2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

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HeelYeah2012 said:
The most direct reasons I voted for Trump, all of which I have shared previously, are:

1) The average person's dollar stretched further than ever before during Trump's first presidency. Now everything from groceries to gas is totally out of control and creating financial strain on the middle class. I personally have been able to save and invest in accordance with my goals under all 3 of Obama/Trump/Biden, because I am young and well-educated and have worked my tail off in my career, so my personal situation has only gotten better under each successive administration since I graduated. But some of my less-fortunate family members are struggling the last 4 years after thriving under Trump.

2) Trump will work to reduce illegal immigration. I had a close childhood friend who died in 2023 of fentanyl overdose so this danger became personal to me in the last couple years.

3) No new wars during Trump's first term. And then after the Afghanistan withdrawal debacle from the Biden administration, it emboldened Putin to move on Ukraine, Hamas to slaughter innocent Jews and the ensuing slaughter of innocent Palestinians in Gaza since, and of course China flirting with Taiwan....

4) Democrats nationwide lost their ever-loving minds during COVID and it opened my mind to which side stands for personal freedom vs which side stands for authoritarian policies and the government being the answer to everything to save us from ourselves (hint: the authoritarian side is the side that likes to accuse the other side of being authoritarian)

5) Drain the swamp.. "The system" in Washington DC and their friends in the news media can't stand Donald Trump. The administrative state in this country is absurd and we need political outsiders in there to clean up as much of the mess as possible. Half the country was led to believe that everything with Joe Biden's health was fine for the last 4 years, and they bought it hook/line/sinker until it was exposed for the world to see on national TV during the debate. If Harris and others will downright lie to you about the mental state of the POTUS, what else are they lying about?
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Regarding gas prices - Do you suspect the collapse in oil production during 2020 had anything to with the subsequent price spike when demand for gas returned?
 
heelinhell said:
Democrats are great at governing but suck at messaging
GQPers are great at messaging but suck at governing
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I’d say that Dems take governing seriously but have such a large voter coalition compared to GOP that messaging is much harder for them. Something as simple as MAGA would never work on the left.

The GOP doesn’t care about governing. They simply want to rule. And I’d say their voters are generally more susceptible to party messaging. The simpler the better.
 
lightbluenc said:
I don't think any messaging matters anymore. There's too much noise, too much misinformation to convince anyone anymore. Hell Elon Musk is literally paying people millions of dollars to convince them and it still might not work.
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That's half right. Traditional argumentative messaging doesn't work so much any more. But you can get people's attention for 5 seconds with ads on YouTube and other places. The images matter.

When I was in grad school, I did a paper on advertising in America in the 20th century. It was so bizarre to see ads in the old days. They were like newspaper articles. They would have at least dozens of words, if not hundreds. They were trying to convince people that their products were better. By the 80s, the ad pros realized that pictures are a thousand words; that a good logo is better than all those old text ads put together; etc.

Political media has been a bit slow to catch onto those trends, but the social media environment is forcing them to. Mazda used to sell cars with "zoom zoom zoom." That's the sort of thing we can do.

And this is why MAGA was successful for Trump. It's unfortunately a great slogan. It's so great that it's become its own political category. Meanwhile, Hillary had "I'm With Her," the worst slogan I can remember. MAGA is now worn out, and I don't know if Trump has anything new. "We're not going back" is very good.
 
superrific said:
That's half right. Traditional argumentative messaging doesn't work so much any more. But you can get people's attention for 5 seconds with ads on YouTube and other places. The images matter.

When I was in grad school, I did a paper on advertising in America in the 20th century. It was so bizarre to see ads in the old days. They were like newspaper articles. They would have at least dozens of words, if not hundreds. They were trying to convince people that their products were better. By the 80s, the ad pros realized that pictures are a thousand words; that a good logo is better than all those old text ads put together; etc.

Political media has been a bit slow to catch onto those trends, but the social media environment is forcing them to. Mazda used to sell cars with "zoom zoom zoom." That's the sort of thing we can do.

And this is why MAGA was successful for Trump. It's unfortunately a great slogan. It's so great that it's become its own political category. Meanwhile, Hillary had "I'm With Her," the worst slogan I can remember. MAGA is now worn out, and I don't know if Trump has anything new. "We're not going back" is very good.
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They didn't sell very many cars with zoom, zoom, zoom.
 
