2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

[aGDevil2k]

Someone give me hope.

We don't know why you are feeling the way you are. Hard to help with that

 

[lawtig02]

Someone give me hope.

It’s going to be a beautiful day. Go get some fresh air. Avoid the news for a couple of days. And know nothing has really changed from a couple of weeks ago when the press wasn’t going out of its way to drive fear among Democrats.

 

[theel4life]

What makes you feel hopeless? Don’t pay attention to these polls that are being flooded the past few weeks. They are all over the place

Nycfan

 

[heelinhell]

The polls that are historically the best aren't really polls at all. They're the betting sites like polymarket and predictit. And right now, they don't look great for Harris.

You don't really know much about polymarket, do you ?

Google it and see who funds polymarket and who is manipulating the numbers with their bets

 

[BlueSmoke]

Don't Dems tend to go to the polls on Sundays?

Excellent point and question. I'm from Georgia and scrolled thru the county early voting data that was posted for Georgia. Little disappointed in turnout for some Dem areas. But Sunday voting could make that up. I think weekend voting is up to each county here, but I could be wrong.

 

[aGDevil2k]

Nycfan

Nycfan Doom scrolls Twitter... The heart of maga land, so we don't have to

You aren't getting a snapshot of the country on Twitter anymore. It's a toxic sludge of hell

 

[theel4life]

Excellent point and question. I'm from Georgia and scrolled thru the county early voting data that was posted for Georgia. Little disappointed in turnout for some Dem areas. But Sunday voting could make that up. I think weekend voting is up to each county here, but I could be wrong.

 

[aGDevil2k]

Excellent point and question. I'm from Georgia and scrolled thru the county early voting data that was posted for Georgia. Little disappointed in turnout for some Dem areas. But Sunday voting could make that up. I think weekend voting is up to each county here, but I could be wrong.

Could be people know the start of early voting is slammed so they intentionally wait for later.... Especially in urban and suburban areas

 

[CallMeTyler]

The polls that are historically the best aren't really polls at all. They're the betting sites like polymarket and predictit. And right now, they don't look great for Harris.

Sure. Large bets, made by foreign sources, and (4) specific offshore bets spiking in Trump’s favor give indications of Trump’s chances.

Sure seems like intentional market manipulation.

Tell me again how that’s a strong indicator for results?

 

[BlueSmoke]

It’s becoming more and more apparent Trump is likely to win. If that happens I am done with politics. If that’s what this Country wants I give up. I hate to say it but I just don’t have confidence that white men will vote for a black woman. It’s sad but true.

The blue wall states are my main focus. Encouraged by Dem turnout operation and fundraising. On negative side, worried about Catholic voters in all three blue wall states and of course Michigan's anti Israel vote. And the quality polls say its so close.

So while very, very close................its a jump ball really.

 

[Centerpiece]

The blue wall states are my main focus. Encouraged by Dem turnout operation and fundraising. On negative side, worried about Catholic voters in all three blue wall states and of course Michigan's anti Israel vote. And the quality polls say its so close.

So while very, very close................its a jump ball really.

Even though Trump has Kamala by several inches, I'd bet on her to out-jump his fat arse. That fat fuck can't get off the ground for nothing. Not even reaching for a Big Mac & a large fry

 

[aGDevil2k]

NBC News with a poll this morning on how folks feel on the issues

And if it's accurate, Harris is in good shape.. Her side of the issues is over 50% in each one

 

[gtyellowjacket]

They aren't old enough to have a history

They are older than you think because they have had overseas for a while. According to this article, they have a 77% prediction accuracy on all political races and they are almost perfect for presidential elections since 1980. Their only miss was failing to predict a trump victory which is 91% accuracy but only 11 data points.

How accurate are betting odds at predicting elections?

Betting odds can influence people's expectations about the result of the 2024 election, but how accurate have they been in the past?

www.newsweek.com

 

[theel4life]

They are older than you think because they have had overseas for a while. According to this article, they have a 77% prediction accuracy on all political races and they are almost perfect for presidential elections since 1980. Their only miss was failing to predict a trump victory which is 91% accuracy but only 11 data points.

How accurate are betting odds at predicting elections?

Betting odds can influence people's expectations about the result of the 2024 election, but how accurate have they been in the past?

www.newsweek.com

Yeah the odds are in Trump’s favor right now. I just hope and pray things break Kamala’s way.

 

[aGDevil2k]

Yeah the odds are in Trump’s favor right now. I just hope and pray things break Kamala’s way.

Dude you are seriously doom spiralling

 

[CallMeTyler]

They are older than you think because they have had overseas for a while. According to this article, they have a 77% prediction accuracy on all political races and they are almost perfect for presidential elections since 1980. Their only miss was failing to predict a trump victory which is 91% accuracy but only 11 data points.

How accurate are betting odds at predicting elections?

Betting odds can influence people's expectations about the result of the 2024 election, but how accurate have they been in the past?

www.newsweek.com

When Trump loses, will you publicly admit that the betting markets were manipulated and in fact were not a good indicator for election results?

"Miguel Morel, CEO of crypto analysis firm Arkham Intelligence, reportedly said that there was a "strong reason to believe" that all four Polymarket accounts that are betting heavily on Trump "are the same entity."

The accounts—Fredi9999, Theo4, PrincessCaro and Michie—reportedly created between June and earlier this month, were all funded using the same cryptocurrency exchange and all have similar betting patterns.

Political analyst Christopher Gerlacher told The Daily Beast in an article published on Friday that "Polymarket's spike was almost certainly a case of market manipulation."

Rajiv Sethi—an economist who coauthored a paper that concluded $7 million in bets placed on GOP Senator Mitt Romney by a single person before the 2012 presidential election were attempted manipulation—had similar thoughts on the Polymarket Trump bets."

Polymarket prediction platform possibly manipulated to favor Trump: Report

Trump's odds of defeating Vice President Kamala Harris have mysteriously surged on the platform in recent weeks.

www.newsweek.com

 

[gtyellowjacket]

Yeah the odds are in Trump’s favor right now. I just hope and pray things break Kamala’s way.

Me too.

 

[gtyellowjacket]

Sure. Large bets, made by foreign sources, and (4) specific offshore bets spiking in Trump’s favor give indications of Trump’s chances.

Sure seems like intentional market manipulation.

Tell me again how that’s a strong indicator for results?

It's possible that they're being manipulated with the hope of dampening Democratic turnout but overseas markets are showing the same thing. Are these shadowy overseas sources really hoping to influence the American electorate by betting on some Irish bookie site?

 

[Paine]

It's possible that they're being manipulated with the hope of dampening Democratic turnout but overseas markets are showing the same thing. Are these shadowy overseas sources really hoping to influence the American electorate by betting on some Irish bookie site?

I’d think the overseas bettors are following the lead of Americans who they assume have more knowledge of the political system than they do.

If Americans are betting that Trump will win, why wouldn’t bettors around the world assume the same?

 

[CallMeTyler]

It's possible that they're being manipulated with the hope of dampening Democratic turnout but overseas markets are showing the same thing. Are these shadowy overseas sources really hoping to influence the American electorate by betting on some Irish bookie site?

The entire Trump campaign is a disinformation campaign. Whether it's loaded polls to alter the average, the betting markets to indicate a lead where there might not be one, the onslaught of online bot farms pushing Trump conspiracies, and on and on and on. Elon Musk is paying people to vote for Trump and removing guardrails on Twitter so the algorithm can promote Trump without the users ability to block said content.

The fact you can't or won't admit to this shows you as someone to be easily manipulated or easily capitulated.