2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden
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And that's still a 1000x better take than the time he thought UNC or someone from UNC was paying Kerwin Walton to leave. Talk about a questionable read on things (and that's putting it nicely).
superrific
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I can't follow what Elliott Morris is trying to argue there. Too many weird statistics that are percentages of one thing against another. Some thoughts:
1. Of all the swing states, Arizona is the one looking the worst. This should not be a surprise. Again, this is a state that has voted for a Dem twice since Truman, and one of those was 2020 and it was super-close. It is a purple state but more red than blue. I've been fooled in the past thinking, "but Dems have all statewide offices!" and while that's true, it's only barely because Katie Hobbs squeaked by Kari Lake. And there are western states where the presidential vote is more red than the state level votes.
But there is also good news here. AZ is where the Turning Point USA GOTV effort got off the ground. They were going to do it nationally and that busted, which is why Musk had to step in last minute. But they did get something going in AZ. So if AZ is doing well with turnout . . . well, that suggests ground game matters. And that's a good thing too, because we have a better ground game almost everywhere.
The other thing to ponder is that Arizona doesn't matter much. The only circumstance where AZ becomes relevant is if Kamala loses NC, GA and WI. Or, I suppose, if Kamala wins NC or GA and then loses MI.
2. In NC, I'd say things look good with the one exception of black turnout. The black vote turnout increased against white turnout by like 0.1% yesterday, so black turnout is still about 8 points lower than white turnout. On the plus side, though, Latino turnout is pretty so far, which is good because it lets those voters digest what happened in MSG and perhaps reconsider whether they want to support these fuckers.
3. I am as confident or more in MI as I am pessimistic about AZ. Remember: the MI GOP is a complete shit show. Probably the worst and most ineffective state party in this century, at least in terms of states that matter. The polls have looked good in MI -- there are more "outliers" in MI than anywhere else I've seen (Bullfinch +8, and the one posted above +4), which is important in a world of pollster herding. The GOTV in MI is strong on the Dems' side and probably weak as hell on the Pubs side.
4. So in this regard, the race has not changed in a month. The Dems have to win PA. That's it. If we do, we probably carry the election. If we don't, it's going to be tough. I've seen nothing from PA that would cause me to be concerned, other than the overall closeness of the polls which has been there for a while.
The cause in PA was helped by the state Supreme Court's ruling last week. About three weeks ago, the PA Supreme Court decided a case in a way that meant county election boards cannot count votes where the meaningless inner ballot wasn't marked correctly. That was bad. But last week, the PA Supreme Court ruled that voters whose absentee ballots weren't going to be counted could be notified of such and cast provisional ballots that will be counted. But that process -- notification and cure -- is not mandatory on counties. The big city election boards had already been doing that. The smaller counties weren't. You can see which way this will cut. Only a fraction of a percent, but again it's something.
1. Of all the swing states, Arizona is the one looking the worst. This should not be a surprise. Again, this is a state that has voted for a Dem twice since Truman, and one of those was 2020 and it was super-close. It is a purple state but more red than blue. I've been fooled in the past thinking, "but Dems have all statewide offices!" and while that's true, it's only barely because Katie Hobbs squeaked by Kari Lake. And there are western states where the presidential vote is more red than the state level votes.
But there is also good news here. AZ is where the Turning Point USA GOTV effort got off the ground. They were going to do it nationally and that busted, which is why Musk had to step in last minute. But they did get something going in AZ. So if AZ is doing well with turnout . . . well, that suggests ground game matters. And that's a good thing too, because we have a better ground game almost everywhere.
The other thing to ponder is that Arizona doesn't matter much. The only circumstance where AZ becomes relevant is if Kamala loses NC, GA and WI. Or, I suppose, if Kamala wins NC or GA and then loses MI.
2. In NC, I'd say things look good with the one exception of black turnout. The black vote turnout increased against white turnout by like 0.1% yesterday, so black turnout is still about 8 points lower than white turnout. On the plus side, though, Latino turnout is pretty so far, which is good because it lets those voters digest what happened in MSG and perhaps reconsider whether they want to support these fuckers.
