2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

[CFordUNC]

 

[HeelYeah2012]

I do not wish to make people feel hopeless. I just try to cull and share possibly relevant information as it becomes available.

I could discontinue the poll and turnout data posting here — it’s not like you can’t all find it easily enough if you want to do so.

Please keep posting it here. One of the main reasons I visit the board. No way you should feel a need to stop sharing great information just because it makes some posters nervous to read.

 

[gtyellowjacket]

I've read some articles recently which have pointed out that despite the ups and downs of polling, in general the polls have been remarkably stable over the past couple of months, and they have consistently given Kamala a lead. Of course I'm skeptical of polls in general this year, but I do think as we get closer to election day a lot of very anxious Democrats are freaking out (and not without reason, I might add, given that Trump might win). And my guess is that this anxiety will get worse for some people as we get closer to the election. The trauma of 2016 for Democrats is very real.

I think it really depends on the poll. I think at this point, everyone knows Kamala is very likely to win the popular vote. It's the swing states that matter.

 

[rodoheel]

At least since 1980 but they were overseas.

Election odds have existed that long? Or polymarket has existed that long?

 

[CFordUNC]

With all sincerely due respect, and with the genuine understanding and empathy that different folks are feeling different levels of stress and anxiety about the election, I think that some/many Democrats need to get a grip in these last two weeks of the election season. Literally nothing has changed in this race over the last several weeks. Borrowing and paraphrasing from Simon Rosenberg's blog:

• Harris has a 2-4 point lead in the national popular vote, is closer to 270 in the battleground states, and has far better favorables/unfavorables than Trump. She is better liked, and more likable, and that matters as people make up their mind in the closing days.
• The Democrats' financial and ground game advantages means more ads and direct voter contacts in the final days, making it far more likely that Democrats move a close election towards them than Republicans move it towards themselves. The early vote is running very strong for Democrats in MI, NE and WI, and is a dogfight in the remaining battlegrounds. Also note that the numbers in Michigan right now are only from Detroit. Early voting in the rest of the state does not begin until October 26. That includes Ann Arbor, including University of Michigan, and Michigan State in East Lansing.
• Since Dobbs it has been the Democratic Party who has been overperforming public polls, and Republicans/Trump who have been underperforming. What reason do we have to believe that the trend will be bucked?
• The GOP underperformance in battleground Senate and Goubernatorial races (especially Kari Lake and Mark Robinson) remains a problem for Trump and Republicans more broadly, as does the unprecedented efforts by Republicans and former Republicans to persuade Republicans to vote for Harris.
• Abortion ballot initiatives can and should give Democrats an extra boost in a few key places in red/swing states.
• Be aware of the magnitude of the 2024 red wave effort. It has far bigger than 2022 and includes new actors like Polymarket and Elon Musk. They are working hard to create the impression that the election is slipping away from Democrats when it isn’t. In the past few days they launched a major effort to drive down the national polling averages, which has moved things a bit. They would only be flooding the zone with their polls if they didn’t think they were winning the election.
• The Democratic candidate isn’t unraveling on camera every day, and ducking challenging interviews and debates. The Democratic candidate isn’t a rapist, fraudster, traitor and 34 times felon, and the oldest person to be the nominee of an American political party. The Democratic candidate, the Vice President of the United States of America, is running an exceptionally strong, winning, optimistic, campaign committed to opportunity and freedom for all.

The Democrats are winning the election, but have not won it yet. It is by no means a foregone conclusion that Harris will win. It is entirely possible that Trump could win. There is work to do between now and the closing of the polls on November 5. But in every way imaginable, you'd much, much, much rather be in the Democratic presidential ticket's position right now than the Republicans' ticket.

 

[WBroylesH]

With all sincerely due respect, and with the genuine understanding and empathy that different folks are feeling different levels of stress and anxiety about the election, I think that some/many Democrats need to get a grip in these last two weeks of the election season. Literally nothing has changed in this race over the last several weeks. Borrowing and paraphrasing from Simon Rosenberg's blog:

