2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

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336Heel said:
With those numbers if 44% of those Will probably vote folks actually vote Harris wins. Less than 44% and Trump wins.
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Probably usually means above 50%. I'm curious what it means in poll-speak, though. Like if I tell my wife I will probably take care of something, it's pretty certain I will. If I tell my 10 year old that I will probably get him a toy next month, it's unlikely I will. So when someone tells that to a pollster, I wonder what it means.

Also, "Certain to vote" is not actually a 100% chance. It might be pretty high, but I would always prefer a vote already cast to one that is "certain" to be cast later.

And finally, I really wish that pollsters would start reporting decimals on their polls. I mean, in a sense, it's foolish because the margin or error would swamp that increased precision, but in the sense that people are constantly crunching different numbers to analyze things because it distracts them temporarily from the fact that actually it's out of our control, I'd like the decimal. Because this calculation goes quite differently if it's really 50.4/46.6 than 49.6/47.4
 
superrific said:
Probably usually means above 50%. I'm curious what it means in poll-speak, though. Like if I tell my wife I will probably take care of something, it's pretty certain I will. If I tell my 10 year old that I will probably get him a toy next month, it's unlikely I will. So when someone tells that to a pollster, I wonder what it means.

Also, "Certain to vote" is not actually a 100% chance. It might be pretty high, but I would always prefer a vote already cast to one that is "certain" to be cast later.

And finally, I really wish that pollsters would start reporting decimals on their polls. I mean, in a sense, it's foolish because the margin or error would swamp that increased precision, but in the sense that people are constantly crunching different numbers to analyze things because it distracts them temporarily from the fact that actually it's out of our control, I'd like the decimal. Because this calculation goes quite differently if it's really 50.4/46.6 than 49.6/47.4
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I was doing the same math. Probably has to mean more than 44%, right? We've got this in the bag!
 
On the topic of how many people have voted early....

I have done a little -- only a little -- phone canvassing for the Harris campaign in NC. I live in SC, but I've called people in NC. I spoke with two women who I believe are Black and they said they'll be voting for Harris but have not voted yet. One said she teaches school, if I remember correctly, and just hasn't had time yet, and the other lady seemed to me to possibly be emphatic about voting on election day.

That isn't much data to go on, obviously. But it is a reminder that people have a variety of reasons for not taking advantage of early voting.

Oh, and I spoke with a woman who I believe is white, and she said she's for Harris but hasn't had a chance to vote yet because of her work schedule.
 
Lots of polls is seems have Trump ahead of Harris in PA. That’s worrisome to me. Isn’t it something like whoever wins PA has 85% chance of winning the election?
 
Morning Consult, YouGov Economist, Ipsos are the high quality LV polls that the pros trust. Harris is up 2-4% on those polls and the Battleground States are all margin of error. It's a tie.

Just like the Comey letter stuff, the polls have a phase delay on the impact of Trump's latest insanity, including the Nazi Party like it's 1939 MSG rally. We could see the blowback trends by the weekend.

In 2012 - polls leaned to Romney right before the election

In 2016, both Hillary and Trump believed HRC was going to win.

Trump underperformed as a candidate and influencer in 2018, 2020, 2022.

It's a sprint to the finish.
 
HeelInTheOzarks said:
Nevada turnout has apparently been high in rural areas for early voting and low in the cities. I wonder if that can somewhat explain the gender gap?
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Cacti and jackrabbits live in rural Nevada. Most of the humans are old and gnarly. Nevada is the 2nd least rural state.
 


I don’t see Robinson getting only 31% of the vote even in the current state of affairs, but if it ever could happen to a major party candidate, I guess this is the one.
 
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