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I think the strategy is don’t push back to avoid pissing off anyone. Pro-transgender folks would be motivated to vote Harris just by the Trump ad and pushing back risks alienating Anti-transgender folks who are otherwise open to voting to Harris due to other, more important issues. Either way transgender rights ranks very low on priorities for voters, so elevating its importance by responding isn’t likely to be very helpful and may hurt. Better to address issues voters care more about.It only takes one screw up in the blue wall states to throw this election. Noted on Morning Joe, there was some concern about the transgender ad Trump is using full force in those states and almost no push back from Harris Campaign. Shades of Swift boating?
But, in this case you have to wonder why not much push back? Could it be a reluctance to butt heads with a Dem special interest group that the push back would cause?
Crime scares the shit out of people. While the same is true of some people for transgender, most people don’t even know someone transgender and don’t really care one way or the other.Willie Horton ad was stupid ass too. Dems big poll lead disappeared quick. No Dem response.
I hate for Harris to lose any state that is contested, but she is going to lose some. But Arizona is particularly problematic because a Trump win there might drag Kari Lake into the US Senate. But right now, I think, it is Trump +1 over Harris and Gallego +8 over Lake. I guess the people of Arizona have first-hand knowledge of how nuts Lake is.
Dems should’ve convinced a couple of the big video game franchises to have a new release on Nov 4.Gender gap of +3 in NC is bad for Harris as that is smaller than the gender gap in NC in the 2020 election. And -3 in Nevada is devastating for her chances there. Georgia at +9 is slightly below 2020 … but those numbers are very healthy in the Blue Wall.
Oh wouldn’t that be a great piece of evidence to add to the conspiracy theory!
As much as I love it, no way no how is she flipping FL. Desantis has turned it into a MAGA theme park
You should follow realcarlallen. He’s a statistician and he’s been making fun of nate all weekI hate him so fucking much.
He's like if gtyellowjacket had a Twitter platform.I hate him so fucking much.
Color me shocked, absolutely shocked, that the final NYT poll is tied. Wonder what incentive they have for that.
I’m at the point where I’m just saying fuck it until Election Day. None of these pollsters know what the turnout is going to be. They’re shooting in the dark and hoping they finally got it right this year.
They would only be right if it's a close result. If you predict a toss up and the result is one sided then they couldn't say they 'got it right.'If they say it’s a toss up, they can say they got it right regardless of the outcome.
And disagreements on immigration isn't being lax.Perhaps more accurately "effective Republican lies about the economy are costing Harris" given that the economy itself is actually very good
I’m in Florida right now. When we crossed into the state, the sign said, “Welcome to the free state of Florida.”As much as I love it, no way no how is she flipping FL. Desantis has turned it into a MAGA theme park
The NYT was not putting its thumb on the scale for Trump in this poll. They have no incentive to do that. Nate Cohn is well respected. He could get a job anywhere. He's not going to throw his reputation away.Color me shocked, absolutely shocked, that the final NYT poll is tied. Wonder what incentive they have for that.
I’m at the point where I’m just saying fuck it until Election Day. None of these pollsters know what the turnout is going to be. They’re shooting in the dark and hoping they finally got it right this year.
No, I think you have misunderstood the discussion of the Times' polls. In particular, they aren't weighing their polls on assumptions like that. They are doing the opposite. They are the ones NOT weighing their polls based on assumptions.I’m not saying they’re “putting their thumb on the scale.” It’s well documented that the NYT poll is weighing their poll based on assumptions about a change in dynamics.
That is, they expect Trump to improve on his numbers with low-propensity Black and Latino (and to a lesser extent, White) men. At the same time, they expect Harris to remain strong with college educated whites in the way that Biden did and the party did in 2022.
It remains to be seen whether this will happen or not. Not every poll is doing the same things the NYT poll is doing, and it’s a deliberate choice they’re making.
Even if Cohn thoroughly agrees with the methodology, the fact remains: this drives clicks and attention. Cohn approving the results and methodology is just the icing on the cake for the NYT’s business model.