2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

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BillOfRights said:
projects.fivethirtyeight.com

Politics News | Breaking Political News, Video & Analysis-ABC News

ABC News is your trusted source on political news stories and videos. Get the latest coverage and analysis on everything from the Trump presidency, Senate, House and Supreme Court.
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projects.fivethirtyeight.com

Politics News | Breaking Political News, Video & Analysis-ABC News

ABC News is your trusted source on political news stories and videos. Get the latest coverage and analysis on everything from the Trump presidency, Senate, House and Supreme Court.
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I know. Clearly I’m not someone who is putting much stock in or staking my emotions on polling and forecasts, but rather focusing on fundamentals and intangibles. Not saying that my method is right or wrong versus yours or others’, just that it’s what I’m doing.
 
lawtig02 said:
I’m not sure that’s exactly right. I think Trump may be benefitting a bit from movement away from Stein, etc., which was always inevitable. The real undecideds won’t decide for another couple of weeks, and many of them will just not vote. There’s not much reason to think they’ll break for Trump. And as long as he stays around 47% or less, Kamala’s in very good shape.
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nycfan said:
I do not wish to make people feel hopeless. I just try to cull and share possibly relevant information as it becomes available.

I could discontinue the poll and turnout data posting here — it’s not like you can’t all find it easily enough if you want to do so.
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Please continue to post the polls.
 
BillOfRights said:
Everything he says makes sense in a non-trump election, but when trump is on the ballot, regular-world data, indicators, and experience are irrelevant. If polls had Harris up 10 points, I would still be worried. Silent-trump voters, misogyny, racism, and disinformation are factors that I haven't seen captured or represented. Biden was up in the polls, won the popular vote by 4.4%, and it was still a squeaker. I pray I'm wrong and you and McKinnon are right.
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Trump voters are anything but silent.

If anything I suspect there are a lot of secret Kamala voters out there. They are women in red districts too afraid to tell their husbands, friends, or congregation they are voting for Harris.
 
CFordUNC said:
I hear you for sure. It's possible, but I very highly doubt those types of ads- and I've seen them down here in Alabama where I live- move any voter who wasn't already going to vote for Trump. Normal people juat aren't moved by that kind of weirdness. Many Republicans are, because many Republicans aren't normal people.
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They're not going to change many minds, but the point is to trigger a visceral reaction that prompts your average apathetic redneck to get off his ass and vote against her.
 
LosPollosHermanos said:
They're not going to change many minds, but the point is to trigger a visceral reaction that prompts your average apathetic redneck to get off his ass and vote against her.
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Yeah, I definitely hear you. Entirely possible y’all are right and I am wrong. I just figure anyone so moved by that type of advertisement probably wasn’t that apathetic to begin with. I can definitely see where you’re coming from that the ad would be targeted to try to get low probability voters to the polls. I guess I’m just more skeptical that it would actually be meaningfully impactful.
 
superrific said:
Oh, I see the problem. You're looking at the shit aggregator they call RCP. Look at a real site like 538, which is far less affected by the red wave polls.
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Oh I see the problem. You think you’re smarter than everyone else and you’re incapable of having a decent conversation because you’re too busy sniffing your own farts.

Sniff away, Superman.
 
Paine said:
Do people really care about that garbage? It didn’t play well in 2022, but I suppose that could be because it was a midterm year and low propensity voters didn’t turn out. If the theory is that low propensity voters are more motivated by trans panic and more likely to vote in 24 than 22, then I guess it makes sense.

Idk, I just can’t imagine that being something that people care about.
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Just as age can be a blinding liability, so can youth. Yes, our sweet summer child of the board...mean spirited people (of which there are a LOT) are absolutely motivated by that garbage.

There are plenty of "good people" who absolutely love to find some group punching bag in every election. They are easily manipulated and vote their anger.
 
dukeman92 said:
Oh I see the problem. You think you’re smarter than everyone else and you’re incapable of having a decent conversation because you’re too busy sniffing your own farts.

Sniff away, Superman.
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I apologize for my tone, which was less aimed at you and more at the guy who you linked. Also, my boys were starting to fight with each other.

But I don't know what any of that has to do with the simple fact that RCP has long been established as a shit aggregator. The people who run these red wave polls do it to fuck with RCP. It works on them.
 
superrific said:
I apologize for my tone, which was less aimed at you and more at the guy who you linked. Also, my boys were starting to fight with each other.

But I don't know what any of that has to do with the simple fact that RCP has long been established as a shit aggregator. The people who run these red wave polls do it to fuck with RCP. It works on them.
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RCP used to be a great resource. Started getting bad. Now it's just RW smut polls
 
Paine said:
I guess I know there is a certain segment of the population that is motivated by it. Just didn’t think it would be enough to swing an election.
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I hope not. As mentioned earlier however, I do think it can be effective at motivating a certain segment to remember to vote who otherwise might not do so.
 
superrific said:
I apologize for my tone, which was less aimed at you and more at the guy who you linked. Also, my boys were starting to fight with each other.

But I don't know what any of that has to do with the simple fact that RCP has long been established as a shit aggregator. The people who run these red wave polls do it to fuck with RCP. It works on them.
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All good.
 
Paine said:
Um, last week? I live in Raleigh and I’m from Saratoga in Wilson County. Lived there for 18 years and go back once a week.

Country people aren’t just trans hating hicks.
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Maybe not in slightly blue WIlson County. In many parts of the state, indeed they are.
 


In Nevada, Dems are more like to use mail-in and GOP more likely to go in person thus far



 
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