2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

[HintonJamesHeel]

Democrats are great at governing but suck at messaging
GQPers are great at messaging but suck at governing

It’s pathetic really. Trump is so disliked we can probably overcome it but I guarantee you Bernie and/or Warren would have spent less time on 1/6 and way more time on how they would make normal Americans lives better.

 

[CFordUNC]

It’s pathetic really. Trump is so disliked we can probably overcome it but I guarantee you Bernie and/or Warren would have spent less time on 1/6 and way more time on how they would make normal Americans lives better.

Lolololol yeah, and gotten destroyed at the ballot box, because you seem to be the only one completely unaware of how unpopular their policy proposals are to our largely-uninformed/ignorant electorate. Give it a break, man. My god.

 

[finesse]

Gas prices peaked at $4.11/gallon in July 2008... I don't remember anyone pissing and moaning about gas prices back then.

I did. It cost me 130 bucks to fill up my work van and I had to about twice a week.

 

[superrific]

The Democrats have done such a bad job explaining the issues this cycle. Gosh, I hate voting for them and wish we would see more progressive candidates.

Harris should have said the following.

1 - inflation was higher when Joe took office because we were coming off a global pandemic. It was a 100 year event. We spent unheard of money (trillions) to ensure we got through it. When you spend at that levels and keep rates low, you are going to see inflation. After we got through it, we saw levels adjust to historic norms. The fact that Harris never could articulate that simple fact is beyond me. In fact, she just pretended it like was all fine. Just tell people it sucked but was necessary and now it’s fixed. That’s all true btw.

2 - Just own that the border policies were bad and they got fixed. Biden should have done her a solid and said he believed the border policies were good and that Harris guided him to correct them and now they are very good. That last part would have been BS but just say my bad and again, as part of good governing we recognize mistakes and adjust and we did that.

3 - don’t talk about rich folks paying their fair share. Don’t talk about how rich corporations will pay more. Only talk about how you will cut taxes for people making less than (choose a number). To the average American, they want to be rich. They might be employed by a corporation. They don’t get that talk. But they will get - i make less than (choose a number) so I guess that will impact me.

4 - quit talking about what a threat Trump is. We all know it. The guys insane. He’s dangerous. He’s also the least popular politician in our history. The public views him as a loon but doesn’t think he’s a huge threat. That lived through four years and some still remember the stupid TV show he was on. When your whole message is the crazy guy will turn us into Germany, folks don’t buy it. Just focus on change. He’s old. He’s had his shot. We are better than him. He was only able to barely beat the least popular woman in America. He lost to a guy who ran for president 100x. Just focus on turning the page.

It’s baked now and I pray Harris wins but if she loses, the party needs to go back and look at messaging. MSNBC, Twitter, etc is not every day America. Most folks couldn’t explain what happened on 1/6. They don’t care.

I guarantee 100% that the professionals working Kamala's campaign understand how to message way better than you do. They probably have thousands of pages of data on responses to these types of messages. For instance, they've run some ads making each of those points except #2, (I've seen them). Then they can examine the response to the different ads. Which ones got more people to go to the web site, to give money, to engage, etc. They do focus groups. They do this in polls (I've gotten several messaging polls, where the questions ask "if you consider this issue, would you be more willing or less willing to vote for X").

And as far as #2 goes, that is a horrible political strategy. Admitting the border policies were bad does nothing. Anyone who is concerned about them isn't going to believe her that they are "fixed." The GOP is out there saying, "millions of people are streaming into the country" and it's no response to say, "yeah, we did that but we're going to change." That will reassure nobody.

But Kamala is already pushing a different version of this message: Trump killed the border bill that I would sign. And that's why she listens to professionals and not message board posters.

Finally, you want the candidates to be more progressive and also not talk about rich people paying their fair share? Literally the core belief of progressives -- the one that a notoriously fractious group all share -- is that the tax code is unbalanced and needs to be reformed so that Warren Buffet doesn't pay less tax than his secretary (to use a classic example). How exactly do we run as progressives while eschewing the single best, most popular and most effective message that also happens to be at the core of our belief system?

 

[theel4life]

 

[lawtig02]

I know. I was just saying that we wouldn't mind if you did a Lebron or MJ thing and showed off even for your teammates. I don't think any of us will care in the slightest if you were to start a thread every day titled "I told y'all motherfuckers!"

