2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

[nycfan]

 

[UNCBAdookJD]

It only takes one screw up in the blue wall states to throw this election. Noted on Morning Joe, there was some concern about the transgender ad Trump is using full force in those states and almost no push back from Harris Campaign. Shades of Swift boating?

But, in this case you have to wonder why not much push back? Could it be a reluctance to butt heads with a Dem special interest group that the push back would cause?

I think the strategy is don’t push back to avoid pissing off anyone. Pro-transgender folks would be motivated to vote Harris just by the Trump ad and pushing back risks alienating Anti-transgender folks who are otherwise open to voting to Harris due to other, more important issues. Either way transgender rights ranks very low on priorities for voters, so elevating its importance by responding isn’t likely to be very helpful and may hurt. Better to address issues voters care more about.

 

[UNCBAdookJD]

Willie Horton ad was stupid ass too. Dems big poll lead disappeared quick. No Dem response.

Crime scares the shit out of people. While the same is true of some people for transgender, most people don’t even know someone transgender and don’t really care one way or the other.

 

[dukeman92]

I hate for Harris to lose any state that is contested, but she is going to lose some. But Arizona is particularly problematic because a Trump win there might drag Kari Lake into the US Senate. But right now, I think, it is Trump +1 over Harris and Gallego +8 over Lake. I guess the people of Arizona have first-hand knowledge of how nuts Lake is.

I think the final map will look something like this. She's gonna blow him out.

 

[1moretimeagain]

Gender gap of +3 in NC is bad for Harris as that is smaller than the gender gap in NC in the 2020 election. And -3 in Nevada is devastating for her chances there. Georgia at +9 is slightly below 2020 … but those numbers are very healthy in the Blue Wall.

Dems should’ve convinced a couple of the big video game franchises to have a new release on Nov 4.

 

[1moretimeagain]

there go the evil dems controlling the weather again!

Oh wouldn’t that be a great piece of evidence to add to the conspiracy theory!

 

[heelslegup]

Kamala would not be in Texas today if David Plouffe thought she was tied or behind.

 

[heel17]

I think the final map will look something like this. She's gonna blow him out.

As much as I love it, no way no how is she flipping FL. Desantis has turned it into a MAGA theme park

 

[nycfan]

 

[aGDevil2k]

I hate him so fucking much.

 

[uncjhodges]

I hate him so fucking much.

You should follow realcarlallen. He’s a statistician and he’s been making fun of nate all week

 

[CFordUNC]

I hate him so fucking much.

He's like if gtyellowjacket had a Twitter platform.

 

[CallMeTyler]

Okay Nate ...

 

[Wheels81]

Color me shocked, absolutely shocked, that the final NYT poll is tied. Wonder what incentive they have for that.

I’m at the point where I’m just saying fuck it until Election Day. None of these pollsters know what the turnout is going to be. They’re shooting in the dark and hoping they finally got it right this year.

If they say it’s a toss up, they can say they got it right regardless of the outcome.

 

[rodoheel]

Perhaps more accurately "effective Republican lies about the economy are costing Harris" given that the economy itself is actually very good

 

[DBS]

If they say it’s a toss up, they can say they got it right regardless of the outcome.

They would only be right if it's a close result. If you predict a toss up and the result is one sided then they couldn't say they 'got it right.'

 

[finesse]

Perhaps more accurately "effective Republican lies about the economy are costing Harris" given that the economy itself is actually very good

And disagreements on immigration isn't being lax.

 

[He's Not Here]

As much as I love it, no way no how is she flipping FL. Desantis has turned it into a MAGA theme park

I’m in Florida right now. When we crossed into the state, the sign said, “Welcome to the free state of Florida.”

Was rather nauseating.

 

[superrific]

Color me shocked, absolutely shocked, that the final NYT poll is tied. Wonder what incentive they have for that.

I’m at the point where I’m just saying fuck it until Election Day. None of these pollsters know what the turnout is going to be. They’re shooting in the dark and hoping they finally got it right this year.

The NYT was not putting its thumb on the scale for Trump in this poll. They have no incentive to do that. Nate Cohn is well respected. He could get a job anywhere. He's not going to throw his reputation away.

A tied race nationally means almost nothing right now. The forecast models barely even use the national polls at this stage, when there are so many swing state polls.

 

[superrific]

I’m not saying they’re “putting their thumb on the scale.” It’s well documented that the NYT poll is weighing their poll based on assumptions about a change in dynamics.

That is, they expect Trump to improve on his numbers with low-propensity Black and Latino (and to a lesser extent, White) men. At the same time, they expect Harris to remain strong with college educated whites in the way that Biden did and the party did in 2022.

It remains to be seen whether this will happen or not. Not every poll is doing the same things the NYT poll is doing, and it’s a deliberate choice they’re making.

Even if Cohn thoroughly agrees with the methodology, the fact remains: this drives clicks and attention. Cohn approving the results and methodology is just the icing on the cake for the NYT’s business model.

No, I think you have misunderstood the discussion of the Times' polls. In particular, they aren't weighing their polls on assumptions like that. They are doing the opposite. They are the ones NOT weighing their polls based on assumptions.

Let's review. Every pollster needs a way of creating a representative sample. We talked a bit about Bullfinch and its novel (or perhaps atavistic) approach, which is not to weight at all but call people until they get enough respondents to create the sample they want. Fine, but that's expensive and most pollsters aren't doing it. They are all weighting. They weight by race, gender, age, education, etc.

The point of disagreement is whether to weight on recalled 2020 vote. They are not doing that, unlike many pollsters. I agree with them. Weighting on recalled vote is methodologically suspect and I think it's being used ad hoc by pollsters who are basically looking to add two or three points to Trump in order to be more "accurate." Some pollsters last cycle were just adding 5 points to Trump's numbers, for no reason except they thought Trump was doing better than the polls said. Those pollsters were "accurate" in 2020. The weighting by recalled vote is a more sophisticated version of that.

Anyway, what the recalled-vote weighting does is make an assumption that the electorate is basically the same as in 2020. THAT's THE ASSUMPTION. It's not the Times assuming change; it's the Times being open to the possibility of change.

Keep in mind that the Times polls have given Kamala some great numbers. Great, in the sense of being positive where it matters. And the Times has also been saying, "look, we keep seeing things like Trump +10 in Florida. Other pollsters are massaging that to Trump +5, but we're going to go with Trump +10 because that's what people are telling us." And Trump +10 in Florida is fucking great. If Trump wins Florida by 30, then it will be a Kamala landslide.