2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

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CFordUNC said:


Hopefully this rings true!
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It's not true. Both candidates should be spending a lot of time in NC. It's the second most likely tipping point state. Remember: Trump probably wins if he wins either MI or WI, but not if he loses NC. So let's suppose he has a 60% of winning each of those states. He still needs to be in NC!! And Kamala needs to be all three places because she needs at least two of them.

That is, assuming she loses GA and AZ. But neither of those states is looking great right now. I still have hope in both places, but Biden barely won in those places and they are traditionally R states. You'd expect there to be vote fluctuations, and in a 2 point Trump state, a 1 point Biden victory can happen through turnout effects or issue specificity. The baseline, though, is a slight R lean.

It's like if you have Lebron and AD on your team and they are healthy, that's a great foundation but you can't get wiped out at the other three positions.
 
As time wears on, I just have a sinking feeling that this isn't going to break our way. With Fox News and X in Trump's corner (and all the mis/disinformation that comes with those platforms), plus a woman candidate... I just don't see how this is going to end well.
 
superrific said:
So here's the thing. You and I can't imagine that. In related news, we would never consider voting for Trump.

I mean, I say the same thing quite often. "I can't imagine that doing a photo op at McD is going to improve his standing with voters." So I'm not chiding you. It's how we operate as humans. We take our own intuitions and perspectives; if we are open-minded and empathetic, we try to inform those perspectives with the thought processes of other people to understand how they think and feel, and then we make our decisions. But always, we can only really know our own minds. Everything else is an attempt at reconstruction, or perhaps modeling if you'd like to think along those terms.

The last few years of American politics has taught me that I just don't understand Trump voters at all. I cannot understand what goes on in their minds. The things that should make them doubt their fealty -- you know, things like Trump being indicted and convicted and begging the Supreme Court for immunity to his non-stop firehose of lies -- turn out to strengthen their devotion to that cause. Can you imagine wanting to vote for your guy even more because he was indicted under RICO to steal the election?

So while I still sometimes predict whether a Trump stunt will end up helping Trump, the reality is that liberals are bad prognosticators of MAGA sentiment.
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Let me speak to just one part of this. I definitely think that the indictments have only further polarized Trump in both directions - as in, they’ve made people who hate him even more repulsed by him, while at the same time strengthening the loyalty to him from his supporters.

As someone who has a lot of Trump supporters in my circle, this makes sense to me. The main appeal of Trump is that he’s a Washington outsider who the folks in the “swamp” cannot stand, and they’ll do anything to make him go away. So Trump being prosecuted for these crimes (crimes he would never be prosecuted for unless he was running for reelection) is only going to make his supporters double down and support him more. The whole thing reinforces their perception that he’s a political outsider and that the political machine has no bottom when it comes to trying to get rid of him.

Basically, Trump’s whole legal mess encourages both his supporters and his haters to strengthen their conviction in how they feel about him.
 
Tom Bonier interview from 4 days ago. His firm gets its voter registration data and early voting data from close relationships with the DNC and the individual state parties. He’s someone to pay attention to.

Bonier joins at 13:30
Ruben Gallego (senate AZ) at 43 mins

 
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Duke Mu said:
Skewed toward white men...

Trump's hurricane bump caused by disinformation coupled with reduced Kamala and Walz visibility is being undermined by his continued instability and Kamala's surge in rallies and interviews..
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Hurricane bump?? Lol
 
tallheel95 said:
As time wears on, I just have a sinking feeling that this isn't going to break our way. With Fox News and X in Trump's corner (and all the mis/disinformation that comes with those platforms), plus a woman candidate... I just don't see how this is going to end well.
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You sound like me
 
My wife and I welcomed a new baby girl so I’ve been stretched a little thin and not following the race as closely. Saw a lot of doomsday posts on this thread so I was looking around some, and I’ll admit I didn’t realize that Trump is ahead in the RCP average for every single swing state.

Georgia: Trump +1.8%
Arizona: Trump +1.6%
Michigan: Trump +1.2%
Nevada: Trump +0.8%
Pennsylvania: Trump +0.8%
North Carolina: Trump +0.5%
Wisconsin: Trump +0.2%

Question for the board - who wins the election if Trump wins Georgia, Arizona, North Carolina and Pennsylvania but Harris wins Michigan, Nevada, and Wisconsin? Would Pennsylvania be the tipping point state in that fact pattern and thus Trump would win?
 
tallheel95 said:
As time wears on, I just have a sinking feeling that this isn't going to break our way. With Fox News and X in Trump's corner (and all the mis/disinformation that comes with those platforms), plus a woman candidate... I just don't see how this is going to end well.
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It's just because you think it shouldn't be close. And it shouldn't. So the fact it's not even a sure thing makes it really really depressing.

But that's not the same thing as her not having a great shot to win
 
HeelYeah2012 said:
My wife and I welcomed a new baby girl so I’ve been stretched a little thin and not following the race as closely. Saw a lot of doomsday posts on this thread so I was looking around some, and I’ll admit I didn’t realize that Trump is ahead in the RCP average for every single swing state.

Georgia: Trump +1.8%
Arizona: Trump +1.6%
Michigan: Trump +1.2%
Nevada: Trump +0.8%
Pennsylvania: Trump +0.8%
North Carolina: Trump +0.5%
Wisconsin: Trump +0.2%

Question for the board - who wins the election if Trump wins Georgia, Arizona, North Carolina and Pennsylvania but Harris wins Michigan, Nevada, and Wisconsin? Would Pennsylvania be the tipping point state in that fact pattern and thus Trump would win?
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To be fair, there's only like two people who are posting doomsday stuff. The rest of us are as confident as ever :cool:. But yeah, Pennsylvania is the tipping point in the scenario you described. It's the difference in a 270-268 Democratic win and a 287-251 Republican win.
 
CFordUNC said:
To be fair, there's only like two people who are posting doomsday stuff. The rest of us are as confident as ever :cool:. But yeah, Pennsylvania is the tipping point in the scenario you described. It's the difference in a 270-268 Democratic win and a 287-251 Republican win.
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Gotcha. So basically if Trump wins the Sun Belt states, he only needs one of the blue wall states to win the election. Then where it gets complicated is if Trump loses a sun belt state or two but wins a blue wall state or two. I need to play around more with that “270 to win” website.

So with Trump leading in the consensus polling, I guess your confidence comes from some combo of a) some biased Republican polls are included in RCP, and b) maybe the pollsters as a whole have over corrected after underestimating Trump in 2016 and 2020?

I read this board so that I don’t find myself in an echo chamber on the right, but now I’m wondering if by getting a good portion of my political news here it’s caused me to be in an echo chamber of the left and now I’ve been underestimating Trump’s chances too much.
 
CFordUNC said:
To be fair, there's only like two people who are posting doomsday stuff. The rest of us are as confident as ever :cool:. But yeah, Pennsylvania is the tipping point in the scenario you described. It's the difference in a 270-268 Democratic win and a 287-251 Republican win.
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Flipping either NC or GA would also change the winner in that scenario.
 
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