• Harris has a 2-4 point lead in the national popular vote, is closer to 270 in the battleground states, and has far better favorables/unfavorables than Trump. She is better liked, and more likable, and that matters as people make up their mind in the closing days.
• The Democrats' financial and ground game advantages means more ads and direct voter contacts in the final days, making it far more likely that Democrats move a close election towards them than Republicans move it towards themselves. The early vote is running very strong for Democrats in MI, NE and WI, and is a dogfight in the remaining battlegrounds. Also note that the numbers in Michigan right now are only from Detroit. Early voting in the rest of the state does not begin until October 26. That includes Ann Arbor, including University of Michigan, and Michigan State in East Lansing.
• Since Dobbs it has been the Democratic Party who has been overperforming public polls, and Republicans/Trump who have been underperforming. What reason do we have to believe that the trend will be bucked?
• The GOP underperformance in battleground Senate and Goubernatorial races (especially Kari Lake and Mark Robinson) remains a problem for Trump and Republicans more broadly, as does the unprecedented efforts by Republicans and former Republicans to persuade Republicans to vote for Harris.
• Abortion ballot initiatives can and should give Democrats an extra boost in a few key places in red/swing states.
• Be aware of the magnitude of the 2024 red wave effort. It has far bigger than 2022 and includes new actors like Polymarket and Elon Musk. They are working hard to create the impression that the election is slipping away from Democrats when it isn’t. In the past few days they launched a major effort to drive down the national polling averages, which has moved things a bit. They would only be flooding the zone with their polls if they didn’t think they were winning the election.
• The Democratic candidate isn’t unraveling on camera every day, and ducking challenging interviews and debates. The Democratic candidate isn’t a rapist, fraudster, traitor and 34 times felon, and the oldest person to be the nominee of an American political party. The Democratic candidate, the Vice President of the United States of America, is running an exceptionally strong, winning, optimistic, campaign committed to opportunity and freedom for all.

The Democrats are winning the election, but have not won it yet. It is by no means a foregone conclusion that Harris will win. It is entirely possible that Trump could win. There is work to do between now and the closing of the polls on November 5. But in every way imaginable, you'd much, much, much rather be in the Democratic presidential ticket's position right now than the Republicans' ticket.

All good points. One good run of "She's for they/them" ads can cancel that out.

 

[tallheel95]

I do not wish to make people feel hopeless. I just try to cull and share possibly relevant information as it becomes available.

I could discontinue the poll and turnout data posting here — it’s not like you can’t all find it easily enough if you want to do so.

Keep posting the polls if you will. But here's the truth -- this election is going to play out how it plays out, and the polls can't factually tell us what will or will not happen in November. This actually reminds me a lot of my experience when I used to follow weather modeling and forecasting a few years ago. People (meaning me, myself and I) would breathlessly wait for every model run during a potential snowstorm, thinking it would somehow tell me what the storm would bring... but the reality is that the weather just did what it wanted to, models be damned. Often the forecasts weren't even that accurate. You just can't know in advance every factor that will influence the outcome, or sample every bit of data. I came to understand the term "wishcasting" -- holding onto the one model from three days ago that says it's going to dump 10" of snow when climatology and common sense suggest a half an inch of cold rain. Lotta wishcasting going on with both sides here in this election. (But find me a poll that says that Kamala is up +4 and I will hug tight to that outcome!)

 

[CFordUNC]

All good points. One good run of "She's for they/them" ads can cancel that out.

I hear you for sure. It's possible, but I very highly doubt those types of ads- and I've seen them down here in Alabama where I live- move any voter who wasn't already going to vote for Trump. Normal people juat aren't moved by that kind of weirdness. Many Republicans are, because many Republicans aren't normal people.

 

[Calheel]

Well it seems like one of us is wearing a tin foil hat. Guess we'll find out in a couple of weeks who the crazy one is.

No, because the betting markets are highly volatile. They could swing to Kamala by election day and then both of you could claim victory. It would be a mistake to assume that betting markets will stay in Trump's favor through election day. They may, but that is far from a foregone conclusion.

 

[BillOfRights]

With all sincerely due respect, and with the genuine understanding and empathy that different folks are feeling different levels of stress and anxiety about the election, I think that some/many Democrats need to get a grip in these last two weeks of the election season. Literally nothing has changed in this race over the last several weeks. Borrowing and paraphrasing from Simon Rosenberg's blog:

