Back to turnout. So far, turnout looks good for liberals, I think. Here are the three points that stand out to me:
1. Turnout among black voters is so far at 12.5%; among whites it's 14.5%. In 2020, white voters turned out 11 points more than black voters (79-68). I don't think it's useful to compare early returns with early returns in 2020 because of the pandemic.
2. Turnout among women and men are running about equal, with women slightly in the lead. In 2020, women turned out about 3 points better than men. But there are so many more female voters. In 2020, women cast 50.1% of the votes against 42% of men (with 8% "undesignated" -- I'm going to guess that a big chunk of undesignated are trans and God I hope they are voting for Kamala). IOW, it's better in NC to be winning with women.
3. Turnout among Dems so far is slightly better than Pubs. Since there are more registered Dems than Pubs, that leads to a 20K lead for Dems at the moment. And independents are turning out considerably worse than either (only 10%).
That said, we don't know how many of those Dems are votes for Trump. My guess is that if Trump is doing better with black voters, he's doing better with Dem voters than in the past. And of course indies are still the biggest overall group.
So from a top-level perspective, it seems to me that early voting is favoring Kamala ever so slightly -- but it's also true that these numbers are pretty close to meaningless. I've said they were completely meaningless; with over 13% turnout already, they now have a non-zero salience in my view. But not very much salience.