:
I disagree — if you dig into the low propensity voter data, i would be very happy if I were a GOP operative with the red advantage on returned ballots for new voters and voters who only voted in 1-2 of the last four elections. OTOH, Ds solid with the high propensity voters early on.
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Also remember that Dems have won the last 3 elections in Arizona. In 2022 it was a pretty substantial margin. That means the Dems were more likely to have turned out their 1x and 2x voters in 2020 or 2022, meaning that they are now 2x and 3x voters. The remainder of 1x Dem voters are the true low-propensity voters. Now the Dems aren't exactly killing it with 2x and 3x voters, but the point is that these categories just don't contain as much information as it might first appear.
 
People - especially Democrats - are so desperate to get some inkling of who is going to win that they are analyzing early voting results like they're examining tea leaves, much as they have been obsessing over polls for the past several months. I just don't think that either the polls nor early voting results are necessarily going to give us an accurate prediction of who is going to win. But I doubt that will keep nervous, highly anxious Democrats from worrying and metaphorically (or literally) chewing their fingernails right up to election day. And I'll freely confess that I'm one of them, even though I remain skeptical of polling results this year.
 
I polled a 23 yr car salesman today that was helping us test drive something new. He said he probably wouldn't vote because he feels uninformed but is too busy with working or playing to education himself OR vote.

He said many of his young friends are interested in voting, but only for the novelty - "he said only for voting for the sake of voting since they're mostly first-timers.

Also said he disliked all the pressure from progressives to vote. Felt there was negative judgement from progressives. He didn't go as far as saying "the woke people are pissing me off with all their pressure", but that's what it felt like he wanted to say, without knowing anything about me.

The young-men-red-pill thread interviewed some guy who said he hoped turnout was low among young men, and my convo today made me understand that sentiment.
 
gregh1 said:
I polled a 23 yr car salesman today that was helping us test drive something new. He said he probably wouldn't vote because he feels uninformed but is too busy with working or playing to education himself OR vote.

He said many of his young friends are interested in voting, but only for the novelty - "he said only for voting for the sake of voting since they're mostly first-timers.

Also said he disliked all the pressure from progressives to vote. Felt there was negative judgement from progressives. He didn't go as far as saying "the woke people are pissing me off with all their pressure", but that's what it felt like he wanted to say, without knowing anything about me.

The young-men-red-pill thread interviewed some guy who said he hoped turnout was low among young men, and my convo today made me understand that sentiment.
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If he was thinking about selling you a car, then he didn't tell you about his political leanings either way.
 
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