2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden
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uncjhodges
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The nyt polls have been pretty right leaning. I think they’re overcompensating for a “silent” trump voter that just doesn’t exist this time
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OK, just imagine you are stuck in some low-paying, dead-end job, with no prospect of advancement, and a near certainty that your job will soon be done by some third world child who will work for 1/10th what you make. And then with all that in mind, imagine what that person must feel seeing some college graduate driving down the road in a new car, going home to a fancy house. Does imagining that scenario make you (a) want to improve your life by learning new job skills that are in demand in today's economy or (b) want to shove that smarmy college boy's face in the mud and set fire to his car and house? If (a) you are a Democrat. If (b) you are a Republican.
The closest thing you'll get to analysis from HY is "well all I know is inflation was higher under Biden".
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I’ll throw in my two cents and voice some relative optimism. Despite a slight shifting in polls, I highly doubt anything has changed over the past couple months in terms of how people plan to vote. And when you see national polls that show Trump leading or the race tied, that’s just hard to believe. I would be shocked if Kamala doesn’t win the popular vote by more than a point, which suggests to me that many of these polls are overstating Trump’s chances. And that overstatement may therefore apply to the polling in battleground states as well. While things change, let’s also remember that the blue wall states have rejected Trump and MAGAism in post-2016 elections.
I totally get why people are freaking out. This isn’t Romney or McCain on the Republican ticket. Regardless of whether we disagreed with them, we had enough confidence that they were decent enough people … and competent. This is a guy whose cabinet members have warned us of the dangers of a Trump presidency and tried to provide guardrails during his first term. And if he wins, based on who he is currently surrounding himself with, it seems unlikely that those guardrails will be in place.
We’ll see what happens on Election Day (or the days after). We’re not living in a country where people are trying to decide whether to vote for Harris or Trump. It comes down to whether those who aren’t sure whether they are going to vote are going to end up voting and how those people lean.
I totally get why people are freaking out. This isn’t Romney or McCain on the Republican ticket. Regardless of whether we disagreed with them, we had enough confidence that they were decent enough people … and competent. This is a guy whose cabinet members have warned us of the dangers of a Trump presidency and tried to provide guardrails during his first term. And if he wins, based on who he is currently surrounding himself with, it seems unlikely that those guardrails will be in place.
We’ll see what happens on Election Day (or the days after). We’re not living in a country where people are trying to decide whether to vote for Harris or Trump. It comes down to whether those who aren’t sure whether they are going to vote are going to end up voting and how those people lean.
heelinhell
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I wonder how many Indys have voted early ?
I wonder how many Dems have voted early for Trump ?
I wonder how many republicans have voted early for Kamala ?
superrific
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OK, y'all, Nate Cohn's comments on the last NYT survey should be appreciated in full. And I will add one more example to the shift he describes: the Times poll had Trump running about 9 points better in NYC than in previous years. Thus:
***--- National Polls Do Not Matter ---***
Because the race is so close in the swing states, campaigns are paying little to no attention to other less competitive states. And Trump is running wild in places where his base support is strong. Good for him. It's pushing his national polling numbers up. It does nothing for him in the EC.
National polls are only relevant when there is a predictable partisan lean for the swing states. But that partisan lean is not predictable this year. And pretty much everything I've read says to trust the state polls over the national polls this late in the race -- well, the swing state polls because there are so many of them.
We do not need a popular vote cushion. Trump could win the popular vote and lose the EC. I don't know why people are assuming that's impossible. Remember, the main factor in creating the Dems' EC deficit was that the most populous state has been a blue landslide state, but the third most populous state was a pink state just out of reach. OK, knock about 5 points off Dem performance in CA and add 5 to FL and the EC issue starts to dissipate real quick.
Pretty much everyone is acknowledging this now. It was only Nate Cohn a month ago. The swing states are largely unmoored from the national trends, at least at the closeness levels that we care about. If the national polls move by 7, I'd expect the swing states to move and there's no real difference if they move by 5, 7 or 9. But if the national polls move by a point, and the swing states move by a fraction of that -- which is what we care about -- then it's nothing.
***--- National Polls Do Not Matter ---***
Because the race is so close in the swing states, campaigns are paying little to no attention to other less competitive states. And Trump is running wild in places where his base support is strong. Good for him. It's pushing his national polling numbers up. It does nothing for him in the EC.
National polls are only relevant when there is a predictable partisan lean for the swing states. But that partisan lean is not predictable this year. And pretty much everything I've read says to trust the state polls over the national polls this late in the race -- well, the swing state polls because there are so many of them.
We do not need a popular vote cushion. Trump could win the popular vote and lose the EC. I don't know why people are assuming that's impossible. Remember, the main factor in creating the Dems' EC deficit was that the most populous state has been a blue landslide state, but the third most populous state was a pink state just out of reach. OK, knock about 5 points off Dem performance in CA and add 5 to FL and the EC issue starts to dissipate real quick.
Pretty much everyone is acknowledging this now. It was only Nate Cohn a month ago. The swing states are largely unmoored from the national trends, at least at the closeness levels that we care about. If the national polls move by 7, I'd expect the swing states to move and there's no real difference if they move by 5, 7 or 9. But if the national polls move by a point, and the swing states move by a fraction of that -- which is what we care about -- then it's nothing.
rodoheel
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What's he's said in the past is basically "my family and I were better off financially under Trump, and that's the thing I care about the most"
CallMeTyler
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That’s his public, PR-rendered position. Anyone voting for Trump, after so many vile, treacherous things he’s said and done, cannot only care about their alleged financial fortunes (which doesn’t hold up) under Trump.
HY is too cowardly to own his real reasons publicly.
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You voted for Donald Trump and Hal Leatherman. Mark Robinson, Dan Bishop, and Michelle Morrow are a bridge too far for you but you happily vote for people just as bad or worse. Maybe you should sit this out rather than offering your nonsensical “analysis.”
heelinhell
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I suspect that his family was not financially better off under Trump compared to today...
lawtig02
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And if they're not, that's almost entirely the result of insufficient action on teacher pay by the Pubs controlling the NC legislature, and not anything at the national level.
UNCRx85
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Wonder how he expects Trump placing 10-20% tariffs on everything to effect his family's financials...
rodoheel
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Well he also thinks that Vivek Ramaswamy's pet idea of eliminating the Department of Education and/or cutting its budget by 75% will be a boon for teachers, so....
Part of his logic before (Probably 2+ years ago at this point) had to do with his dad's small business. Basically said his dad and all the other guys like him were happy and optimistic and rich during Trump's presidency and depressed and not investing money in their businesses because of Biden's socialism or whatever.
lawtig02
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Yeah, I can't imagine what happened circa 2020-21 that might have had a disproportionate impact on small businesses. Clearly Dems' fault, though.
RockyMtnHoo
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I’m my completely unscientific opinion, I believe the reason we’re seeing things look so close right now, is most of the voting public don’t follow politics like we do on this board.
Joe Citizen who is “undecided” sees that groceries and gas were cheaper pre-COVID, and we didn’t end up in World War 3 with Trump the first time, so they’re strongly considering voting for him to get back to that.
Joe Citizen who is “undecided” sees that groceries and gas were cheaper pre-COVID, and we didn’t end up in World War 3 with Trump the first time, so they’re strongly considering voting for him to get back to that.
uncgriff
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So we are simply too stupid as a country to be a democracy anymore. That's ok. There are lots of countries that are better off under an autocracy. Maybe we have reached that point.
lawtig02
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While this is certainly correct, I can't for the life of me understand why so many people are willing to pretend Trump's presidency ended on March 1, 2020.