2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

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The Democrats have done such a bad job explaining the issues this cycle. Gosh, I hate voting for them and wish we would see more progressive candidates.

Harris should have said the following.

1 - inflation was higher when Joe took office because we were coming off a global pandemic. It was a 100 year event. We spent unheard of money (trillions) to ensure we got through it. When you spend at that levels and keep rates low, you are going to see inflation. After we got through it, we saw levels adjust to historic norms. The fact that Harris never could articulate that simple fact is beyond me. In fact, she just pretended it like was all fine. Just tell people it sucked but was necessary and now it’s fixed. That’s all true btw.

2 - Just own that the border policies were bad and they got fixed. Biden should have done her a solid and said he believed the border policies were good and that Harris guided him to correct them and now they are very good. That last part would have been BS but just say my bad and again, as part of good governing we recognize mistakes and adjust and we did that.

3 - don’t talk about rich folks paying their fair share. Don’t talk about how rich corporations will pay more. Only talk about how you will cut taxes for people making less than (choose a number). To the average American, they want to be rich. They might be employed by a corporation. They don’t get that talk. But they will get - i make less than (choose a number) so I guess that will impact me.

4 - quit talking about what a threat Trump is. We all know it. The guys insane. He’s dangerous. He’s also the least popular politician in our history. The public views him as a loon but doesn’t think he’s a huge threat. That lived through four years and some still remember the stupid TV show he was on. When your whole message is the crazy guy will turn us into Germany, folks don’t buy it. Just focus on change. He’s old. He’s had his shot. We are better than him. He was only able to barely beat the least popular woman in America. He lost to a guy who ran for president 100x. Just focus on turning the page.

It’s baked now and I pray Harris wins but if she loses, the party needs to go back and look at messaging. MSNBC, Twitter, etc is not every day America. Most folks couldn’t explain what happened on 1/6. They don’t care.
 
HintonJamesHeel said:
The Democrats have done such a bad job explaining the issues this cycle. Gosh, I hate voting for them and wish we would see more progressive candidates.

Harris should have said the following.

1 - inflation was higher when Joe took office because we were coming off a global pandemic. It was a 100 year event. We spent unheard of money (trillions) to ensure we got through it. When you spend at that levels and keep rates low, you are going to see inflation. After we got through it, we saw levels adjust to historic norms. The fact that Harris never could articulate that simple fact is beyond me. In fact, she just pretended it like was all fine. Just tell people it sucked but was necessary and now it’s fixed. That’s all true btw.

2 - Just own that the border policies were bad and they got fixed. Biden should have done her a solid and said he believed the border policies were good and that Harris guided him to correct them and now they are very good. That last part would have been BS but just say my bad and again, as part of good governing we recognize mistakes and adjust and we did that.

3 - don’t talk about rich folks paying their fair share. Don’t talk about how rich corporations will pay more. Only talk about how you will cut taxes for people making less than (choose a number). To the average American, they want to be rich. They might be employed by a corporation. They don’t get that talk. But they will get - i make less than (choose a number) so I guess that will impact me.

4 - quit talking about what a threat Trump is. We all know it. The guys insane. He’s dangerous. He’s also the least popular politician in our history. The public views him as a loon but doesn’t think he’s a huge threat. That lived through four years and some still remember the stupid TV show he was on. When your whole message is the crazy guy will turn us into Germany, folks don’t buy it. Just focus on change. He’s old. He’s had his shot. We are better than him. He was only able to barely beat the least popular woman in America. He lost to a guy who ran for president 100x. Just focus on turning the page.

It’s baked now and I pray Harris wins but if she loses, the party needs to go back and look at messaging. MSNBC, Twitter, etc is not every day America. Most folks couldn’t explain what happened on 1/6. They don’t care.
Click to expand...
Are you done yet?
 
HintonJamesHeel said:
The Democrats have done such a bad job explaining the issues this cycle. Gosh, I hate voting for them and wish we would see more progressive candidates.

Harris should have said the following.

