2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

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superrific said:
Interesting data from NC this week. White people voted in force. On Tuesday, the racial turnout gap was less than 4 points. Now it's more than 7. Not sure if that's meaningful, but in 2020 the gap was 12%. I don't know if black people tend to vote more commonly on weekends, so maybe that's what the data is showing this week.
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Historically, they do, yes.
 
aGDevil2k said:
Historically, they do, yes.
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I think the results in NC will be pretty good if the racial turnout gap is less than 10%. I had thought that black turnout was basically always less than white turnout but looking at the data for NC, it seems as though black turnout was higher than white turnout in 2008 and 2012. But the gap was 12 points in 2016 and 2020. If we can get it to 6 or even 8, we most likely win, I think.
 
circlesky88 said:
I half-jokingly said they would want to do this right after storm.
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Yeah, I remember you posting that and thinking, but not posting, "Come on, don't say stuff like that out loud. You never know who reads this board."
 
ZenMode said:
Arizona h

AZ consistently rejects MAGA. Trump, Masters, Lake and Fontes in 2020 and Lake is currently down double digits to Gallego.
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And yet they don't seem to be rejecting the leading MAGAt of them all, Donald J. Trump. It is amazing that they're going to likely reject Kari Lake as too extreme and crazy and yet the equally (or worse) extreme and crazy Trump is probably going to carry the state this time. Doesn't make any logical sense, but then we're not living in sane or rational times.
 
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"Race is remarkably stable. 47% of country is MAGA or open to MAGA; 53% isn't. The goal of Harris-Walz is to coalesce as much of 53% as possible.

Today, Liz Cheney and Bernie Sanders are on the same side. That's not a bad coalition. The differences in polls are about the percentage of the 53% that Harris is getting. Trump stays stuck at 47%. If you were for Trump, you were for Trump months ago. You are looking for someone else to be acceptable. He's functioning as the incumbent.

Harris is winning a larger percentage of R's than Trump is of D's. She's winning independents. Could Trump win? Sure. But is there any element of the campaign that Trump campaign is performing at a higher level than Harris campaign? Think of it as a sports team match-up. She has better organization, more money, a better message and is performing at a much higher level than Trump. Most candidates are trying not to make mistakes at this stage of the presidential race. Exhaustion is a key factor. But Harris is improving. Maybe because she hasn't been a candidate for a year and a half.

In campaigns, the question you ask every night is would you rather be your campaign or the other guy? I'd rather be Harris."
 
CFordUNC said:


"Race is remarkably stable. 47% of country is MAGA or open to MAGA; 53% isn't. The goal of Harris-Walz is to coalesce as much of 53% as possible.

Today, Liz Cheney and Bernie Sanders are on the same side. That's not a bad coalition. The differences in polls are about the percentage of the 53% that Harris is getting. Trump stays stuck at 47%. If you were for Trump, you were for Trump months ago. You are looking for someone else to be acceptable. He's functioning as the incumbent.

Harris is winning a larger percentage of R's than Trump is of D's. She's winning independents. Could Trump win? Sure. But is there any element of the campaign that Trump campaign is performing at a higher level than Harris campaign? Think of it as a sports team match-up. She has better organization, more money, a better message and is performing at a much higher level than Trump. Most candidates are trying not to make mistakes at this stage of the presidential race. Exhaustion is a key factor. But Harris is improving. Maybe because she hasn't been a candidate for a year and a half.

In campaigns, the question you ask every night is would you rather be your campaign or the other guy? I'd rather be Harris."
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Season 3 Smiling GIF by The Simpsons
 
CFordUNC said:


"Race is remarkably stable. 47% of country is MAGA or open to MAGA; 53% isn't. The goal of Harris-Walz is to coalesce as much of 53% as possible.

Today, Liz Cheney and Bernie Sanders are on the same side. That's not a bad coalition. The differences in polls are about the percentage of the 53% that Harris is getting. Trump stays stuck at 47%. If you were for Trump, you were for Trump months ago. You are looking for someone else to be acceptable. He's functioning as the incumbent.

Harris is winning a larger percentage of R's than Trump is of D's. She's winning independents. Could Trump win? Sure. But is there any element of the campaign that Trump campaign is performing at a higher level than Harris campaign? Think of it as a sports team match-up. She has better organization, more money, a better message and is performing at a much higher level than Trump. Most candidates are trying not to make mistakes at this stage of the presidential race. Exhaustion is a key factor. But Harris is improving. Maybe because she hasn't been a candidate for a year and a half.

In campaigns, the question you ask every night is would you rather be your campaign or the other guy? I'd rather be Harris."
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Yeah, that has been James Carville's ceiling for Trump: 47%. TG the 3rd party candidates are drawing nearly nil. Having Bernie and AOC actively supporting and campaigning for Kamala is big.
 


Not particularly useful info in terms of reading tea leaves but people are out there voting.

More than 158 million Americans voted in 2020, and over 100 million were some form of early voting, so a long way to go.
 
nycfan said:


Not particularly useful info in terms of reading tea leaves but people are out there voting.

More than 158 million Americans voted in 2020, so a long way to go.
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I'm going to hate it if St. Donald of Mar-a-Lago gets coronated as President for Life in January. But if that happens as a result of a legitimate massive turn-out that sweeps him into a hereditary ruler position, then we will have gotten what we deserve. But the Poles, Ukrainians, and other former Warsaw Pact countries that wanted to join the West and the peoples of Taiwan and the Philippines will get what they didn't want and don't deserve. I know no Trump voter will listen to the likes of me and even if they did all they would think is, "F the rest of the world." But a Trump Reich is not going to last a 1,000 years. I doubt it will last long enough for Baron to ascend to power. But when the Trump Reich falls, that way lies a terrible darkness and an inconceivable madness.
 
I’m becoming resigned to a Trump win. Just feel like it to me. I’ve voted, made sure my elderly mother voted, unfortunately our two Harris votes are being canceled out by my two brothers and their Trump votes.
 
circlesky88 said:
I’m becoming resigned to a Trump win. Just feel like it to me. I’ve voted, made sure my elderly mother voted, unfortunately our two Harris votes are being canceled out by my two brothers and their Trump votes.
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I understand this defense mechanism.
But I’m going to hold out hope for America as long as I can. Even if it’s just 10 more days.
 
aGDevil2k said:
So the whole GOP early vote push, I'm seeing, is to push the narrative that they are doing so much better compared to 2020 at this point... And so if Democrats start to do better because there is no election day red surge like there used to be, they can claim fraud
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They’ve been given permission to vote early.

It’s simply way more convenient for many people.
 
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