lightbluenc
Esteemed Member
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Probably usually means above 50%. I'm curious what it means in poll-speak, though. Like if I tell my wife I will probably take care of something, it's pretty certain I will. If I tell my 10 year old that I will probably get him a toy next month, it's unlikely I will. So when someone tells that to a pollster, I wonder what it means.With those numbers if 44% of those Will probably vote folks actually vote Harris wins. Less than 44% and Trump wins.
I was doing the same math. Probably has to mean more than 44%, right? We've got this in the bag!Probably usually means above 50%. I'm curious what it means in poll-speak, though. Like if I tell my wife I will probably take care of something, it's pretty certain I will. If I tell my 10 year old that I will probably get him a toy next month, it's unlikely I will. So when someone tells that to a pollster, I wonder what it means.
Also, "Certain to vote" is not actually a 100% chance. It might be pretty high, but I would always prefer a vote already cast to one that is "certain" to be cast later.
And finally, I really wish that pollsters would start reporting decimals on their polls. I mean, in a sense, it's foolish because the margin or error would swamp that increased precision, but in the sense that people are constantly crunching different numbers to analyze things because it distracts them temporarily from the fact that actually it's out of our control, I'd like the decimal. Because this calculation goes quite differently if it's really 50.4/46.6 than 49.6/47.4
80%. The data in Pennsylvania makes it seem like Harris will win.Lots of polls is seems have Trump ahead of Harris in PA. That’s worrisome to me. Isn’t it something like whoever wins PA has 85% chance of winning the election?
Maybe a lot of Vegas service workers who misguidedly think Trump’s no-tax-on-tips plan is really gonna help them?What is up with Nevada? Is it young bros? Wtf
Or that he would ever even do it. A terrible idea that won’t see the light of day in Congress.Maybe a lot of Vegas service workers who misguidedly think Trump’s no-tax-on-tips plan is really gonna help them?
Are Pennsylvania polls really not good?80%. The data in Pennsylvania makes it seem like Harris will win.
Certain ones.Are Pennsylvania polls really not good?