• Harris has a 2-4 point lead in the national popular vote, is closer to 270 in the battleground states, and has far better favorables/unfavorables than Trump. She is better liked, and more likable, and that matters as people make up their mind in the closing days.
• The Democrats' financial and ground game advantages means more ads and direct voter contacts in the final days, making it far more likely that Democrats move a close election towards them than Republicans move it towards themselves. The early vote is running very strong for Democrats in MI, NE and WI, and is a dogfight in the remaining battlegrounds. Also note that the numbers in Michigan right now are only from Detroit. Early voting in the rest of the state does not begin until October 26. That includes Ann Arbor, including University of Michigan, and Michigan State in East Lansing.
• Since Dobbs it has been the Democratic Party who has been overperforming public polls, and Republicans/Trump who have been underperforming. What reason do we have to believe that the trend will be bucked?
• The GOP underperformance in battleground Senate and Goubernatorial races (especially Kari Lake and Mark Robinson) remains a problem for Trump and Republicans more broadly, as does the unprecedented efforts by Republicans and former Republicans to persuade Republicans to vote for Harris.
• Abortion ballot initiatives can and should give Democrats an extra boost in a few key places in red/swing states.
• Be aware of the magnitude of the 2024 red wave effort. It has far bigger than 2022 and includes new actors like Polymarket and Elon Musk. They are working hard to create the impression that the election is slipping away from Democrats when it isn’t. In the past few days they launched a major effort to drive down the national polling averages, which has moved things a bit. They would only be flooding the zone with their polls if they didn’t think they were winning the election.
• The Democratic candidate isn’t unraveling on camera every day, and ducking challenging interviews and debates. The Democratic candidate isn’t a rapist, fraudster, traitor and 34 times felon, and the oldest person to be the nominee of an American political party. The Democratic candidate, the Vice President of the United States of America, is running an exceptionally strong, winning, optimistic, campaign committed to opportunity and freedom for all.

The Democrats are winning the election, but have not won it yet. It is by no means a foregone conclusion that Harris will win. It is entirely possible that Trump could win. There is work to do between now and the closing of the polls on November 5. But in every way imaginable, you'd much, much, much rather be in the Democratic presidential ticket's position right now than the Republicans' ticket.

and yet, it's a coin toss.

 

[ole howard1]

A few things:

-- On Thursday I drove from South Carolina to Pennsylvania to pick up my daughter at Lehigh. We drove from there to Atlanta, where my former wife and our two kids moved in 2020, so that she could vote in person. Absentee voting should have been fine, but there was some discrepancy on her registration materials or something and we decided not to risk it. So she got to vote in Georgia yesterday and flew back to Pennsylvania today. Her big sister is a senior at UGA and voted, too.

They live in Decatur. It's so interesting being around there -- possibly the heaviest concentration of high-income, mostly white, progressives in the entire South. Harris-Walz signs everywhere. I wanted to feel hopeful. Then I drove back to South Carolina. It's sort of jarring.

-- I like Simon Rosenberg, and I think he makes a lot of sense. I worry a little that his angle is to capture the market for positivity. Not that I think he's full of it -- just leaning in that direction (he even did his "would rather be us than them" thing when Biden was still in the race...). In any case, I hope his assessment is on target.

-- I guess I could put his on the mental health thread someone started.....but I'll add here that I am a nervous wreck. And I'm angry. I see these Trumper people on social media -- and I admit that I sometimes interact with them -- and there are the full-blown hardcore MAGA types. And then there's those who are sort of your polite Republicans and are just determined to brush aside any awful thing Trump says. Trump lying constantly isn't bad; it's people making too much of his lies that's the problem. It's not a big deal that he suggests using the military against US citizens; what's a big deal is that Democrats say it's fascist. You know, it's all TDS. On and on. If he wins, then hopefully they're right -- Trump won't do the awful things he's talked about. But I believe their logic is incredibly dangerous, and it enrages me.

--I am planning to finally do some phone banking for Harris this week. Later than I should be.

 

[BillOfRights]

Do people really care about that garbage? It didn’t play well in 2022, but I suppose that could be because it was a midterm year and low propensity voters didn’t turn out. If the theory is that low propensity voters are more motivated by trans panic and more likely to vote in 24 than 22, then I guess it makes sense.

Idk, I just can’t imagine that being something that people care about.

It's something a LOT of people *say* they care about. I would guess that it's just a cover for their real objection, that's more likely bigotry, misogyny, etc, but the ads elicit an emotional response that makes them more likely to vote for trump.

 

[CFordUNC]

and yet, it's a coin toss.

At the risk of sounding like I’m smoking my own homemade batch of hopium, while I completely acknowledge that this is a close election, I personally do not think it is as much of a “coin toss” as seems to be the prevailing wisdom in many Democratic circles. That’s not to say that I don’t think it is close- I do- but rather to say that I don’t believe it to be a true 50/50 proposition as the term coin toss would imply. The Democrats have an enormous advantage in funding, grassroots GOTV efforts, better candidates, tons of enthusiasm, a booming economy, and historically unprecedentedly unpopular opponent. They may lose in the same way that a 7-10 point betting favorite may lose a college football game, but I think right now they are a pretty decent favorite to win.

