2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

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treblkickd said:
. It therefore does not make sense to average together results from multiple election cycles or different elections to draw conclusions about how accurate models are likely to be in future elections. It's kind of like if you drove three entirely different car models over the course of your life and you averaged your lifetime gas mileage, and then went and bought a new car and expected that lifetime average gas mileage to accurately predict the gas mileage of your new car. Not a perfect analogy but I think it captures the gist of the problem.
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In fairness, Silver accounted for that. But ultimately his message was more like, "see, we know what we're doing!" rather than "we're going to be right next time." As you know, those are different statements.

Also, Nate was trying to rehab his image as the guy who got 2016 all wrong -- which was really unfair because he was more right than the conventional wisdom and most other models. And specifically, he wanted people to get the message: hey, when we say something is 70% likely to happen, we're usually right about that and remember 70<100. So it never really bothered me that his model self-evaluation was less than theoretically rigorous and possibly dubious. We live in dubious world.

But yes, these forecasting models are really hard to evaluate.
 
CFordUNC said:
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I've said this before and I'll say it again - I think the trauma of Trump's 2016 upset victory is greatly underestimated when it comes to its effects on many Democrats. It's very easy to worry and be anxious about each election with Trump at the top of the ballot, because he won once and came too damn close to winning in 2020, even after his shitty presidency and horribly bungled response to covid. I think many Democrats are having flashbacks and nightmares to 2016 happening all over again, and with the consequences to everyone if he wins, much of the anxiety is justified, imo.
 
This Nevada data has me a little worried. Not because I care all that much about NV, but because of the high rural turnout. Could be just Nevada, but if the rurals come out in force, it could be a long night.
 
The fact is, she has to sweep the three mid western states. That's a high, high lift. No positive or negative data points change that lift.
 
aGDevil2k said:
Stop reacting to party turnout in early voting!

The GOP is pushing it this year....so dont expect similar "D early, R on E Day" patterns. It may be very very very very different now and in the future.
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Even Trump has said he’s voting early this year.
 
I still think that we're going to find that the undeclared voters will be the ones voting for a biracial woman instead of some supposedly hidden group ashamed to admit a preference for Trump. Most of those are rampantly proud of their stupidity these days.
 
The Nevada thing is weird to me. Don't Clark and Washoe counties outnumber the rest of the state several times over? So a rural "firewall" would only be possible if Trump has better-than-expected margins in the urban areas.
 
WSJ National poll flips from Harris + 2 in late August to Trump +2 (RV)

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nycfan said:
WSJ National poll flips from Harris + 2 in late August to Trump +2 (RV)

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Ah there's the poll. I was hearing it get ripped on quality last night so I wondered what it was.

Also a 45-47, no matter who, less than 2 weeks out, is shit. There are not 8% undecided or voting for the pathetic 3rds. And anything with her disapproval way higher than his? ok
 
Geisterfahrer said:
Seems pretty silly and meaningless to focus on which party has the lead when independents make up nearly a full third of those casting votes.
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I would be curious to see overall trends of voter registration by county. A lot of ancestral Dems in NC despite Republicans winning the presidency every cycle except '08

Comparing to 2020 is a fool's errand, but do hope the enthusiasm shows up for Dems right through election day.
 
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