2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

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HeelInTheOzarks said:
Huge key for this race was to keep the third party vote very low. This was why Biden was likely to lose. Harris hopefully solidifies the Dem coalition and keeps 3-4% from casting third party votes. Trump is always stuck at 46
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I feel like there will be less 3rd party votes.

Trump has always been polarizing, but we’re kind of at a “pick a side” point in history.
 
RockyMtnHoo said:
I feel like there will be less 3rd party votes.

Trump has always been polarizing, but we’re kind of at a “pick a side” point in history.
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We were in 2016 as well and people still didn't get it. I expect less of it this time but only because of weaker third party movements.
 
RockyMtnHoo said:
I feel like there will be less 3rd party votes.

Trump has always been polarizing, but we’re kind of at a “pick a side” point in history.
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This was the biggest difference between 16 and 20.

2016
MI - Trump/Clinton difference: 10,674
MI - Johnson + Stein: 223,599

PA - Trump/Clinton difference: 44,292
PA - Johnson + Stein: 196,656

WI - Trump/Clinton difference: 22,748
WI - Johnson + Stein: 137,746


2020
MI - Biden/Trump difference: 154,188
MI - Libertarian/Green: 74,099

PA - Biden/Trump difference: 80,555
PA - Libertarian/Green: 79,380

WI - Biden/Trump difference: 20,682
WI - Libertarian/Green: 38,491


Michigan R to D swing- 164,862
Michigan decrease Lib/Green - 149,500
Pennsylvania R to D swing - 124,847
Pennsylvania decrease Lib/Green - 117,276
Wisconsin R to D swing - 43,470
Wisconsin decrease Lib/Green - 99,255
 
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HeelInTheOzarks said:
For Trump

I don’t think he’s gained anything from it. You just needed someone that a few people have heard of on the ballot to have the people who don’t like Trump but also don’t want a Dem/woman/minority to be able to check.
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I think that was Trump's original intention in pumping RFKJr up. But what ended up occurring is that polling showed that RFKJr pulled more voters from Trump than Harris and so he was a net drain on Trump. That's when they ended the charade and had RFKJr drop out.

There's a reason why RFKJr was suing to get off the ballot in swing states. It's because him being on the ballot was not good for Trump.
 
UNCMSinLS said:
Montanans always give 101%. 50+46+3+2 > 100. Pollsters do love their mathin'. :rolleyes:
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If you look at their more detailed results, that is a rounding issue, the numbers don’t actually come out to 101%. But I’m because there is a margin of error, the reported results are usually rounded to a whole number in ways that not infrequently end with the appearance of 101% vote. I don’t know why the usual rounding up/down convention doesn’t correct for that.
 
nycfan said:
If you look at their more detailed results, that is a rounding issue, the numbers don’t actually come out to 101%. But I’m because there is a margin of error, the reported results are usually rounded to a whole number in ways that not infrequently end with the appearance of 101% vote. I don’t know why the usual rounding up/down convention doesn’t correct for that.
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49.75 +45.75 +2.75 +1.75 or something similar is my guess.
 
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