2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

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A few things:

-- On Thursday I drove from South Carolina to Pennsylvania to pick up my daughter at Lehigh. We drove from there to Atlanta, where my former wife and our two kids moved in 2020, so that she could vote in person. Absentee voting should have been fine, but there was some discrepancy on her registration materials or something and we decided not to risk it. So she got to vote in Georgia yesterday and flew back to Pennsylvania today. Her big sister is a senior at UGA and voted, too.

They live in Decatur. It's so interesting being around there -- possibly the heaviest concentration of high-income, mostly white, progressives in the entire South. Harris-Walz signs everywhere. I wanted to feel hopeful. Then I drove back to South Carolina. It's sort of jarring.

-- I like Simon Rosenberg, and I think he makes a lot of sense. I worry a little that his angle is to capture the market for positivity. Not that I think he's full of it -- just leaning in that direction (he even did his "would rather be us than them" thing when Biden was still in the race...). In any case, I hope his assessment is on target.

-- I guess I could put his on the mental health thread someone started.....but I'll add here that I am a nervous wreck. And I'm angry. I see these Trumper people on social media -- and I admit that I sometimes interact with them -- and there are the full-blown hardcore MAGA types. And then there's those who are sort of your polite Republicans and are just determined to brush aside any awful thing Trump says. Trump lying constantly isn't bad; it's people making too much of his lies that's the problem. It's not a big deal that he suggests using the military against US citizens; what's a big deal is that Democrats say it's fascist. You know, it's all TDS. On and on. If he wins, then hopefully they're right -- Trump won't do the awful things he's talked about. But I believe their logic is incredibly dangerous, and it enrages me.

--I am planning to finally do some phone banking for Harris this week. Later than I should be.
 
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Do people really care about that garbage? It didn’t play well in 2022, but I suppose that could be because it was a midterm year and low propensity voters didn’t turn out. If the theory is that low propensity voters are more motivated by trans panic and more likely to vote in 24 than 22, then I guess it makes sense.

Idk, I just can’t imagine that being something that people care about.
It's something a LOT of people *say* they care about. I would guess that it's just a cover for their real objection, that's more likely bigotry, misogyny, etc, but the ads elicit an emotional response that makes them more likely to vote for trump.
 
and yet, it's a coin toss.
At the risk of sounding like I’m smoking my own homemade batch of hopium, while I completely acknowledge that this is a close election, I personally do not think it is as much of a “coin toss” as seems to be the prevailing wisdom in many Democratic circles. That’s not to say that I don’t think it is close- I do- but rather to say that I don’t believe it to be a true 50/50 proposition as the term coin toss would imply. The Democrats have an enormous advantage in funding, grassroots GOTV efforts, better candidates, tons of enthusiasm, a booming economy, and historically unprecedentedly unpopular opponent. They may lose in the same way that a 7-10 point betting favorite may lose a college football game, but I think right now they are a pretty decent favorite to win.
 
Election odds have existed that long? Or polymarket has existed that long?
There have been bookies that would take that bet in most large American cities for probably as long as we have had a country but there's no research on it.

Newsweek found some research back to 1980, but I don't think they cite the study in the article. You could probably Google it and find it if you want.
 
At the risk of sounding like I’m smoking my own homemade batch of hopium, while I completely acknowledge that this is a close election, I personally do not think it is as much of a “coin toss” as seems to be the prevailing wisdom in many Democratic circles. That’s not to say that I don’t think it is close- I do- but rather to say that I don’t believe it to be a true 50/50 proposition as the term coin toss would imply. The Democrats have an enormous advantage in funding, grassroots GOTV efforts, better candidates, tons of enthusiasm, a booming economy, and historically unprecedentedly unpopular opponent. They may lose in the same way that a 7-10 point betting favorite may lose a college football game, but I think right now they are a pretty decent favorite to win.

 
No, because the betting markets are highly volatile. They could swing to Kamala by election day and then both of you could claim victory. It would be a mistake to assume that betting markets will stay in Trump's favor through election day. They may, but that is far from a foregone conclusion.
Very true. Extremely volatile.
 
A few things:

-- On Thursday I drove from South Carolina to Pennsylvania to pick up my daughter at Lehigh. We drove from there to Atlanta, where my former wife and our two kids moved in 2020, so that she could vote in person. Absentee voting should have been fine, but there was some discrepancy on her registration materials or something and we decided not to risk it. So she got to vote in Georgia yesterday and flew back to Pennsylvania today. Her big sister is a senior at UGA and voted, too.

They live in Decatur. It's so interesting being around there -- possibly the heaviest concentration of high-income, mostly white, progressives in the entire South. Harris-Walz signs everywhere. I wanted to feel hopeful. Then I drove back to South Carolina. It's sort of jarring.

-- I like Simon Rosenberg, and I think he makes a lot of sense. I worry a little that his angle is to capture the market for positivity. Not that I think he's full of it -- just leaning in that direction (he even did his "would rather be us than them" thing when Biden was still in the race...). In any case, I hope his assessment is on target.

