2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

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Yeah, I don't think Jain was emphasizing early voting numbers so much -- but trends from 2016-2022. He said he thinks Democrats may turn it around....just that it's a real concern. I'm not sure I think 2020 and 2022 represent too much of serious trend, though I certainly don't know.

I agree about the gender gap.
 
I get wanting to find the "expert" data cruncher to salve the anxiety, I do. Also, Bouzy is throwing shit in hopes that it sticks. If he's wrong he can blame the data, if he's right he can claim a preternatural ability to read the data.

Folks on the left are getting taken for a ride by a crypto bro with numerous accusations against him for scamming people out of their crypto.
 


Rough data for Dems in Nevada to date — Dems have a very slight registration advantage (less than 20,000) but a significant turnout gap so far.

In 2016, Dems had a significant early in person vote turnout advantage, but that flipped to significantly favor the GOP in 2020, especially in the first week of early voting when the GOP had a 133,467 - 90,564 advantage among early voters in the first week (the two sides essentially tied in much lighter turnout the second week). But that was b/c Dems had a huge lead in returned mail
Ballots, 319k to 181k. (Source - https://www.nvsos.gov/sos/home/showpublisheddocument/9062/637419197840270000 )
 
nycfan said:


Rough data for Dems in Nevada to date — Dems have a very slight registration advantage (less than 20,000) but a significant turnout gap so far.

In 2016, Dems had a significant early in person vote turnout advantage, but that flipped to significantly favor the GOP in 2020, especially in the first week of early voting when the GOP had a 133,467 - 90,564 advantage among early voters in the first week (the two sides essentially tied in much lighter turnout the second week). But that was b/c Dems had a huge lead in returned mail
Ballots, 319k to 181k. (Source - https://www.nvsos.gov/sos/home/showpublisheddocument/9062/637419197840270000 )
Click to expand...

It will all come down to how the Indy’s are breaking. I’ve seen Twitter users speculate that young voters are mostly Indy and should break significantly for Dems. I’m skeptical and worried that young males in Vegas are going to break more for Trump than people think. I’m expecting Nevada to break for Trump and become more consistently red, but hope I’m wrong.
 

Last Marquette Law School poll before Election Day finds close presidential, Senate race​

wisconsinexaminer.com

Last Marquette Law School poll before Election Day finds close presidential, Senate race • Wisconsin Examiner

The final Marquette University Law School poll ahead of Election Day 2024 shows tight races at the top of the ticket in Wisconsin
wisconsinexaminer.com wisconsinexaminer.com


“… Harris received 50% of support among likely voters, while Trump received 49%. The previous Marquette poll, conducted in late September, found that Harris received 52% of support and Trump received 48% among likely voters.

… When third party candidates including Robert F. Kennedy and Jill Stein were included in the poll, Harris received 46% of support while Trump received 44% of support. Franklin said voters who are undecided and leaning toward voting for a third-party contribute to the uncertainty in this election. …”
 
IMG_3401.jpeg

politicalwire.com

The Latest Swing State Polls

GEORGIA Trump 48%, Harris 47% (CNN) MICHIGAN Harris 49%, Trump 45% (UMass Lowell) Harris 47%, Trump 46% (Washington Post) Trump 48%, Harris 47% (Mitchell Research) NORTH CAROLINA Trump 47%, Harris 45% (UMass Lowell) Harris 48%,
politicalwire.com politicalwire.com

I’ll be out of pocket for a bit today getting a wisdom tooth removed. See if you can divine the election outcome before I get back.

teeth pain GIF by Christina Lu
 
Little piece on Morning Joe this morning In summary-NC Dems have really forth an effort-ground game door knocking-in Mecklenburg County .While Blue-turnout there has lagged far behind .say, Wake. They sincerely think they will turn it out and carry the State I think
 

Should we be worried about the relatively low turnout thus far? I do get why you can’t compare the early voting data to 2020. We were on the midst of a pandemic then and people wanted avoid crowded precincts on Election Day. A significant number of people were also working from home, so could easily just go out on a whim and vote early.

I also feel like this is the type of story we here over and over again during elections. IIRC there were a number of stories about how Biden wasn’t doing as well as Hillary Clinton with certain demographics, but obviously he did well enough to win states that Hillary did not win.
 