1 - inflation was higher when Joe took office because we were coming off a global pandemic. It was a 100 year event. We spent unheard of money (trillions) to ensure we got through it. When you spend at that levels and keep rates low, you are going to see inflation. After we got through it, we saw levels adjust to historic norms. The fact that Harris never could articulate that simple fact is beyond me. In fact, she just pretended it like was all fine. Just tell people it sucked but was necessary and now it’s fixed. That’s all true btw.

2 - Just own that the border policies were bad and they got fixed. Biden should have done her a solid and said he believed the border policies were good and that Harris guided him to correct them and now they are very good. That last part would have been BS but just say my bad and again, as part of good governing we recognize mistakes and adjust and we did that.

3 - don’t talk about rich folks paying their fair share. Don’t talk about how rich corporations will pay more. Only talk about how you will cut taxes for people making less than (choose a number). To the average American, they want to be rich. They might be employed by a corporation. They don’t get that talk. But they will get - i make less than (choose a number) so I guess that will impact me.

4 - quit talking about what a threat Trump is. We all know it. The guys insane. He’s dangerous. He’s also the least popular politician in our history. The public views him as a loon but doesn’t think he’s a huge threat. That lived through four years and some still remember the stupid TV show he was on. When your whole message is the crazy guy will turn us into Germany, folks don’t buy it. Just focus on change. He’s old. He’s had his shot. We are better than him. He was only able to barely beat the least popular woman in America. He lost to a guy who ran for president 100x. Just focus on turning the page.

It’s baked now and I pray Harris wins but if she loses, the party needs to go back and look at messaging. MSNBC, Twitter, etc is not every day America. Most folks couldn’t explain what happened on 1/6. They don’t care.
Click to expand...
Democrats are great at governing but suck at messaging
GQPers are great at messaging but suck at governing
 
HintonJamesHeel said:
The Democrats have done such a bad job explaining the issues this cycle. Gosh, I hate voting for them and wish we would see more progressive candidates.

Harris should have said the following.

1 - inflation was higher when Joe took office because we were coming off a global pandemic. It was a 100 year event. We spent unheard of money (trillions) to ensure we got through it. When you spend at that levels and keep rates low, you are going to see inflation. After we got through it, we saw levels adjust to historic norms. The fact that Harris never could articulate that simple fact is beyond me. In fact, she just pretended it like was all fine. Just tell people it sucked but was necessary and now it’s fixed. That’s all true btw.

2 - Just own that the border policies were bad and they got fixed. Biden should have done her a solid and said he believed the border policies were good and that Harris guided him to correct them and now they are very good. That last part would have been BS but just say my bad and again, as part of good governing we recognize mistakes and adjust and we did that.

3 - don’t talk about rich folks paying their fair share. Don’t talk about how rich corporations will pay more. Only talk about how you will cut taxes for people making less than (choose a number). To the average American, they want to be rich. They might be employed by a corporation. They don’t get that talk. But they will get - i make less than (choose a number) so I guess that will impact me.

4 - quit talking about what a threat Trump is. We all know it. The guys insane. He’s dangerous. He’s also the least popular politician in our history. The public views him as a loon but doesn’t think he’s a huge threat. That lived through four years and some still remember the stupid TV show he was on. When your whole message is the crazy guy will turn us into Germany, folks don’t buy it. Just focus on change. He’s old. He’s had his shot. We are better than him. He was only able to barely beat the least popular woman in America. He lost to a guy who ran for president 100x. Just focus on turning the page.

It’s baked now and I pray Harris wins but if she loses, the party needs to go back and look at messaging. MSNBC, Twitter, etc is not every day America. Most folks couldn’t explain what happened on 1/6. They don’t care.
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But 47% of America isn't going to hear these arguments anyways. 35% are MAGA, and the other 12-15% don't give a shit and will vote for however they're feeling that day.

I don't think any messaging matters anymore. There's too much noise, too much misinformation to convince anyone anymore. Hell Elon Musk is literally paying people millions of dollars to convince them and it still might not work.
 
HintonJamesHeel said:
The Democrats have done such a bad job explaining the issues this cycle. Gosh, I hate voting for them and wish we would see more progressive candidates.

Harris should have said the following.