Observations from second day of canvassing for Harris/Waltz:
1) Most people still are not home or fail to come to the door
2) There does still appear to be some people that still have not decided on president and governor (or they’re lying)
3) Bringing up important issues like the ACA contribution to all health insurance availability regardless of preexisting conditions and for children to age 25 and the effects to women’s healthcare related to Dobbs decision can get nods of approval
4) some women feel they need to keep voices low so their MAGA husband watching TV in the other room does not hear the conversation
5) there is opportunity to help provide a ride to the polling place for some residents
6) when you are getting in 10,000+ steps canvassing, you don’t have the time or inclination to get depressed about polling data that is being reported by who knows what source
7) it is not a waste of time to help the GOTV effort. I encourage it for Harris/Stein/Hunt/Jackson/Green supporters. I do not encourage it for Trump/Robinson/etc supporters.
 
1moretimeagain said:
Regarding gas prices - Do you suspect the collapse in oil production during 2020 had anything to with the subsequent price spike when demand for gas returned?
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As has been reiterated ad nauseum, HY doesn't think beyond "Mongo president when gas prices high. Mongo bad". Of course like all idiotic MAGA's he doesn't apply the same criteria the other way - like Trump being POTUS when the pandemic hit.
 
hedge said:
I wonder why HY cited gas prices as evidence that things were totally out of control economically, with the implication being, of course, that it was Biden's fault?
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probably cause he saw them Biden stickers on the pumps
 
Calheel said:
They didn't sell very many cars with zoom, zoom, zoom.
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I thought it was a successful campaign. But then again, I pay even less attention to those sorts of things than I do college football. Anyway, I think you see the point and there are surely many examples of what I'm talking about.

For instance, the very successful "Waaaasssupppp!" ad. Or this one, that might be the most impressive ad I've ever seen.

 
superrific said:
That's half right. Traditional argumentative messaging doesn't work so much any more. But you can get people's attention for 5 seconds with ads on YouTube and other places. The images matter.

When I was in grad school, I did a paper on advertising in America in the 20th century. It was so bizarre to see ads in the old days. They were like newspaper articles. They would have at least dozens of words, if not hundreds. They were trying to convince people that their products were better. By the 80s, the ad pros realized that pictures are a thousand words; that a good logo is better than all those old text ads put together; etc.

Political media has been a bit slow to catch onto those trends, but the social media environment is forcing them to. Mazda used to sell cars with "zoom zoom zoom." That's the sort of thing we can do.

And this is why MAGA was successful for Trump. It's unfortunately a great slogan. It's so great that it's become its own political category. Meanwhile, Hillary had "I'm With Her," the worst slogan I can remember. MAGA is now worn out, and I don't know if Trump has anything new. "We're not going back" is very good.
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Good call. Literally why "Tariffs!" I guess is working. No one cares to know what it is, but if the message is, "I'll make them pay tariffs" then that's all you need.
 
GQNC said:
Observations from second day of canvassing for Harris/Waltz:
1) Most people still are not home or fail to come to the door
2) There does still appear to be some people that still have not decided on president and governor (or they’re lying)
3) Bringing up important issues like the ACA contribution to all health insurance availability regardless of preexisting conditions and for children to age 25 and the effects to women’s healthcare related to Dobbs decision can get nods of approval
4) some women feel they need to keep voices low so their MAGA husband watching TV in the other room does not hear the conversation
5) there is opportunity to help provide a ride to the polling place for some residents
6) when you are getting in 10,000+ steps canvassing, you don’t have the time or inclination to get depressed about polling data that is being reported by who knows what source
7) it is not a waste of time to help the GOTV effort. I encourage it for Harris/Stein/Hunt/Jackson/Green supporters. I do not encourage it for Trump/Robinson/etc supporters.
Click to expand...
Kudos
 
GQNC said:
Observations from second day of canvassing for Harris/Waltz:
1) Most people still are not home or fail to come to the door
2) There does still appear to be some people that still have not decided on president and governor (or they’re lying)
3) Bringing up important issues like the ACA contribution to all health insurance availability regardless of preexisting conditions and for children to age 25 and the effects to women’s healthcare related to Dobbs decision can get nods of approval
4) some women feel they need to keep voices low so their MAGA husband watching TV in the other room does not hear the conversation
5) there is opportunity to help provide a ride to the polling place for some residents
6) when you are getting in 10,000+ steps canvassing, you don’t have the time or inclination to get depressed about polling data that is being reported by who knows what source
7) it is not a waste of time to help the GOTV effort. I encourage it for Harris/Stein/Hunt/Jackson/Green supporters. I do not encourage it for Trump/Robinson/etc supporters.
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#4 gives me more hope for Harris than anything else
 
Trump got 46.1% of the vote in 2016 and 46.8% in 2020, and it does seem as if his ceiling is 47% max, more likely somewhere between 46 and 47%. So I remain skeptical of any poll that shows him getting over 47%. I mean, he could get more than that, but using his first two elections as a baseline it doesn't seem likely.
 
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