Just wait until we end up winning NC by 4+ points!

 

[hedge]

Gas prices peaked at $4.11/gallon in July 2008... I don't remember anyone pissing and moaning about gas prices back then.

I wonder why HY cited gas prices as evidence that things were totally out of control economically, with the implication being, of course, that it was Biden's fault?

 

[uncjhodges]

I wonder why HY cited gas prices as evidence that things were totally out of control economically, with the implication being, of course, that it was Biden's fault?

Because he’s a fucking idiot

 

[superrific]

That's a lot of fucking LVs. I've never seen a publicly released poll with so many respondents. The error bars on that one should be pretty low (though error bars decrease quite gradually after a certain point).

Keep in mind, though, that the poll ran from Oct 1- Oct 25. So if it's true that Trump has been gaining ground in the last two weeks -- and I'm skeptical that he really has -- then that poll would be a bit too optimistic as a snapshot right now. BUT 4 points is a bigger margin than Kamala had even a month ago (or at least on part with it), so even if this was conducted on October 1, it would be a good data point.

Keep in mind also that error bars only measure "random" error -- that is, undetectable sample biases because of selection on important but unknown factors. They don't measure systemic bias.

Caveats aside, this is a really good poll for Kamala because of the # of respondents. I still think national polls don't mean much, but they mean at least a little more to Kamala because it's looking like Trump's EV advantage is gone. That is, folks are freaking out that her lead is only 1 point nationally and closing -- because in the past, that margin would mean we lose. That's not true any more. But Kamala +4 means we win for sure.

 

[Icky Mettle]

Eh, I kind of disagree. I don’t think the issues matter at all right now. The right doesn’t talk about issues at all anymore. It’s all, “everyone is out to get you unless you vote for us.”

I might argue that Harris and her ads talk to much about the issues.

The dems refuse to play the same game as the republications do and that’s why we keep losing

We keep losing? We (meaning the dems) have won 3 of the last 4 presidential elections and 5 out of the last 8. Dem presidential candidates have won the popular vote in 7 out of that last 8 elections. (And I know that winning the popular vote isn’t the same as winning the election, but it does mean you’re getting more people to vote for you.)

 

[superrific]

Just wait until we end up winning NC by 4+ points!

If you're right about that, there are a few things I'd be willing to do for you, though I suspect you wouldn't want them.

 

[1moretimeagain]

The most direct reasons I voted for Trump, all of which I have shared previously, are:

1) The average person's dollar stretched further than ever before during Trump's first presidency. Now everything from groceries to gas is totally out of control and creating financial strain on the middle class. I personally have been able to save and invest in accordance with my goals under all 3 of Obama/Trump/Biden, because I am young and well-educated and have worked my tail off in my career, so my personal situation has only gotten better under each successive administration since I graduated. But some of my less-fortunate family members are struggling the last 4 years after thriving under Trump.

2) Trump will work to reduce illegal immigration. I had a close childhood friend who died in 2023 of fentanyl overdose so this danger became personal to me in the last couple years.

3) No new wars during Trump's first term. And then after the Afghanistan withdrawal debacle from the Biden administration, it emboldened Putin to move on Ukraine, Hamas to slaughter innocent Jews and the ensuing slaughter of innocent Palestinians in Gaza since, and of course China flirting with Taiwan....

4) Democrats nationwide lost their ever-loving minds during COVID and it opened my mind to which side stands for personal freedom vs which side stands for authoritarian policies and the government being the answer to everything to save us from ourselves (hint: the authoritarian side is the side that likes to accuse the other side of being authoritarian)

5) Drain the swamp.. "The system" in Washington DC and their friends in the news media can't stand Donald Trump. The administrative state in this country is absurd and we need political outsiders in there to clean up as much of the mess as possible. Half the country was led to believe that everything with Joe Biden's health was fine for the last 4 years, and they bought it hook/line/sinker until it was exposed for the world to see on national TV during the debate. If Harris and others will downright lie to you about the mental state of the POTUS, what else are they lying about?

Regarding gas prices - Do you suspect the collapse in oil production during 2020 had anything to with the subsequent price spike when demand for gas returned?