1 - inflation was higher when Joe took office because we were coming off a global pandemic. It was a 100 year event. We spent unheard of money (trillions) to ensure we got through it. When you spend at that levels and keep rates low, you are going to see inflation. After we got through it, we saw levels adjust to historic norms. The fact that Harris never could articulate that simple fact is beyond me. In fact, she just pretended it like was all fine. Just tell people it sucked but was necessary and now it’s fixed. That’s all true btw.

2 - Just own that the border policies were bad and they got fixed. Biden should have done her a solid and said he believed the border policies were good and that Harris guided him to correct them and now they are very good. That last part would have been BS but just say my bad and again, as part of good governing we recognize mistakes and adjust and we did that.

3 - don’t talk about rich folks paying their fair share. Don’t talk about how rich corporations will pay more. Only talk about how you will cut taxes for people making less than (choose a number). To the average American, they want to be rich. They might be employed by a corporation. They don’t get that talk. But they will get - i make less than (choose a number) so I guess that will impact me.

4 - quit talking about what a threat Trump is. We all know it. The guys insane. He’s dangerous. He’s also the least popular politician in our history. The public views him as a loon but doesn’t think he’s a huge threat. That lived through four years and some still remember the stupid TV show he was on. When your whole message is the crazy guy will turn us into Germany, folks don’t buy it. Just focus on change. He’s old. He’s had his shot. We are better than him. He was only able to barely beat the least popular woman in America. He lost to a guy who ran for president 100x. Just focus on turning the page.

It’s baked now and I pray Harris wins but if she loses, the party needs to go back and look at messaging. MSNBC, Twitter, etc is not every day America. Most folks couldn’t explain what happened on 1/6. They don’t care.
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Eh, I kind of disagree. I don’t think the issues matter at all right now. The right doesn’t talk about issues at all anymore. It’s all, “everyone is out to get you unless you vote for us.”

I might argue that Harris and her ads talk to much about the issues.

The dems refuse to play the same game as the republications do and that’s why we keep losing
 
heelinhell said:
Democrats are great at governing but suck at messaging
GQPers are great at messaging but suck at governing
Click to expand...
It’s pathetic really. Trump is so disliked we can probably overcome it but I guarantee you Bernie and/or Warren would have spent less time on 1/6 and way more time on how they would make normal Americans lives better.
 
HintonJamesHeel said:
It’s pathetic really. Trump is so disliked we can probably overcome it but I guarantee you Bernie and/or Warren would have spent less time on 1/6 and way more time on how they would make normal Americans lives better.
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Lolololol yeah, and gotten destroyed at the ballot box, because you seem to be the only one completely unaware of how unpopular their policy proposals are to our largely-uninformed/ignorant electorate. Give it a break, man. My god.
 
HintonJamesHeel said:
The Democrats have done such a bad job explaining the issues this cycle. Gosh, I hate voting for them and wish we would see more progressive candidates.

Harris should have said the following.

1 - inflation was higher when Joe took office because we were coming off a global pandemic. It was a 100 year event. We spent unheard of money (trillions) to ensure we got through it. When you spend at that levels and keep rates low, you are going to see inflation. After we got through it, we saw levels adjust to historic norms. The fact that Harris never could articulate that simple fact is beyond me. In fact, she just pretended it like was all fine. Just tell people it sucked but was necessary and now it’s fixed. That’s all true btw.

2 - Just own that the border policies were bad and they got fixed. Biden should have done her a solid and said he believed the border policies were good and that Harris guided him to correct them and now they are very good. That last part would have been BS but just say my bad and again, as part of good governing we recognize mistakes and adjust and we did that.

3 - don’t talk about rich folks paying their fair share. Don’t talk about how rich corporations will pay more. Only talk about how you will cut taxes for people making less than (choose a number). To the average American, they want to be rich. They might be employed by a corporation. They don’t get that talk. But they will get - i make less than (choose a number) so I guess that will impact me.

