2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

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superrific said:
Seth Abramson is such a fool. Boy does he lose the plot.

It's not good for Kamala to be down 5 in Kansas. She needs to be down 15. Seriously -- there are no points for coming in a close second and it just wastes support.
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TBF, this is an interesting development that is consistent with the Blue/Red divide receding toward the national median. There is some of the same happening in Texas, for example, and in NY and NJ.

It helps explain an apparent anomaly (compared to other elections since 2012) that CBS pollsters were commenting on — if it is not a polling mirage, it could mean that Dems may not need to be +3 nationally to believe polls are tied in swing states.

There are still plenty of outliers (Maryland and Mississippi don’t seem to be reverting to the mean at this point), but the movement seems to be reflective of the continuing shift of party alignment among educated and working class voters.

I don’t think it is a “holy shit the polling error problem has suddenly flipped to undercounting Democratic votes” discovery or moment, but I also don’t think it is meaningless.

Problem is for us all, none of these theories can be tested except by actual results, and if the election is as close as current polls suggest, we’re in for a divisive series of court battles to possibly untangle a winner.
 
I'm still sticking the the theory that a vote for a liberal black woman in 2024 is as likely or more, with the increased partisanship, to be concealed as a vote for a racist asshole in 2016. I surely can't offer any proof but it helps me sleep at night. The logic works in my head.
 
superrific said:
Seth Abramson is such a fool. Boy does he lose the plot.

It's not good for Kamala to be down 5 in Kansas. She needs to be down 15. Seriously -- there are no points for coming in a close second and it just wastes support.
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The “good” thing in regard to this and national polls is she is running behind Biden in large blue states like New York and California. She has no chance of losing these states but This is shrinking her national lead and shrinks the difference between winning the national vote and electoral college
 
NONE OF THIS MATTERS!!!! However, for those still concerned about national polling, the recent YouGov and Morning Consult polls appear to have sent Trump back a tiny bit to 46.6%, with Kamala's lead expanding a hair to +1.4. Most importantly, Trump remains well below 47%, which is increasingly looking like his ceiling in national polling. My view, for what it's worth, is that if Trump remains at 47% or less, Kamala wins, and probably with room to spare.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

National : President: general election : 2024 Polls

The latest political polls and polling averages from FiveThirtyEight.
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I was just reading a guy on Twitter (Swann Marcus) who feels good about Dems winning in Nevada. One of his more recent posts was basically "If Dems turn out the youth vote in Nevada they win; if they don't they lose" and he thinks early returns are good on young voter turnout.

I'm skeptical though, and specifically skeptical because of young males. The Trump campaign, in a number of ways, has basically directed their efforts at young males. Courting Musk's support, going on Rogan, going on Adin Ross's stream, etc - this is all directed at males, and especially 18-29 males. Traditionally a low-propensity voting group. I think there's a very really possibility that the youth vote does turn out like Dem-leaning people are hoping - but that it doesn't end up being nearly as Dem-friendly a demographic as they hope. Females under 30 may break for Kamala at something like a 75/25 rate, but males of that age could easily break for Trump at something like a 60/40 rate or even worse. And that could be enough to push him over the top in swing states like Nevada.

I hope I'm wrong about this. I just think some people are still underrating the extent to which young males in this country have had their attention totally captured by online douchebros.
 
rodoheel said:
I was just reading a guy on Twitter (Swann Marcus) who feels good about Dems winning in Nevada. One of his more recent posts was basically "If Dems turn out the youth vote in Nevada they win; if they don't they lose" and he thinks early returns are good on young voter turnout.

I'm skeptical though, and specifically skeptical because of young males. The Trump campaign, in a number of ways, has basically directed their efforts at young males. Courting Musk's support, going on Rogan, going on Adin Ross's stream, etc - this is all directed at males, and especially 18-29 males. Traditionally a low-propensity voting group. I think there's a very really possibility that the youth vote does turn out like Dem-leaning people are hoping - but that it doesn't end up being nearly as Dem-friendly a demographic as they hope. Females under 30 may break for Kamala at something like a 75/25 rate, but males of that age could easily break for Trump at something like a 60/40 rate or even worse. And that could be enough to push him over the top in swing states like Nevada.

I hope I'm wrong about this. I just think some people are still underrating the extent to which young males in this country have had their attention totally captured by online douchebros.
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Whoever on here suggested the other day that Kamala should get EA Sports to release the new season of Madden next Monday should be hired by the DNC.
 


Not sure how much can be gleaned from this other than early voting continues to grow in popularity from pre-pandemic times, but 2020 remains an outlier for pretty much everything.
 
rodoheel said:
Females under 30 may break for Kamala at something like a 75/25 rate, but males of that age could easily break for Trump at something like a 60/40 rate or even worse. And that could be enough to push him over the top in swing states like Nevada.
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You’re not accounting for turnout. Young women turn out at much higher rates than younger men historically, much less with the current motivation fueled by Dobbs, and trump’s misogyny. Using your numbers, 60% of “not much” does not compare favorably to 75% of “a whole lot.”

Going after young (largely) white men is a desperate play that grew from the fact that they know they’re going to take a shellacking from women. The young male voter impact has been overstated from the beginning.
 
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Black turnout in NC keeps falling behind white turnout. Don't know if that means we're going to see a big election day bump or black people will again show poor turnout.

I completely get why black people can be frustrated with the government, but of course, not voting as a result only locks in future frustration.
 
superrific said:
Black turnout in NC keeps falling behind white turnout. Don't know if that means we're going to see a big election day bump or black people will again show poor turnout.

I completely get why black people can be frustrated with the government, but of course, not voting as a result only locks in future frustration.
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We’ll see what happens but my guess is black turnout in NC will end up being higher than 2016 or 2020, but a little behind 2012.
 
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