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2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

  • Thread starter Thread starter nycfan
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  • Politics 
DrillAndFillHeel said:
I read this forum and get energized by the confidence surrounding Harris’ chances. Then everywhere else I don’t see it. I hope this forum isn’t giving me false hope.

Columns like this are what have me nervous:

www.yahoo.com

Opinion - Kamala Harris continues to underperform in critical states

Today’s polling speaks volumes; the Harris campaign’s increasing desperation speaks louder still.
www.yahoo.com www.yahoo.com
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That’s an opinion piece by a conservative writer for The Federalist and The Washington Examiner.
 
nycfan said:
The trend is more that Harris has stabilized and Trump is gathering undecideds …
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I’m not sure that’s exactly right. I think Trump may be benefitting a bit from movement away from Stein, etc., which was always inevitable. The real undecideds won’t decide for another couple of weeks, and many of them will just not vote. There’s not much reason to think they’ll break for Trump. And as long as he stays around 47% or less, Kamala’s in very good shape.
 
I feel obligated to believe that with the decline in his physical and mental condition along with the increasingly worsening hate speech, a certain number of people are going to be compelled to either switch or choose to vote out of distaste for him. I know I have a friend voting for the first time ever for that reason. I just have no clue how many that will be. I don't see him getting better and the press isn't covering for him quite so much, so we'll see.
 
DrillAndFillHeel said:
I read this forum and get energized by the confidence surrounding Harris’ chances. Then everywhere else I don’t see it. I hope this forum isn’t giving me false hope.

Columns like this are what have me nervous:

www.yahoo.com

Opinion - Kamala Harris continues to underperform in critical states

Today’s polling speaks volumes; the Harris campaign’s increasing desperation speaks louder still.
www.yahoo.com www.yahoo.com
Click to expand...
J.T. Young is the author of the upcoming book, “Unprecedented Assault: How Big Government Unleashed America’s Socialist Left”

Ok take it with a grain of salt. The assumptions that the polling can be directly compared to 16 and 20, like response rates, error, models, filtering, etc are identical? Using RCP which openly uses all of the red wave floods? Then he calls her interviews softballs.

I learned in 2020 and 22 for sure to go by way more than the polls. Crowds, enthusiasm, small donations are indicative.
 
aGDevil2k said:
It still blows my mind that there are zero counties around Mecklenburg that have gone blue yet. It kind of defies trends of big metro areas
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Cabarrus will be the first to go blue. I will repeat the stats I offered on the early voting thread about the counties that border Mecklenburg.

“In 2020 Trump carried Union, Gaston, Iredell, and Lincoln counties by 20 or 30%. Trump carried Cabarrus by 6%, and the precincts from the city of Concord west to the Mecklenburg county line were all blue. The northern and eastern precincts (parts of Kannapolis and Mt. Pleasant) are the reddest parts of the county.”
 
aGDevil2k said:
It still blows my mind that there are zero counties around Mecklenburg that have gone blue yet. It kind of defies trends of big metro areas
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Maybe I'm wrong but if I'm reading that correctly, the county colors reflect party of registered early voters and not actual votes.
 
aGDevil2k said:
It still blows my mind that there are zero counties around Mecklenburg that have gone blue yet. It kind of defies trends of big metro areas
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I think that's the greatest difference between Georgia and NC, and it explains why Democrats have been able to break through in Georgia but not NC yet. Many of the suburbs around Atlanta have turned blue (including some that were solid red just a couple of decades ago). Combined with most of Georgia's urban areas like Savannah, Augusta, etc. voting blue, it's been just enough to overcome the deep red rural and small town areas that cover the state.

In NC, however, the Democrats just haven't been able to make serious inroads into most suburban and exurban counties and areas around Charlotte, Raleigh-Durham, the Triad, Asheville, etc. and that's why they keep losing the state, albeit often by narrow margins. Cabarrus County, I believe, is getting closer for Democrats, but most of these suburban areas around cities like Charlotte are still pretty heavily Republican.
 
Mulberry Heel said:
Yes, I believe that at least 400k is their goal. She keeps getting closer to that goal with each batch of early voting results that are released.
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Am I thinking of another state, or is PA now the one that mail in votes can’t actually be counted until Election Day?

If so, I’m wondering how many of those “Other” that are almost 10% will go to Harris.
 
fourheels said:
Maybe I'm wrong but if I'm reading that correctly, the county colors reflect party of registered early voters and not actual votes.
Click to expand...

You're reading it right. But they aren't blue counties at this point in any election.

Agreed cabarrus will flip first. Gaston is the one that blows my mind. I have had a weird suspicion that Democrat turnout in that county is way way below average

But yeah NC doesn't have that Clayton Gwinnett and even Cobb shift yet (well Clayton county is an exception because of demographics)
 
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