2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

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lightbluenc said:
I'm very curious about that firewall as well.

And I know we can't correlate 2020 with 2024 since it was a weird time. Buuut I'm going to anyways

Mail Ballots Returned by Party Registration 2020​

Democrats 1,702,484
Republicans 623,404
No Party Affiliation 283,673

So in 2020 the "firewall" was over 1 million + Dems. So why is this 400k number supposed to be so good?
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R’s weren’t voting early in ‘20. They’ve been given permission to do so in ‘24 and are.
 
Quinnipiac PA:

“
Trump receives 47 percent support among likely voters, Harris receives 46 percent support, Green Party candidate Jill Stein receives 2 percent support, and Libertarian Party candidate Chase Oliver receives 1 percent support. Two percent of likely voters refused to respond and 1 percent are undecided. This is the closest this multi-candidate race has been in Pennsylvania.

In Quinnipiac University's October 9 poll, Harris received 49 percent support, Trump received 46 percent support, and Stein and Oliver each received 1 percent support in a race that was too close to call.

… Men back Trump 57 - 37 percent, while women back Harris 55 - 39 percent. In Quinnipiac University's October 9 poll, men backed Trump 52 - 41 percent, while women backed Harris 55 - 40 percent. …”

poll.qu.edu

Pennsylvania 2024: In Tight Presidential Race, Trump Gets Boost From Men, U.S. Senate Race Tightens, Quinnipiac University Pennsylvania Poll Finds; Reps And Dems Agree: 2024 Presidential Election Is Single Most Important Of Their Lifetimes | Quinni

"The gender gap widens with Trump increasing his lead among men, as what remains a very tight race heads into the final stretch," said Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Tim Malloy.
poll.qu.edu poll.qu.edu
 
Turnout gap in NC is now almost white +10. Hoping black people go to the polls next week. Or maybe the black Trumpers are reconsidering their support and deciding to sit this one out.

White +10 is unfortunately a great number for the GOP and it might be why Kamala's folks aren't feeling great about NC. That said, women still have a 3 point edge in turnout, and a 10 point lead over men in terms of ballots cast. So that's good, I think.
 
FWIW, we should be looking for polls reflecting the MSG rally in a day or two. I think we will get a more accurate sense of the race at that point.
 
superrific said:
Turnout gap in NC is now almost white +10. Hoping black people go to the polls next week. Or maybe the black Trumpers are reconsidering their support and deciding to sit this one out.

White +10 is unfortunately a great number for the GOP and it might be why Kamala's folks aren't feeling great about NC. That said, women still have a 3 point edge in turnout, and a 10 point lead over men in terms of ballots cast. So that's good, I think.
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Is any analyst focused on that gap or is it just you? I havent seen anyone in NC focus on it before so didn't know if I always missed it or not.

That said, the Black vote is not nearly as consequential in NC as it is GA
 
aGDevil2k said:
Is any analyst focused on that gap or is it just you? I havent seen anyone in NC focus on it before so didn't know if I always missed it or not.

That said, the Black vote is not nearly as consequential in NC as it is GA
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I don't read too many analysts, so it's just me. But whereas the Black vote isn't as consequential in GA, it's still consequential. Didn't you say that if the turnout gap is less than 6, Kamala wins?
 
just got an update for my voting precinct ...

total registered voters : 1828 voters ( 1137 D and 691 UNA, 0 GQPers )

Early votes : 910 D and 541 UNA ( 79.4% )
 
superrific said:
I don't read too many analysts, so it's just me. But whereas the Black vote isn't as consequential in GA, it's still consequential. Didn't you say that if the turnout gap is less than 6, Kamala wins?
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Not me. Or if I did I was drunk. Because I dont really follow it. IMO if it holds similar to last time it's probably fine...the gender gap is what will be the key
 
I watched Tim Miller's interview on the Bulward with Lakshya Jain, a data and polling expert who described Black voter turnout as the major challenge for the Harris campaign in GA. He noted that Black turnout was actually down from 2016-2020 -- yet Biden won. He said it was down again in 2022. So he believes it's a bad trend for the Dems and one that is likely to be a factor in this election, even though he was not making what he'd call a prediction.

I'm not sure what to think. I'd hope Black voters are excited about Harris. And we hear that she has an amazing organization/GOTV operation. And 2020 was an odd situation, given Covid. I'm hopeful that Black turnout supportive of Harris will be in the range needed.

Unless I missed it, they didn't discuss turnout among women. Seems to me that if the relative turnout by women is even slightly higher that expected, then that might be the biggest factor, in general.
 
ole howard1 said:
I watched Tim Miller's interview on the Bulward with Lakshya Jain, a data and polling expert who described Black voter turnout as the major challenge for the Harris campaign in GA. He noted that Black turnout was actually down from 2016-2020 -- yet Biden won. He said it was down again in 2022. So he believes it's a bad trend for the Dems and one that is likely to be a factor in this election, even though he was not making what he'd call a prediction.

I'm not sure what to think. I'd hope Black voters are excited about Harris. And we hear that she has an amazing organization/GOTV operation. And 2020 was an odd situation, given Covid. I'm hopeful that Black turnout supportive of Harris will be in the range needed.

Unless I missed it, they didn't discuss turnout among women. Seems to me that if the relative turnout by women is even slightly higher that expected, then that might be the biggest factor, in general.
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They are not excited in Georgia. There are no other state races like last time to get the black voters out. And, unlike other swing states, there's not much indication that Republicans are willing to switch in any meaningful way. Plus, polling show her behind.

Therefore, its not worth focusing on Ga. Harris might win it if most other swing states go her way, but in a close election I just don't see it.
 
BlueSmoke said:
They are not excited in Georgia. There are no other state races like last time to get the black voters out. And, unlike other swing states, there's not much indication that Republicans are willing to switch in any meaningful way. Plus, polling show her behind.

Therefore, its not worth focusing on Ga. Harris might win it if most other swing states go her way, but in a close election I just don't see it.
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Crazy considering she's, you know, a black candidate for President.
 
ole howard1 said:
I watched Tim Miller's interview on the Bulward with Lakshya Jain, a data and polling expert who described Black voter turnout as the major challenge for the Harris campaign in GA. He noted that Black turnout was actually down from 2016-2020 -- yet Biden won. He said it was down again in 2022. So he believes it's a bad trend for the Dems and one that is likely to be a factor in this election, even though he was not making what he'd call a prediction.

I'm not sure what to think. I'd hope Black voters are excited about Harris. And we hear that she has an amazing organization/GOTV operation. And 2020 was an odd situation, given Covid. I'm hopeful that Black turnout supportive of Harris will be in the range needed.

Unless I missed it, they didn't discuss turnout among women. Seems to me that if the relative turnout by women is even slightly higher that expected, then that might be the biggest factor, in general.
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I'm dubious of using early voting returns to predict anything this year, especially when compared to 2020, in which covid and Trump's dismissal of early voting badly hurt Republicans in key states. Having said that, I would think a key indicator this year would not be the black or other minority vote, but the women's vote. Given what's happened in so many state elections since Roe was overturned I would think the gender gap this year will largely favor Democrats, so the greater the gender gap in turns of voter turnout the better it will be for Democrats. Even then, though, using polls and early voting to predict the election this year is a doubtful exercise at best.
 
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