3. I am as confident or more in MI as I am pessimistic about AZ. Remember: the MI GOP is a complete shit show. Probably the worst and most ineffective state party in this century, at least in terms of states that matter. The polls have looked good in MI -- there are more "outliers" in MI than anywhere else I've seen (Bullfinch +8, and the one posted above +4), which is important in a world of pollster herding. The GOTV in MI is strong on the Dems' side and probably weak as hell on the Pubs side.
4. So in this regard, the race has not changed in a month. The Dems have to win PA. That's it. If we do, we probably carry the election. If we don't, it's going to be tough. I've seen nothing from PA that would cause me to be concerned, other than the overall closeness of the polls which has been there for a while.
The cause in PA was helped by the state Supreme Court's ruling last week. About three weeks ago, the PA Supreme Court decided a case in a way that meant county election boards cannot count votes where the meaningless inner ballot wasn't marked correctly. That was bad. But last week, the PA Supreme Court ruled that voters whose absentee ballots weren't going to be counted could be notified of such and cast provisional ballots that will be counted. But that process -- notification and cure -- is not mandatory on counties. The big city election boards had already been doing that. The smaller counties weren't. You can see which way this will cut. Only a fraction of a percent, but again it's something.
This is most certainly true. I've spent the last week with my dad staying at my house with me. He's a reasonably persuadable guy and definitely isn't racist - he raised me to believe that everyone is equal. But he's surrounded by R's almost all the time, not the least of which is his wife, my stepmom, who is very conservative and comes across as a little bigoted at times, although she's mostly a nice person. They are in their 80's and long retired.
I've tried explaining things to him over the past week and think I've gotten through to him. He claims he won't be voting for Trump. But he'll say things like "I just know inflation wasn't as bad under Trump". So I'll walk him through all the reasons and he'll say he understands but then will say something like "I don't really know about all that, I just know Biden made inflation worse". So then I'll ask him to give me the policy Biden pursued that caused it and he'll say he doesn't know, just that it's worse. I'm like you are a college education person who had a successful 40 year professional career, you have do better than that. It's pretty frustrating.
There are a myriad other things he's being bombarded with, like his belief that Biden stopped oil production. I pull up the stats online and show him that's false and he'll say that's great. I will tell him if you are being lied to about that think about what else you are being lied to about, but I'm not sure it all gets through. Anyway this probably belongs in the family MAGA thread, but I wouldn't describe my family as MAGA, just conservative and misled. Hard to combat.
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Why do you think she will not?
My opinions is that those who objectively review the potential paths forward on the major issues, between the two candidates, she presents a better path forward.
For one economist have reviewed the two and predicted her plans to increase the debt much less than trumps. Additionally reviewed of her economic plans are better for the average middle family.
Plus, I believe that many are tired of the Trump shit show and want to move forward.
I'd prefer our leaders being able to talk and understanding that no matter who wins the country will move forward. I believe most know that a trump victory guarantees we never see collaboration again.
uncjhodges
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I feel good about MI and PA.
Has to win one of GA, NC, and WI.
likelihood imo is
GA
WI
NC
superrific
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What do you take to be the significance of that data (and I think it's only an estimate)? I can't figure out if it's telling us anything useful. I mean, you could put a big red square abound the Dem numbers there and wonder, "are these people just waiting or are they not going to turn out"?given the enormity of the former Eday R vote, that explains so much in these states right now
superrific
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Everything in NC is looking fine except the black turnout, and that's not been awful. I think if we keep the turnout gap less than 6 points, we win. If it's more than 10 points, we probably fall short. It's at 8 right now. But the gender gap is looking good.
aGDevil2k
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I literally said it. People are freaking about the R turnout being bigger than Dems so far. That shows right there that it's their formerly EDay vote coming out early. It's not some magic new R influx.
And the whole R vs D is pointless when a third of the vote is unaffiliated. So it's just weird how folks have been like omgtheRvoteisbig.com
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How is that going to work when Joe Biden is the president?