4 - quit talking about what a threat Trump is. We all know it. The guys insane. He’s dangerous. He’s also the least popular politician in our history. The public views him as a loon but doesn’t think he’s a huge threat. That lived through four years and some still remember the stupid TV show he was on. When your whole message is the crazy guy will turn us into Germany, folks don’t buy it. Just focus on change. He’s old. He’s had his shot. We are better than him. He was only able to barely beat the least popular woman in America. He lost to a guy who ran for president 100x. Just focus on turning the page.

It’s baked now and I pray Harris wins but if she loses, the party needs to go back and look at messaging. MSNBC, Twitter, etc is not every day America. Most folks couldn’t explain what happened on 1/6. They don’t care.
Click to expand...
I guarantee 100% that the professionals working Kamala's campaign understand how to message way better than you do. They probably have thousands of pages of data on responses to these types of messages. For instance, they've run some ads making each of those points except #2, (I've seen them). Then they can examine the response to the different ads. Which ones got more people to go to the web site, to give money, to engage, etc. They do focus groups. They do this in polls (I've gotten several messaging polls, where the questions ask "if you consider this issue, would you be more willing or less willing to vote for X").

And as far as #2 goes, that is a horrible political strategy. Admitting the border policies were bad does nothing. Anyone who is concerned about them isn't going to believe her that they are "fixed." The GOP is out there saying, "millions of people are streaming into the country" and it's no response to say, "yeah, we did that but we're going to change." That will reassure nobody.

But Kamala is already pushing a different version of this message: Trump killed the border bill that I would sign. And that's why she listens to professionals and not message board posters.

Finally, you want the candidates to be more progressive and also not talk about rich people paying their fair share? Literally the core belief of progressives -- the one that a notoriously fractious group all share -- is that the tax code is unbalanced and needs to be reformed so that Warren Buffet doesn't pay less tax than his secretary (to use a classic example). How exactly do we run as progressives while eschewing the single best, most popular and most effective message that also happens to be at the core of our belief system?
 
superrific said:
I know. I was just saying that we wouldn't mind if you did a Lebron or MJ thing and showed off even for your teammates. I don't think any of us will care in the slightest if you were to start a thread every day titled "I told y'all motherfuckers!"
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Just wait until we end up winning NC by 4+ points!
Stefon Diggs Football GIF by Minnesota Vikings
 
heelinhell said:
Gas prices peaked at $4.11/gallon in July 2008... I don't remember anyone pissing and moaning about gas prices back then.
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I wonder why HY cited gas prices as evidence that things were totally out of control economically, with the implication being, of course, that it was Biden's fault?
 
theel4life said:
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That's a lot of fucking LVs. I've never seen a publicly released poll with so many respondents. The error bars on that one should be pretty low (though error bars decrease quite gradually after a certain point).

Keep in mind, though, that the poll ran from Oct 1- Oct 25. So if it's true that Trump has been gaining ground in the last two weeks -- and I'm skeptical that he really has -- then that poll would be a bit too optimistic as a snapshot right now. BUT 4 points is a bigger margin than Kamala had even a month ago (or at least on part with it), so even if this was conducted on October 1, it would be a good data point.

Keep in mind also that error bars only measure "random" error -- that is, undetectable sample biases because of selection on important but unknown factors. They don't measure systemic bias.

Caveats aside, this is a really good poll for Kamala because of the # of respondents. I still think national polls don't mean much, but they mean at least a little more to Kamala because it's looking like Trump's EV advantage is gone. That is, folks are freaking out that her lead is only 1 point nationally and closing -- because in the past, that margin would mean we lose. That's not true any more. But Kamala +4 means we win for sure.
 
Unc12003 said:
Eh, I kind of disagree. I don’t think the issues matter at all right now. The right doesn’t talk about issues at all anymore. It’s all, “everyone is out to get you unless you vote for us.”

I might argue that Harris and her ads talk to much about the issues.

The dems refuse to play the same game as the republications do and that’s why we keep losing
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We keep losing? We (meaning the dems) have won 3 of the last 4 presidential elections and 5 out of the last 8. Dem presidential candidates have won the popular vote in 7 out of that last 8 elections. (And I know that winning the popular vote isn’t the same as winning the election, but it does mean you’re getting more people to vote for you.)
 
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