2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

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HeelInTheOzarks said:
Now these make sense but let’s wait until they’re cancelled out by a bunch of no name polls showing Trump +4 in Michigan while getting 35% of the black vote.
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Me = "OK these are solid polls and make sense...Harris team has said a long time they think Arizona is a couple of cycles from being consistently bluer"

Also me = "OMG NC WTF????"
 
gtyellowjacket said:
I'm simply pointing out that betting markets are typically better than polls but I'd also say that they're not perfect.
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Could you provide a comparison of polls vs. betting markets for the years you're claiming the betting markets were better than the polling? I'm kinda thinking the polling has had a decent track record for many presidential elections since 1980, but I will patiently wait for your side by side comparison, which clearly you have seen or else you wouldn't be making the claim that betting markets are better than polls. Thanks in advance..
 
hedge said:
Could you provide a comparison of polls vs. betting markets for the years you're claiming the betting markets were better than the polling? I'm kinda thinking the polling has had a decent track record for many presidential elections since 1980, but I will patiently wait for your side by side comparison, which clearly you have seen or else you wouldn't be making the claim that betting markets are better than polls. Thanks in advance..
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I'm happy to put that that on the list of work I'm not going to be doing for people that really don't want the answer or they would just Google it themselves. I appreciate you patiently waiting for it.
 
hedge said:
Could you provide a comparison of polls vs. betting markets for the years you're claiming the betting markets were better than the polling? I'm kinda thinking the polling has had a decent track record for many presidential elections since 1980, but I will patiently wait for your side by side comparison, which clearly you have seen or else you wouldn't be making the claim that betting markets are better than polls. Thanks in advance..
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Trump was 8 to 1 in 2016. There were people putting their entire bankroll on Hillary thinking it was free money. I mean they had to put up like $1000 to win $150 but they thought there was no way she could lose so they did it. Lots of people went broke.
 
theel4life said:
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I like the result but they really shouldn't be releasing that data. It's likely going to suppress votes of the trailing party. And Democrats will be trailing in some of these races at some point.
News organizations have been very responsible about not releasing exit poll data until the polls close for this very reason.
 




A lot of Floridians apparently plan to vote FOR reproductive rights and FOR Trump (who announced that he is voting against reproductive rights amendment — key when the reproductive rights measure is on the razors edge of the 60% minimum approval to be added to the Florida Constitution)
 
nycfan said:




A lot of Floridians apparently plan to vote FOR reproductive rights and FOR Trump (who announced that he is voting against reproductive rights amendment — key when the reproductive rights measure is on the razors edge of the 60% minimum approval to be added to the Florida Constitution)
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I dont belive Bouzy on Florida. And I dont believe Trump is winning it by 10 points either
 
The only saving grace I have right now for Kamala is that hopefully more Pubs will vote dem this election than 2020.
 
nycfan said:




A lot of Floridians apparently plan to vote FOR reproductive rights and FOR Trump (who announced that he is voting against reproductive rights amendment — key when the reproductive rights measure is on the razors edge of the 60% minimum approval to be added to the Florida Constitution)
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I’ve posted before on this board and the old ZZLP that one of my fears is that these ballot measures addressing abortion would make a number of pro-choice voters who otherwise lean Republican feel okay about voting for Trump (or voting Republican in general) because they feel they can get the best both worlds; the candidate they most prefer and protections for reproductive rights. It’s illogical, but that doesn’t stop people from thinking that way. They believe they can have their cake and eat it too.
 
theel4life said:
The only saving grace I have right now for Kamala is that hopefully more Pubs will vote dem this election than 2020.
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Man, with all due respect, for your own mental health well-being and sanity, you really should consider unplugging completely from the news and from social media for the next two weeks. I cannot imagine that kind of emotional roller coaster is healthy for you. This race has not changed in weeks. It’s a close election in which Harris is a pretty decent favorite – not a guarantee by any means, but a decent favorite with almost all fundamentals and intangibles on her side. Democrats have been turning out in droves in every election since 2016 with Trump or Trumpism on the ballot- why do you think this is going to be any different?
 
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