RockyMtnHoo
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This is a good example of what I was talking about.
We get extremely frustrated on this board because we see links and clips daily about the horrible things Trump says and plans to do, and it blows our minds he’s running even with Harris. I’ve said myself how horrible I think the people are who have or will vote for him, but the more I talk to people who don’t have an extreme opinion (in one way, or the other) of Trump, I just don’t see folks paying attention to what’s going on. That’s unfortunate and a little scary, but the closer we get to Nov 5 I feel like there are more people out there like your father, who just aren’t paying attention close enough…not that they’re bad people necessarily.
lightbluenc
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Also in NC, in 2020 R's turnout was 81% and D's was 75%, so a 6% difference in turnout. (with Unaffiliated being 70%)
Right now its just a 3% advantage for R's, so I'm hoping that if D's can have the turnout disparity of 5% and under, then that's a good thing.
If we can end it being D turnout out 76% and R at just 79% she has a better shot.
*edited to clarify Unaffiliated voters.
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HeelYeah2012
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I also wouldn't call Trump or Weatherman "great candidates". The only great candidate I voted for was probably Jeff Jackson.
superrific
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There are two sides to a "R turnout is bigger than D turnout" narrative. Sure, it could be that R turnout is just being time-shifted more than D turnout. But what if a) overall Republican turnout is higher overall and/or b) Dem turnout just doesn't materialize? I don't think the glass half full view is any more grounded than the glass half empty one.
Of course there's also the little matter of what names are on the ballots being returned. To me, that's a more important variable than I think the media and election analysts are giving credit. Maybe I'm wrong about that.
Also, where the hell did those numbers come from? I can't square the claim about PA in that tweet with what I'm seeing on the PA official voting sites.
superrific
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What is UA?
aGDevil2k
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unaffiliated
lightbluenc
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Unaffiliated, sorry I'll edit the post to reflect it.
On top of that, I think there were a chunk of Dems that switched party ID to Unaffiliated to vote in the primary for Haley. So some of the numbers of actual registered D's has gone way down.
superrific
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By the way, the Dems were said to have a target of surplus Dem turnout (that is, Dem registered ballots - Rep registered ballots) of 400K. It's leveling off but still growing, and it's at 372K.
I don't know the modeling on that 400K number. I have to assume that getting 400K makes a victory quite likely (you have to set goals that are meaningful), and so if we top off at, say, 390K we're still in good shape. I don't know if that's true, though.
Still, I'd rather be us than them in PA and MI. I'd rather be them than us in AZ. I think GA and NC are both close. I'd rather be us in MI than them in either of those states -- and I'd rather be in the position of not *needing* either and definitely not needing both.
I don't know the modeling on that 400K number. I have to assume that getting 400K makes a victory quite likely (you have to set goals that are meaningful), and so if we top off at, say, 390K we're still in good shape. I don't know if that's true, though.
Still, I'd rather be us than them in PA and MI. I'd rather be them than us in AZ. I think GA and NC are both close. I'd rather be us in MI than them in either of those states -- and I'd rather be in the position of not *needing* either and definitely not needing both.
superrific
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Ah yes, the classic two letter abbreviation for one word. It's like when people say out loud "Dubya Dubya Two." That's more of an old timer thing and maybe the younger folks don't get the reference.
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Favorable courts, widespread terrorism, and corrupt electors, amongst a myriad of contrivances. They did it in 2020 in a last minute fashion, and nearly succeeded. They’ve been planning a coup, should they lose, for > 4 yrs. The red wave polls, violent rhetoric, push for early voting, pre-written lawsuits, constant barrage of disinformation, etc. is of a piece. And to be clear, ttump is merely the useful idiot. The people behind him are a combo of clever, some downright brilliant, sociopaths and ideologues.
If ttump wins won’t matter, other than the removal of anyone in the electoral process who won’t genuflect, in perpetuity, to ttump, thiel, musk, Vance, and whatever ghouls they elevate.