2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

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Mulberry Heel said:
I've said this before and I'll say it again - I think the trauma of Trump's 2016 upset victory is greatly underestimated when it comes to its effects on many Democrats. It's very easy to worry and be anxious about each election with Trump at the top of the ballot, because he won once and came too damn close to winning in 2020, even after his shitty presidency and horribly bungled response to covid. I think many Democrats are having flashbacks and nightmares to 2016 happening all over again, and with the consequences to everyone if he wins, much of the anxiety is justified, imo.
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yeah, i know we've talked about it a lot on this board and its a huge topic in all of my group chats and texts with friends and family, too.

the PTSD from 2016 is real.
 
aGDevil2k said:
Not if they come out in force early versus on election day
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I get it. But Ralston is the gold standard in NV journalism. I took him to be saying that the rural turnout is exceedingly high period, not just for early voting. If I was reading this from some no-name about another state it wouldn't really bother me.
 
I'll put this in two threads... I have a theory about this election... no idea if it's true. In 2016, there were A LOT of voters (women in particular) who said they were voting for Hillary... but then voted Trump when they were privately in the voting box. The idea being that they did not want to explain to their friends and family why they were voting Trump.

I think the opposite will happen this election. Because the topic has become so toxic, I think a lot of people (women in particular) in MAGA families and communities will vote against Trump when they get in the ballot box... but will claim to have voted for him if asked, so they don't have to deal with the backlash.
 
NYCBlueBlood said:
I'll put this in two threads... I have a theory about this election... no idea if it's true. In 2016, there were A LOT of voters (women in particular) who said they were voting for Hillary... but then voted Trump when they were privately in the voting box. The idea being that they did not want to explain to their friends and family why they were voting Trump.

I think the opposite will happen this election. Because the topic has become so toxic, I think a lot of people (women in particular) in MAGA families and communities will vote against Trump when they get in the ballot box... but will claim to have voted for him if asked, so they don't have to deal with the backlash.
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The problem with this is that it's invisible, so it can't be counted on. The campaign needs to pretend things like this don't exist.
 
superrific said:
I get it. But Ralston is the gold standard in NV journalism. I took him to be saying that the rural turnout is exceedingly high period, not just for early voting. If I was reading this from some no-name about another state it wouldn't really bother me.
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No he is saying it's high for early vote. He was commenting later in his blog that if this cannibalizes the EDay vote then it's just a big shift in timing, not result.
 
aGDevil2k said:
No he is saying it's high for early vote. He was commenting later in his blog that if this cannibalizes the EDay vote then it's just a big shift in timing, not result.
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I would also think that Nevada’s Election Day vote will trend more Democratic than other areas of the country.

If you think about it, I’d imagine a lot of the rural Republican voting pop in NV leans older. That could be why they’re early voting. OTOH, Dem leaning union voters in LV will probably vote on Election Day.
 
Yeah. The GOP is pushing early vote this year. First time in 20 years, at least (and given early vote wasnt as big before that, maybe first time ever). But they are really pushing it. And so the whole "red surge" on EDay is likely a thing of the past.
 
aGDevil2k said:
No he is saying it's high for early vote. He was commenting later in his blog that if this cannibalizes the EDay vote then it's just a big shift in timing, not result.
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OK. I was reading it on my phone and that was not a pleasant experience.
 
nycfan said:
Blue-leaning pollster historically

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Interesting that their sample includes recalled 2020 vote but doesn't weight on that basis. So they have a sample of voters that voted 49-48 FOR TRUMP in 2020 and they get this result. It's not clear if it was weighting by education.
 
quakerdevil said:
The problem with this is that it's invisible, so it can't be counted on. The campaign needs to pretend things like this don't exist.
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Agree 100%, but I truly think this election will be the inverse of 2016... where polls significantly over estimate Trump.
 


Hopefully we’ll see urban turnout % catch-up and surpass rural turn-out percentages in swing states before early voting wraps.
 
nycfan said:


Hopefully we’ll see urban turnout % catch-up and surpass rural turn-out percentages in swing states before early voting wraps.
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I really, really wish people would stop comparing anything to the sui generis 2020 election. It was exceptional for at least three reasons:

A. the pandemic, duh
B. A lot of new voting rules and expanded access for voting by mail meant that voters weren't familiar with applicable procedures to a degree that I can't remember;
C. One of the two major party candidates was actively telling its supporters to vote later than they otherwise would have.

No comparison to 2020 turnout is going to be informative.
 
superrific said:
I really, really wish people would stop comparing anything to the sui generis 2020 election. It was exceptional for at least three reasons:

A. the pandemic, duh
B. A lot of new voting rules and expanded access for voting by mail meant that voters weren't familiar with applicable procedures to a degree that I can't remember;
C. One of the two major party candidates was actively telling its supporters to vote later than they otherwise would have.

No comparison to 2020 turnout is going to be informative.
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Agree. There's extremely little to be gleaned from early voting numbers this cycle.
 
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