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2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden
- Thread starter nycfan
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Come on down ballot, carry Harris through!
Bad news on NC. Being from Georgia, I have this concern about my state. Not sure I see a problem scrolling thru early voting by county thou. My concern is that there is no Raphael Warnock or Stacey Abrams on the ballot this time around.
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Details from YouGov poll of NC:
“… Registered voters who were also likely voters narrowly changed support, with both Harris and Trump receiving 47 percent, the poll showed.
The poll also showed that 20 percent of respondents said they were more likely to vote because of the hurricane, compared to 2 percent who said they are less likely to vote.
The survey revealed that the majority of registered voters, 59 percent, said they, their families, or close friends had been impacted by Helene, with 21 percent saying they experienced “a lot of impact.”
Governmental agencies’ responses are a main concern in voters’ minds, the poll revealed, with 68 percent of Democrats saying that federal and state agencies are doing either “very good” or “good.” Twenty-four percent of Republicans said the same, the survey showed.
Meanwhile, 57 percent of Republicans said agencies were doing a “very poor” or “poor” job, compared to the 12 percent of Democrats that said the same, the poll found.
Eighty-four percent of Republicans said Trump would likely provide resources to the state in the aftermath of Helene, while 89 percent of Democrats said the same of Harris.
The top issues for North Carolina voters were the economy at 71 percent, immigration at 41 percent and health care at 34 percent, the survey found.
The majority of voters, 62 percent, either said it was either “highly likely” or “somewhat likely” that campaign workers would “try to fraudulently change the outcome of the election,” the survey found.
Nearly 50 percent of respondents said they were “not at all” confident that Trump would accept the election results, the survey revealed. If Trump wins, 65 percent said they were “very” or “somewhat” confident Harris would accept the results, compared to 36 percent who said they were “not at all” or “only a little” confident. …”
“… Registered voters who were also likely voters narrowly changed support, with both Harris and Trump receiving 47 percent, the poll showed.
The poll also showed that 20 percent of respondents said they were more likely to vote because of the hurricane, compared to 2 percent who said they are less likely to vote.
The survey revealed that the majority of registered voters, 59 percent, said they, their families, or close friends had been impacted by Helene, with 21 percent saying they experienced “a lot of impact.”
Governmental agencies’ responses are a main concern in voters’ minds, the poll revealed, with 68 percent of Democrats saying that federal and state agencies are doing either “very good” or “good.” Twenty-four percent of Republicans said the same, the survey showed.
Meanwhile, 57 percent of Republicans said agencies were doing a “very poor” or “poor” job, compared to the 12 percent of Democrats that said the same, the poll found.
Eighty-four percent of Republicans said Trump would likely provide resources to the state in the aftermath of Helene, while 89 percent of Democrats said the same of Harris.
The top issues for North Carolina voters were the economy at 71 percent, immigration at 41 percent and health care at 34 percent, the survey found.
The majority of voters, 62 percent, either said it was either “highly likely” or “somewhat likely” that campaign workers would “try to fraudulently change the outcome of the election,” the survey found.
Nearly 50 percent of respondents said they were “not at all” confident that Trump would accept the election results, the survey revealed. If Trump wins, 65 percent said they were “very” or “somewhat” confident Harris would accept the results, compared to 36 percent who said they were “not at all” or “only a little” confident. …”
Harris, Trump tied in North Carolina with Helene weighing on voters’ minds: Survey
Vice President Harris and former President Trump are neck-and-neck in North Carolina, as the aftermath of Hurricane Helene weighs on voters’ minds, according to a new Elon University Poll. Th…
thehill.com
lawtig02
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Extreme red wave pollster. As in, add +2 to Kamala in every state.
aGDevil2k
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that's good stuff
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Props for effective use of Guido/Marcello.
superrific
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Not that bad. In 2020, white turnout was 11 points higher than black turnout. It's about 8 now. And the gender gap so far is a bit wider than it was.
lightbluenc
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This. Need that black vote turnout to be 10% or less than white turnout. Also if R/D/U turnout stays close then that's great too. There will be more separation as we get closer, but if U can be less than 9% of R and if D can be 5% less than R then thats great.
lawtig02
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I only have personal knowledge about Mecklenburg, and I have no doubt we'll continue to lag behind most other counties in terms of total eligible voter participation, but I'll be very surprised if the final tallies show black turnout in NC at less than 2020 levels. As I said earlier, it may not reach 2008 or 2012 levels, but I'm confident it will be better than 2016 or 2020.
superrific
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So far, ratio of Wake:Meck total votes seems about what it was in 2020, by my eyeballs.
SnoopRob
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lightbluenc
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Really hoping those probably will vote folks show up. Insane how the disinterested people get to decide the election.
With those numbers if 44% of those Will probably vote folks actually vote Harris wins. Less than 44% and Trump wins.Really hoping those probably will vote folks show up. Insane how the disinterested people get to decide the election.
DiehardHeelFan
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superrific
Legend of ZZL
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Probably usually means above 50%. I'm curious what it means in poll-speak, though. Like if I tell my wife I will probably take care of something, it's pretty certain I will. If I tell my 10 year old that I will probably get him a toy next month, it's unlikely I will. So when someone tells that to a pollster, I wonder what it means.
Also, "Certain to vote" is not actually a 100% chance. It might be pretty high, but I would always prefer a vote already cast to one that is "certain" to be cast later.
And finally, I really wish that pollsters would start reporting decimals on their polls. I mean, in a sense, it's foolish because the margin or error would swamp that increased precision, but in the sense that people are constantly crunching different numbers to analyze things because it distracts them temporarily from the fact that actually it's out of our control, I'd like the decimal. Because this calculation goes quite differently if it's really 50.4/46.6 than 49.6/47.4
I was doing the same math. Probably has to mean more than 44%, right? We've got this in the bag!