-- I guess I could put his on the mental health thread someone started.....but I'll add here that I am a nervous wreck. And I'm angry. I see these Trumper people on social media -- and I admit that I sometimes interact with them -- and there are the full-blown hardcore MAGA types. And then there's those who are sort of your polite Republicans and are just determined to brush aside any awful thing Trump says. Trump lying constantly isn't bad; it's people making too much of his lies that's the problem. It's not a big deal that he suggests using the military against US citizens; what's a big deal is that Democrats say it's fascist. You know, it's all TDS. On and on. If he wins, then hopefully they're right -- Trump won't do the awful things he's talked about. But I believe their logic is incredibly dangerous, and it enrages me.

--I am planning to finally do some phone banking for Harris this week. Later than I should be.
For what it’s worth, in the time period between the disastrous debate performance on June 27 and Biden officially dropping out of the race on July 21, Simon Rosenberg’s tune had changed precipitously from the pre-debate stance of “I’d much rather be us than them” to “well, we have a significant uphill climb now, and essentially the only two things we have going in our favor is that they are running a historically awful and unpopular candidate, and we have a strong track record to run on from the last three years.” Only once Biden dropped out of the race and the first couple of weeks that Harris came out of the gates like a gangbuster, did Simon resume his “I would much rather be us than them” mantra.
 

I know. Clearly I’m not someone who is putting much stock in or staking my emotions on polling and forecasts, but rather focusing on fundamentals and intangibles. Not saying that my method is right or wrong versus yours or others’, just that it’s what I’m doing.
 
I’m not sure that’s exactly right. I think Trump may be benefitting a bit from movement away from Stein, etc., which was always inevitable. The real undecideds won’t decide for another couple of weeks, and many of them will just not vote. There’s not much reason to think they’ll break for Trump. And as long as he stays around 47% or less, Kamala’s in very good shape.

I do not wish to make people feel hopeless. I just try to cull and share possibly relevant information as it becomes available.

I could discontinue the poll and turnout data posting here — it’s not like you can’t all find it easily enough if you want to do so.
Please continue to post the polls.
 
Everything he says makes sense in a non-trump election, but when trump is on the ballot, regular-world data, indicators, and experience are irrelevant. If polls had Harris up 10 points, I would still be worried. Silent-trump voters, misogyny, racism, and disinformation are factors that I haven't seen captured or represented. Biden was up in the polls, won the popular vote by 4.4%, and it was still a squeaker. I pray I'm wrong and you and McKinnon are right.
Trump voters are anything but silent.

If anything I suspect there are a lot of secret Kamala voters out there. They are women in red districts too afraid to tell their husbands, friends, or congregation they are voting for Harris.
 
Trump voters are anything but silent.

If anything I suspect there are a lot of secret Kamala voters out there. They are women in red districts too afraid to tell their husbands, friends, or congregation they are voting for Harris.
God I hope so. This aspect, combined with Trump’s effort to turn out low propensity male voters hopefully falling flat on its face, could result in enough of a hidden Harris advantage on Election Day.
 
I hear you for sure. It's possible, but I very highly doubt those types of ads- and I've seen them down here in Alabama where I live- move any voter who wasn't already going to vote for Trump. Normal people juat aren't moved by that kind of weirdness. Many Republicans are, because many Republicans aren't normal people.

They're not going to change many minds, but the point is to trigger a visceral reaction that prompts your average apathetic redneck to get off his ass and vote against her.
 
They're not going to change many minds, but the point is to trigger a visceral reaction that prompts your average apathetic redneck to get off his ass and vote against her.
Yeah, I definitely hear you. Entirely possible y’all are right and I am wrong. I just figure anyone so moved by that type of advertisement probably wasn’t that apathetic to begin with. I can definitely see where you’re coming from that the ad would be targeted to try to get low probability voters to the polls. I guess I’m just more skeptical that it would actually be meaningfully impactful.
 
Oh, I see the problem. You're looking at the shit aggregator they call RCP. Look at a real site like 538, which is far less affected by the red wave polls.

Oh I see the problem. You think you’re smarter than everyone else and you’re incapable of having a decent conversation because you’re too busy sniffing your own farts.

Sniff away, Superman.
 
Do people really care about that garbage? It didn’t play well in 2022, but I suppose that could be because it was a midterm year and low propensity voters didn’t turn out. If the theory is that low propensity voters are more motivated by trans panic and more likely to vote in 24 than 22, then I guess it makes sense.

Idk, I just can’t imagine that being something that people care about.
Just as age can be a blinding liability, so can youth. Yes, our sweet summer child of the board...mean spirited people (of which there are a LOT) are absolutely motivated by that garbage.

There are plenty of "good people" who absolutely love to find some group punching bag in every election. They are easily manipulated and vote their anger.
 
Oh I see the problem. You think you’re smarter than everyone else and you’re incapable of having a decent conversation because you’re too busy sniffing your own farts.

Sniff away, Superman.
I apologize for my tone, which was less aimed at you and more at the guy who you linked. Also, my boys were starting to fight with each other.

But I don't know what any of that has to do with the simple fact that RCP has long been established as a shit aggregator. The people who run these red wave polls do it to fuck with RCP. It works on them.
 
I apologize for my tone, which was less aimed at you and more at the guy who you linked. Also, my boys were starting to fight with each other.

But I don't know what any of that has to do with the simple fact that RCP has long been established as a shit aggregator. The people who run these red wave polls do it to fuck with RCP. It works on them.
RCP used to be a great resource. Started getting bad. Now it's just RW smut polls
 
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