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2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden
- Thread starter nycfan
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More from the CBS poll:
“… In all, it nets out to even — and to an even-tighter contest. It's tied across the composite battleground states collectively, and Harris is down to just a +1 in national vote preference. (Harris had once been at +3 in the battlegrounds in September and it narrowed to +1 two weeks ago. Trump has incrementally erased a 4-point national edge Harris had after their debate.) …”
“… In all, it nets out to even — and to an even-tighter contest. It's tied across the composite battleground states collectively, and Harris is down to just a +1 in national vote preference. (Harris had once been at +3 in the battlegrounds in September and it narrowed to +1 two weeks ago. Trump has incrementally erased a 4-point national edge Harris had after their debate.) …”
rodoheel
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Are CNBC, CNN, and WSJ “red wave” pollsters?
lawtig02
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Not per se, but with the possible exception of CNBC, those are fairly old polls now. The WSJ one is the one with the major methodological issues that was discussed at length last week.
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No. The Red wave ones are better for Trump and the GOP.
quakerdevil
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Trump's ceiling has consistently been 46%
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Campaigns’ takes on Georgia so far:
“… Senior advisers for Vice President Kamala Harris well aware that voter participation rates in some ruby-red rural counties far outpaces more densely populated Democratic strongholds.
…
Harris number-crunchers see the 2022 midterm as the more relevant comparison and say they’re tracking above that turnout level. They expect this week to be the heaviest volume yet, particularly in metro Atlanta, and view their targets in reach.
Based on their modeling, nearly 20% of the Republican-leaning early voters so far this cycle cast Election Day ballots in 2022, compared with 10% of Democratic-leaning early voters. To them, that indicates a GOP “mode shift” toward earlier voting but not a major change in the size of the pro-Donald Trump electorate.
Women are outvoting men in Georgia by about 10 percentage points, an encouraging sign for a Democrat who polls well ahead of the former president with women voters. And according to Democratic analysis, turnout among Black women in the metro Atlanta suburbs is 40% higher in this cycle than at this point in 2020. …”
In 2022, polls seemed to have overstated the GOP turnout, and in 2020 the GOP use of early voting was actively discouraged by Trump and his team.
How Democrats and Republicans view Georgia’s early voting numbers
Republicans have embraced early voting, boosting their numbers. Meanwhile more women are voting than men, a positive sign for Democrats.
appnews.ajc.com
“… Senior advisers for Vice President Kamala Harris well aware that voter participation rates in some ruby-red rural counties far outpaces more densely populated Democratic strongholds.
…
Harris number-crunchers see the 2022 midterm as the more relevant comparison and say they’re tracking above that turnout level. They expect this week to be the heaviest volume yet, particularly in metro Atlanta, and view their targets in reach.
Based on their modeling, nearly 20% of the Republican-leaning early voters so far this cycle cast Election Day ballots in 2022, compared with 10% of Democratic-leaning early voters. To them, that indicates a GOP “mode shift” toward earlier voting but not a major change in the size of the pro-Donald Trump electorate.
Women are outvoting men in Georgia by about 10 percentage points, an encouraging sign for a Democrat who polls well ahead of the former president with women voters. And according to Democratic analysis, turnout among Black women in the metro Atlanta suburbs is 40% higher in this cycle than at this point in 2020. …”
In 2022, polls seemed to have overstated the GOP turnout, and in 2020 the GOP use of early voting was actively discouraged by Trump and his team.
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(Cont’d)
“… As for Republicans, they’re ecstatic that efforts to encourage early voting seem to be paying off after largely neglecting the practice in 2020.
… Brandon Phillips, a veteran Republican strategist who once led Trump’s Georgia operation, said GOP data modeling shows Trump with an edge of roughly 80,000 votes and that Democrats would be “fading by the day” if the pace continues.
… In DeKalb County, the second-biggest trove of likely Harris votes behind Fulton, only about 34% of voters have cast ballots. That’s far behind turnout topping 40% in many smaller, Trump friendly counties. …”
“… As for Republicans, they’re ecstatic that efforts to encourage early voting seem to be paying off after largely neglecting the practice in 2020.
… Brandon Phillips, a veteran Republican strategist who once led Trump’s Georgia operation, said GOP data modeling shows Trump with an edge of roughly 80,000 votes and that Democrats would be “fading by the day” if the pace continues.
… In DeKalb County, the second-biggest trove of likely Harris votes behind Fulton, only about 34% of voters have cast ballots. That’s far behind turnout topping 40% in many smaller, Trump friendly counties. …”
HintonJamesHeel
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The thing I cling to is that every time there’s supposedly going to be a red wave, it’s the opposite. The polls are very discouraging.
quakerdevil
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This is so similar to 2012. Polls either had it tied or Romney up. Obama won by 4.
CFordUNC
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Which is precisely the entire point of the GOP-backed red wave pollsters flooding the zone with shit.
Ask yourself this: is the Trump campaign currently behaving like they think they are winning or going to win?