2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

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I think that's pretty close to reality. My brother lives in Michigan. He wasn't going to vote because "humans are awful" (he's very much liberal) but the Kamala campaign essentially badgered him into doing so.

My wife's family also lives in Michigan. They've heard nothing. Her aunt was desperately trying to figure out how to do her absentee ballot and there was nobody from Trump campaign to help her.
 
Black turnout in NC keeps falling behind white turnout. Don't know if that means we're going to see a big election day bump or black people will again show poor turnout.

I completely get why black people can be frustrated with the government, but of course, not voting as a result only locks in future frustration.
Bad news on NC. Being from Georgia, I have this concern about my state. Not sure I see a problem scrolling thru early voting by county thou. My concern is that there is no Raphael Warnock or Stacey Abrams on the ballot this time around.
 
Details from YouGov poll of NC:

“… Registered voters who were also likely voters narrowly changed support, with both Harris and Trump receiving 47 percent, the poll showed.

The poll also showed that 20 percent of respondents said they were more likely to vote because of the hurricane, compared to 2 percent who said they are less likely to vote.

The survey revealed that the majority of registered voters, 59 percent, said they, their families, or close friends had been impacted by Helene, with 21 percent saying they experienced “a lot of impact.”

Governmental agencies’ responses are a main concern in voters’ minds, the poll revealed, with 68 percent of Democrats saying that federal and state agencies are doing either “very good” or “good.” Twenty-four percent of Republicans said the same, the survey showed.

Meanwhile, 57 percent of Republicans said agencies were doing a “very poor” or “poor” job, compared to the 12 percent of Democrats that said the same, the poll found.

Eighty-four percent of Republicans said Trump would likely provide resources to the state in the aftermath of Helene, while 89 percent of Democrats said the same of Harris.

The top issues for North Carolina voters were the economy at 71 percent, immigration at 41 percent and health care at 34 percent, the survey found.

The majority of voters, 62 percent, either said it was either “highly likely” or “somewhat likely” that campaign workers would “try to fraudulently change the outcome of the election,” the survey found.

Nearly 50 percent of respondents said they were “not at all” confident that Trump would accept the election results, the survey revealed. If Trump wins, 65 percent said they were “very” or “somewhat” confident Harris would accept the results, compared to 36 percent who said they were “not at all” or “only a little” confident. …”

 
Bad news on NC. Being from Georgia, I have this concern about my state. Not sure I see a problem scrolling thru early voting by county thou. My concern is that there is no Raphael Warnock or Stacey Abrams on the ballot this time around.
Not that bad. In 2020, white turnout was 11 points higher than black turnout. It's about 8 now. And the gender gap so far is a bit wider than it was.
 
Not that bad. In 2020, white turnout was 11 points higher than black turnout. It's about 8 now. And the gender gap so far is a bit wider than it was.
This. Need that black vote turnout to be 10% or less than white turnout. Also if R/D/U turnout stays close then that's great too. There will be more separation as we get closer, but if U can be less than 9% of R and if D can be 5% less than R then thats great.
 
This. Need that black vote turnout to be 10% or less than white turnout. Also if R/D/U turnout stays close then that's great too. There will be more separation as we get closer, but if U can be less than 9% of R and if D can be 5% less than R then thats great.
I only have personal knowledge about Mecklenburg, and I have no doubt we'll continue to lag behind most other counties in terms of total eligible voter participation, but I'll be very surprised if the final tallies show black turnout in NC at less than 2020 levels. As I said earlier, it may not reach 2008 or 2012 levels, but I'm confident it will be better than 2016 or 2020.
 
I only have personal knowledge about Mecklenburg, and I have no doubt we'll continue to lag behind most other counties in terms of total eligible voter participation, but I'll be very surprised if the final tallies show black turnout in NC at less than 2020 levels. As I said earlier, it may not reach 2008 or 2012 levels, but I'm confident it will be better than 2016 or 2020.
So far, ratio of Wake:Meck total votes seems about what it was in 2020, by my eyeballs.
 
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