Icky Mettle said:

Should we be worried about the relatively low turnout thus far? I do get why you can’t compare the early voting data to 2020. We were on the midst of a pandemic then and people wanted avoid crowded precincts on Election Day. A significant number of people were also working from home, so could easily just go out on a whim and vote early.

I also feel like this is the type of story we here over and over again during elections. IIRC there were a number of stories about how Biden wasn’t doing as well as Hillary Clinton with certain demographics, but obviously he did well enough to win states that Hillary did not win.
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I’m certainly concerned. I’m flabbergasted by the lagging early Democrat turnout. You have a campaign of literal oligarchs and Nazi sympathizers with plans to create economic hardship in order to concentrate the economic fate of the nation in a few hands; an explicit plan to eliminate abortion at the federal level; the overt desire to turn the military against the populous; eliminate no fault divorce; and eliminate student debt relief programs, yet we aren’t seeing forceful turnout to oppose it. Humans are good at projecting terrible possibilities and awful at believing they could happen. I’m baffled Dems wouldn’t have vote the first fucking opportunity.

Also, we could just be seeing profoundly different voting patterns.
 
I've seen people say Republicans have had a more concerted effort to get their voters out early, but have we not heard the same effort from Dems? Are more Dems just wanting to go on Election Day this year, without there being some push to coordinate that?
 
lightbluenc said:
I've seen people say Republicans have had a more concerted effort to get their voters out early, but have we not heard the same effort from Dems? Are more Dems just wanting to go on Election Day this year, without there being some push to coordinate that?
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Honestly, we haven’t voted yet. October’s been insanely busy for my house. Between youth sports, lots of family and kids’ bdays, and trunk-or-treats, its been something every single weeknight, it seems.

We’ll go tomorrow after work or on Saturday.

FTR, my wife and I are part of (hopefully) the large NC unaffiliated Kamala/straight-D ticket bloc.
 
lightbluenc said:
I've seen people say Republicans have had a more concerted effort to get their voters out early, but have we not heard the same effort from Dems? Are more Dems just wanting to go on Election Day this year, without there being some push to coordinate that?
Click to expand...
Anecdotally, my wife, a registered Dem, has not voted yet and will vote on Election Day. She hasn't received anything - a text, a call, a visit. We live in an fairly liberal neighborhood in Forsyth County. I'm very surprised. I voted early (last weekend) and did receive a few text messages prior to voting encouraging me to vote, but nothing else.
 
nycfan said:
IMG_3401.jpeg

politicalwire.com

The Latest Swing State Polls

GEORGIA Trump 48%, Harris 47% (CNN) MICHIGAN Harris 49%, Trump 45% (UMass Lowell) Harris 47%, Trump 46% (Washington Post) Trump 48%, Harris 47% (Mitchell Research) NORTH CAROLINA Trump 47%, Harris 45% (UMass Lowell) Harris 48%,
politicalwire.com politicalwire.com

I’ll be out of pocket for a bit today getting a wisdom tooth removed. See if you can divine the election outcome before I get back.

teeth pain GIF by Christina Lu
Click to expand...
Come down to chapel hill and I'll get it for you, and I'll put the zizzle on the overhead TV so you can keep on moderatin'.
 
lightbluenc said:
I've seen people say Republicans have had a more concerted effort to get their voters out early, but have we not heard the same effort from Dems? Are more Dems just wanting to go on Election Day this year, without there being some push to coordinate that?
Click to expand...
no it's just we always assume dems vote more early (just compared to the GOP) but maybe EDay seems more balanced
 
lightbluenc said:
I've seen people say Republicans have had a more concerted effort to get their voters out early, but have we not heard the same effort from Dems? Are more Dems just wanting to go on Election Day this year, without there being some push to coordinate that?
Click to expand...
🤷
I think I’m most baffled at the moment by the lagging black votes in GA and NC.

Have the lies about trans issues really struck that loud a cord with the underlying conservatism of many black communities? A cord so loud they ignore the nationwide plan for stop and frisk; plan to eliminate discrimination in hiring; to gut social programs like food stamps, school lunches, essentially any perceived “fluff” in public education; the plan to turn Medicaid and Medicare into oligarchic slush funds; how about raising the retirement age and increasing the threshold for overtime; what about the plan for expansion of prisons?

Again, maybe just shifts in voting practices, but it’s alarming.
 
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