 

[gtyellowjacket]

Election odds have existed that long? Or polymarket has existed that long?

There have been bookies that would take that bet in most large American cities for probably as long as we have had a country but there's no research on it.

Newsweek found some research back to 1980, but I don't think they cite the study in the article. You could probably Google it and find it if you want.

 

[BillOfRights]

At the risk of sounding like I’m smoking my own homemade batch of hopium, while I completely acknowledge that this is a close election, I personally do not think it is as much of a “coin toss” as seems to be the prevailing wisdom in many Democratic circles. That’s not to say that I don’t think it is close- I do- but rather to say that I don’t believe it to be a true 50/50 proposition as the term coin toss would imply. The Democrats have an enormous advantage in funding, grassroots GOTV efforts, better candidates, tons of enthusiasm, a booming economy, and historically unprecedentedly unpopular opponent. They may lose in the same way that a 7-10 point betting favorite may lose a college football game, but I think right now they are a pretty decent favorite to win.

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[gtyellowjacket]

No, because the betting markets are highly volatile. They could swing to Kamala by election day and then both of you could claim victory. It would be a mistake to assume that betting markets will stay in Trump's favor through election day. They may, but that is far from a foregone conclusion.

Very true. Extremely volatile.

 

[CFordUNC]

A few things:

-- On Thursday I drove from South Carolina to Pennsylvania to pick up my daughter at Lehigh. We drove from there to Atlanta, where my former wife and our two kids moved in 2020, so that she could vote in person. Absentee voting should have been fine, but there was some discrepancy on her registration materials or something and we decided not to risk it. So she got to vote in Georgia yesterday and flew back to Pennsylvania today. Her big sister is a senior at UGA and voted, too.

They live in Decatur. It's so interesting being around there -- possibly the heaviest concentration of high-income, mostly white, progressives in the entire South. Harris-Walz signs everywhere. I wanted to feel hopeful. Then I drove back to South Carolina. It's sort of jarring.

-- I like Simon Rosenberg, and I think he makes a lot of sense. I worry a little that his angle is to capture the market for positivity. Not that I think he's full of it -- just leaning in that direction (he even did his "would rather be us than them" thing when Biden was still in the race...). In any case, I hope his assessment is on target.

-- I guess I could put his on the mental health thread someone started.....but I'll add here that I am a nervous wreck. And I'm angry. I see these Trumper people on social media -- and I admit that I sometimes interact with them -- and there are the full-blown hardcore MAGA types. And then there's those who are sort of your polite Republicans and are just determined to brush aside any awful thing Trump says. Trump lying constantly isn't bad; it's people making too much of his lies that's the problem. It's not a big deal that he suggests using the military against US citizens; what's a big deal is that Democrats say it's fascist. You know, it's all TDS. On and on. If he wins, then hopefully they're right -- Trump won't do the awful things he's talked about. But I believe their logic is incredibly dangerous, and it enrages me.

--I am planning to finally do some phone banking for Harris this week. Later than I should be.

For what it’s worth, in the time period between the disastrous debate performance on June 27 and Biden officially dropping out of the race on July 21, Simon Rosenberg’s tune had changed precipitously from the pre-debate stance of “I’d much rather be us than them” to “well, we have a significant uphill climb now, and essentially the only two things we have going in our favor is that they are running a historically awful and unpopular candidate, and we have a strong track record to run on from the last three years.” Only once Biden dropped out of the race and the first couple of weeks that Harris came out of the gates like a gangbuster, did Simon resume his “I would much rather be us than them” mantra.

 

[CFordUNC]

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I know. Clearly I’m not someone who is putting much stock in or staking my emotions on polling and forecasts, but rather focusing on fundamentals and intangibles. Not saying that my method is right or wrong versus yours or others’, just that it’s what I’m doing.

 

[Granville]

I’m not sure that’s exactly right. I think Trump may be benefitting a bit from movement away from Stein, etc., which was always inevitable. The real undecideds won’t decide for another couple of weeks, and many of them will just not vote. There’s not much reason to think they’ll break for Trump. And as long as he stays around 47% or less, Kamala’s in very good shape.

I do not wish to make people feel hopeless. I just try to cull and share possibly relevant information as it becomes available.

I could discontinue the poll and turnout data posting here — it’s not like you can’t all find it easily enough if you want to do so.

Please continue to post the polls.

 

[dukeman92]

1. Dems didn't outperform polls, to my knowledge. They outperformed expectations.

They outperformed polls.