 

[UNCRx85]

Democrats are great at governing but suck at messaging
GQPers are great at messaging but suck at governing

I’d say that Dems take governing seriously but have such a large voter coalition compared to GOP that messaging is much harder for them. Something as simple as MAGA would never work on the left.

The GOP doesn’t care about governing. They simply want to rule. And I’d say their voters are generally more susceptible to party messaging. The simpler the better.

 

[theel4life]

If you're right about that, there are a few things I'd be willing to do for you, though I suspect you wouldn't want them.

 

[superrific]

I don't think any messaging matters anymore. There's too much noise, too much misinformation to convince anyone anymore. Hell Elon Musk is literally paying people millions of dollars to convince them and it still might not work.

That's half right. Traditional argumentative messaging doesn't work so much any more. But you can get people's attention for 5 seconds with ads on YouTube and other places. The images matter.

When I was in grad school, I did a paper on advertising in America in the 20th century. It was so bizarre to see ads in the old days. They were like newspaper articles. They would have at least dozens of words, if not hundreds. They were trying to convince people that their products were better. By the 80s, the ad pros realized that pictures are a thousand words; that a good logo is better than all those old text ads put together; etc.

Political media has been a bit slow to catch onto those trends, but the social media environment is forcing them to. Mazda used to sell cars with "zoom zoom zoom." That's the sort of thing we can do.

And this is why MAGA was successful for Trump. It's unfortunately a great slogan. It's so great that it's become its own political category. Meanwhile, Hillary had "I'm With Her," the worst slogan I can remember. MAGA is now worn out, and I don't know if Trump has anything new. "We're not going back" is very good.

 

[Calheel]

That's half right. Traditional argumentative messaging doesn't work so much any more. But you can get people's attention for 5 seconds with ads on YouTube and other places. The images matter.

When I was in grad school, I did a paper on advertising in America in the 20th century. It was so bizarre to see ads in the old days. They were like newspaper articles. They would have at least dozens of words, if not hundreds. They were trying to convince people that their products were better. By the 80s, the ad pros realized that pictures are a thousand words; that a good logo is better than all those old text ads put together; etc.

Political media has been a bit slow to catch onto those trends, but the social media environment is forcing them to. Mazda used to sell cars with "zoom zoom zoom." That's the sort of thing we can do.

And this is why MAGA was successful for Trump. It's unfortunately a great slogan. It's so great that it's become its own political category. Meanwhile, Hillary had "I'm With Her," the worst slogan I can remember. MAGA is now worn out, and I don't know if Trump has anything new. "We're not going back" is very good.

They didn't sell very many cars with zoom, zoom, zoom.

 

[HeelInTheOzarks]

70k voters? Whoa whoa whoa, can we just get one with 300 people in Ohio?

 

[GQNC]

Observations from second day of canvassing for Harris/Waltz:
1) Most people still are not home or fail to come to the door
2) There does still appear to be some people that still have not decided on president and governor (or they’re lying)
3) Bringing up important issues like the ACA contribution to all health insurance availability regardless of preexisting conditions and for children to age 25 and the effects to women’s healthcare related to Dobbs decision can get nods of approval
4) some women feel they need to keep voices low so their MAGA husband watching TV in the other room does not hear the conversation
5) there is opportunity to help provide a ride to the polling place for some residents
6) when you are getting in 10,000+ steps canvassing, you don’t have the time or inclination to get depressed about polling data that is being reported by who knows what source
7) it is not a waste of time to help the GOTV effort. I encourage it for Harris/Stein/Hunt/Jackson/Green supporters. I do not encourage it for Trump/Robinson/etc supporters.

 

[Enigma94]

Regarding gas prices - Do you suspect the collapse in oil production during 2020 had anything to with the subsequent price spike when demand for gas returned?

As has been reiterated ad nauseum, HY doesn't think beyond "Mongo president when gas prices high. Mongo bad". Of course like all idiotic MAGA's he doesn't apply the same criteria the other way - like Trump being POTUS when the pandemic hit.

 

[CallMeTyler]

Without a panel of undecideds on CNN, I'm just not sure how to feel. I mean, that most sensible bloc of voters are the tip, the dangling participle of the American electorate.